New 4 Round NFL Mock Draft — March 8th

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ROUNDS 5-7 ARE NOT UPDATED YET!!!  ONLY ROUNDS 1-4 ARE NEW.  THE OTHER ROUNDS WILL BE UPDATED THROUGHOUT THE WEEK, SO CHECK BACK.  ROUNDS 1-4 HAVE BEEN UPDATED TODAY!!!

3/7/09

I’ll mention this again later in the mock below, but I am really getting sick of all this talk about Malcolm Jenkins having to be a safety now that he ran a 4.55.  This is getting ridiculous.  Vontae Davis, a supposed “incredible athlete” ran a 4.49.  So come on now, am I really supposed to believe that a 6/100ths of a second is such a big deal that Jenkins can’t run with receivers but Davis can.  Its sad how many draft “experts” out there are now calling for Jenkins to switch positions.  Any NFL team with scouts and GMs smarter than a fifth grader will certainly see that if Jenkins could handle playing corner his entire career, he’ll be fine at CB in the pros.  I can’t wait for him to run a 4.49 of his own and listen to everyone say, “OK, now he can be a corner again.”  People should really learn to think for themselves.

As always, new picks in GREEN.

1.  DET — Matt Stafford, QB, Georgia, 6022 225, 4.84 — Stafford is still the top pick.  The Lions have too much money tied up in their current offensive line to spend anymore on Jason Smith with the first pick.  I still think there’s an all-timer of an outside chance that someone falls in love with Stafford, or more likely Jason Smith, and trades up here, but if the Lions stay put, then it has to be Stafford.  The best I’ve heard it said:  they need a new face for their franchise since Matt Millen is still the Lions’ mugshot and he’s not even employed by the team.  Welcome to Detroit Matthew Stafford.  Don’t trip on Joey Harrington’s body.

2.  STL — Jason Smith, OT, Baylor, 6050 309, 5.22 — After all the dust has settled, this Smith is now the unquestioned top OT in the draft.  He’s quick.  He’s got great length.  He plays with a nasty mean streak.  And his ceiling is lofty considering he’s a converted tight end with great success in limited time at the position.  The combine was kind to Smith, and he was great in the interrogation room.  The Rams have to find a successor for Orlando Pace, and this guy should be an achor for about 10-15 years.  If Marc Bulger is ever going to be successful again, the Rams have to find a way to keep him upright.

3.  KC — Aaron Curry, LB, Wake Forest, 6016 254, 4.56 — When you’re already considered possibly the best prospect in the draft, it’s helpful to run faster than more than half of the cornerbacks at the combine.  Curry is not a guy who will be on Sportscenter every night, but there are no weaknesses to his game.  He is incredibly gifted athletically, and with the speed he showed in Indy, he should help the Chiefs actually get some pressure on opposing quarterbacks.  Now that Matt Cassell is the QB, Kansas City can focus on their defense, and with Curry they get a guy who can pair with Derrick Johnson to give them an excellent linebacking corps for years.  He’ll be a great fit in the new 3-4, whether he lines up inside or out.

4.  SEA — Michael Crabtree, WR, Texas Tech, 6013 215, ??? — I really wanted to put BJ Raji here, but after the Hawks signed Colin Cole, it looks like DT is no longer a contender for top priority.  With that position out of the way, it wouldn’t matter if Crabtree had run a 4.7, he is still Seattle’s guy.  Matt Hasselbeck isn’t done yet, and with the unquestioned top receiver in the draft staring Seattle in the face, they have to take him.  Injured receivers have hurt them for a while, but they need Crabtree bad.  If Hasselbeck finally has a legitimate number one target, the passing game will get back on track, which will in turn opening some lanes for the running game.  Unless Crabtree measures 5-06 at his pro day, he’s a virtual lock.

5.  CLE — Brian Orakpo, DE/OLB, Texas, 6030 263, 4.70 — The Cassell trade hurts the Browns here.  Until now, it looked like Aaron Curry might slide to this spot giving Cleveland a new inside linebacker to solidify the middle of their D.  Now it looks like they’ll have to build from the outside in.  Orakpo should fit excellently as an outside linebacker or a rush end in the Browns’ 3-4.  Everette Brown got some consideration here, but Orakpo has better measurables and has a better shot at holding up in he has to play from the line.  Cleveland managed only 17 sacks last season and Orakpo was better at getting to the quarterback than just about anyone in 2008.  Previous pick:  Everette Brown

6.  CIN — Eugene Monroe, OT, UVA, 6052 309, 5.16 — The Bengals shouldn’t consider anyone else.  If Monroe is available here, you take him.  This O line is awful and Carson Palmer will never be the same again if someone isn’t drafted to protect him.  Monroe wasn’t quite as impressive as Smith, but he is clearly the number two OT in the draft, and is well worth this pick.  Teams with major rebuilding projects (like the Dolphins and Browns a couple years ago) have made major strides by selecting an OT, and the Bengals should follow suit.  Jason Smith may have the highest ceiling at the position, but Monroe isn’t far off and is probably the safest tackle in the draft. 

7.  OAK — BJ Raji, DT, Boston College, 6014 337, 5.13 — I know, I know, BJ Raji would make a lot of sense here, and hopefully Al Davis agrees with that logic.  So, I’ve changed the pick to Raji.  Sure Davis likes flash, and although Raji doesn’t run a 4.5, he is somewhat flashy due to the fact that he is the unquestioned number one DT on any draft board.  I mean, they took Robert Gallery, and he can’t run a great 40.  Plus, Davis probably wets himself everytime he sees the video of Raji using one Notre Dame player to tackle another.  The Raiders need help in the middle of their defense, and Raji will give them a force on the line for years.  Not only is he big and strong enough to hold up against the run, but he can help free up some space for Derrick Burgess to get to the quarterback from the outside.  Previous pick:  Brian Orakpo

8.  JAX — Malcolm Jenkins, CB, Ohio State, 6001 204, 4.55 — Yeah the Jaguars need an OT.  And yeah they need a deep threat at receiver.  But not even Jacksonville should be dumb enough to reach for one of those spots with this pick.  Especially if Jenkins is still available here.  The Jags got burned as consistently as any team last year, and I don’t care if Jenkins ran a 4.55 or not, he can still play corner.  Plus, if for some reason he ends up at safety, that fills a need opposite Reggie Nelson.  The Jags often surprise with brainless picks, but this year even they should see that getting Jenkins here is a steal.

9.  GB — Everette Brown, OLB, FSU, 6014 256, 4.73 — There’s no question that the Packers need help getting to the quarterback.  They have a few linemen who should rotate around the front of their new 3-4 alignment, so the pass rushing help will have to come from the outside linebacker spot.  Watch some film of Brown and you’ll see that he is extraordinarily adept at getting to the quarterback.  Especially when he comes from a standing position.  Brown is a violent tackler who plays with speed beyond his 40 time.  If anyone is going to help the Packers get pressure on opposing QBs, its Brown.  This pick looks like a lock if Raji is off the board, which he will be.  Previous pick:  BJ Raji

10.  SF — Mark Sanchez, QB, 6021 227, 4.88 — The 49ers are going to have a hard time passing on Sanchez now that he should be available per the Cassell trade.  Mike Singletary has publicly stated that he wants a pass rusher and a pass blocker in the early stages of the draft, but you don’t pass on a potential franchise QB when Shaun Hill is holding off Alex Smith as your starter.  Sanchez is a little raw maybe, but his upside is amazing, and his hands are bigger than Smith’s so he should be able to hold on to the ball.  The Niners can get a pass blocker and a pass rusher in later rounds.  The only time they can get a QB like Sanchez is right here.

11.  BUF — Aaron Maybin, DE, 6036 249, 4.89 — The Bills have a few needs that must be adressed early on.  They need a tight end, a pass rusher, and a center.  The only position worth looking at with the eleventh pick is DE.  Maybin is a little undersized, but he is taller than I expected, and I think he’s a good fit in the 4-3.  He really stepped up this year and became a pass rushing terror for a great Penn St defense.  The Bills had good success with former Nittany Lion Paul Posluszny so I think they will be comfortable taking Maybin here.  If he can generate pressure on opposing quarterbacks, this defense should be vastly improved, and the team should avoid another monumental meltdown.

12.  DEN — Tyson Jackson, DE, LSU, 6042 296, 4.91 — The Broncos have been very active this offseason, and a few of their top needs like MLB, CB, and S have been addressed.  The one position that still needs filling in the new 3-4 that is worth fixing here is DE.  Jackson is not as fast as some of the other guys at his position, but he is the best pure 3-4 DE in the draft.  Denver cannot be successful defensively in the new alignment with guys like Elvis Dumervil at end.  Jackson is strong against the run and is deceptively adept at getting to the QB.  He will be a great fit for the Broncos.

13.  WAS — Michael Oher, OT, Ole Miss, 6044 309, 5.32 — The Redskins took care of a major need by overpaying for Albert Haynesworth.  Now that the DT position is solidified, it’s time to take care of the O line.  Oher is a tricky selection here.  Some would say Andre Smith makes more sense, but Chris Samuels will eventually need to be replaced and I don’t think Andre has the lateral quickness to play Left Tackle as a pro.  Oher has been up and down all offseason, but he was impressive in Mobile, and I think he can man the right side before eventually taking over for Samuels at LT.  With all the top DEs gone, Oher is the only selection that makes sense.

14.  NO — Vontae Davis, CB, Illinois, 5111 203, 4.49 — I don’t care if Tracy Porter is coming back.  In fact, I don’t care if Deion Sanders found the fountain of youth and agrees to play for the Saints for free.  New Orleans needs to finally address the corner position in round one.  Davis has really closed the gap between himself and Jenkins as the top corner available (even though his 4.49 is impossible to differentiate from Jenkins’ 4.55 to the naked eye), and he will be a tough shutdown corner for the Saints.  Safety is a possibility here, but I don’t think the Saints will reach.  If they trade down, then Louis Delmas makes sense, but If they stay put it’s got to be Davis.

15.  HOU — Sean Smith, CB/S, Utah, 6035 214, 4.53 — Smith turned some heads in Indy.  He is tall and rangy at 6-03, and his hips were very fluid in drills for a guy his size.  As an added bonus, he fills two needs for the Texans.  If he ends up at corner he will be dangerous opposite Dunta Robinson.  If he ends up at safety, he fills a long standing need for a ball hawking center fielder.  Bottom line, now that the Texans have signed Antonio Coleman to play end, Smith makes the most sense here.  Outside linebacker could be the pick, but if the Texans pass on Smith I think they will regret it.

16.  SD — Andre Smith, OT, Alabama, 6040 332, ??? — I’ve had Peria Jerry here for a long time, and with Igor Olshansky now gone, that could happen.  But if Smith falls to them here, the Chargers can’t pass on him.  Sure there are lots of concerns now that he has behaved like a weirdo all offseason, but to get a guy who was at one point the top prospect in scouts’ eyes with the 16th pick is just too good to pass up.  The Chargers need help on the right side of their line and Smith looks like a solid right tackle.  He’s got great size and strength and should keep Ladainian Tomlinson near the top of the league for a few more years.  There’s still a good chance that he’ll be gone by this spot, but if he’s not, he will have to become a Charger.

17.  NYJ — Knowshon Moreno, RB, Georgia, 5105 217, 4.60 — The Jets look to me like they have solidified 90% of their defense through free agency.  The only missing link now is a starting corner opposite Darrelle Revis, but the corner class this year is much deeper than the running back class.  Which is why Moreno will be the pick.  No matter who lines up at QB, a strong running game will take some pressure off of him.  Thomas Jones had a good year, but he’s getting old.  Adding Moreno to the mix along with Leon Washington (who is going to get more carries this year) will give the Jets one of the best rushing attacks in the league.  Moreno should eventually take over as the starter, but even if he splits carries with Washington his whole career it won’t be all that bad considering the recent successes of two-back systems.  Previous pick:  DJ Moore

18.  CHI — Jeremy Maclin, WR, Missouri, 6001 198, 4.45 — Still got Maclin here.  I think his 40 time solidified the fact that he’ll be available here, and the Bears are desperate for a receiver.  Maclin looks a lot like Bernard Berrian to me, and he was the last receiver in Chicago who actually struck fear into opposing secondaries.  If Kyle Orton is ever going to be anything other than serviceable, he has to get a receiver who can be a true number one, not a guy like Devin Hester who is a better kick returner than pass catcher.  Offensive line is always a possibility for Lovie Smith, but Maclin represents better value than any of the remainig OTs.

19.  TB — Josh Freeman, QB, Kansas St, 6056 248, 4.97 — Bringing in Derrick Ward pretty much eliminated the possibility of this pick being a running back.  And it’s been said that a new regime usually means a new quarterback.  Freeman is the unquestioned number three QB in the draft, and I’ve been saying for a while that he would likely sneak into round one so here he is.  There isn’t a more physically imposing passer in the draft, and Freeman is suprisingly agile for a such a big guy with a rocket arm.  Tampa Bay let Jeff Garcia go, and I can’t buy that any of the current guys left on the roster are the answer.  Receiver is a possibility, but they won’t find another QB in the draft as talented as Freeman.  Previous pick:  Knowshon Moreno

20.  DET — Rey Maualuga, MLB, USC, 6016 249, 4.83 — After all that, it still looks like Maualuga will be the first USC linebacker off the board.  Paris Lenon and Jordan Dizon just plain suck.  The Lions have to find a new inside backer if their defense is ever going to be better than a powder puff squad.  Maualuga may not measure as well as some guys, but he is a vicious tackler who can make plays all over the field.  He might be a better fit in a 3-4, but I think that MLB is a bigger need than OLB.  Even drafting Clay Matthews or Brian Cushing would leave a major hole in the middle.  If Maualuga drops this far, the Lions would be crazy not to grab him.

21.  PHI — Chris Wells, RB, Ohio St, 6010 235, 4.59 — Sure they need two offensive tackles, but they just signed Stacy Andrews which means they likely won’t spend first pick money on another OT with this pick.  The Eagles struggled to convert short yardage and goal line situations last year, and now that Correll Buckhalter is gone, there is no back on this team who can pick up the tough yards.  Wells is a bruiser who would be a great complement to the quick Brian Westbrook.  If the Eagles can start converting third and short, they will be a lot more successful at keeping drives alive.

22.  MIN — Jamon Meredith, OT, S Carolina, 6045 305, 5.03 — Meredith had an incredible combine and is now the third tackle on some teams’ boards.  Despite the fact that he may be a better fit on the left side, he played some guard in college and showed the strength to man the right side of the line.  Josh Freeman is a possibility here, but I think the Vikes will make a play for Sage Rosenfels thus eliminating the need for a QB.  Corner is a need as well, but Meredith is a better prospect than any remaining DBs, and he should allow Adrian Peterson to actually gain yards running to the right.  Imagine how scary that running game will be if Peterson gets even more help up front.

23.  NE — Brian Cushing, LB, USC, 6027 243, 4.79 — The Patriots are in dire need of some young blood at LB.  They did just sign Tully Banta Cain, but he is serviceable at best, and even if he lines up on the outside, Cushing has shown the versatility to play inside next to Jared Mayo if needed.  Cushing has rocketed up draft boards with his play in Mobile and his tenacity.  He should be a perfect fit in Boston.  It wouldn’t surprise me too much to see the Pats go corner here, but I gotta believe it would be hard to pass on a guy who can play more than one position for your defense which is a trait the Pats covet.

24.  ATL — Peria Jerry, DT, Ole Miss, 6017 299, ??? — The Falcons have been desperate for a dominant DT for a long time.  Taking Matt Ryan over Glenn Dorsey may have been the right choice, but it still left a gaping hole in the middle of their D line.  Jerry is a lot like Dorsey, but may be better value here than Dorsey was with the third pick last year.  If he can clog the middle and effectively take on blockers, then the new faces at LB will have a much easier time replacing departed starts Michael Boley and Keith Brooking.  He may not last this long, but if he does he will be a perfect fit for Atlanta.

25.  MIA — Clay Matthews, OLB, USC, 6031 240, 4.67 — The Dolphins need a corner, but they also really need an outside LB.  Everywhere Bill Parcells has been he has built his defenses on standout LBs.  Joey Porter’s play really trailed off at the end of last season, and he may be nearing the end of his great career.  On the other side, Matt Roth is improving, but he is certainly not above an upgrade.  Matthews has seen his stock rise perhaps more than any other prospect, and his motor that never quits running.  He’s a hard worker that should excel as a rush linebacker in the 3-4, especiallysince he spent some time at DE at USC.

26.  BAL — Darius Butler, CB, UConn, 5104 183, 4.53 — The Ravens were clearly in need of a corner in the playoff loss to Pittsburgh.  Sure, they just signed Dominique Foxworth, and yeah he’ll likely start, but I don’t think there is anyway the Ravens can go into the season with no contingency plan should one of their starters go down.  Butler is moving up draft boards, and I believe that he will sneak into the bottom of the first round.  His 40 at his pro day should solidify that.  He can start off as a nickel back for Baltimore, and I belive that before the season ends, he may push Foxworth into that role.  Plus he can help fill the kick returner void left by Jim Leonhard.

27.  IND — Percy Harvin, WR, Florida, 5111 192, 4.41 — The Colts definitely need a receiver now that Marvin Harrison is no longer a member of the team.  Hakeem Nicks will get some consideration here, but Harvin is a better fit.  His speed and quickness make him a perfect peg to line up in the slot and will give Peyton Manning yet another weapon to work with.  I know there are concerns about his route running ability, but the Colts will find plenty of ways to utilize his athelticism.  They like speedy receivers (Anthony Gonzalez) and Harvin is no different.

28.  PHI — Brandon Pettigrew, TE, Oklahoma St, 6053 263, 4.85 — He may have been overshadowed by Jared Cook at the combine, but Pettigrew is still the most complete tight end in the draft.  The Eagles have long needed a big target for the redzone, and Pettigrew is bigger than Cook, and has had better success as a part of the passing game.  He is also a very capable blocker which will be a big help to an Eagles team that has had trouble moving defenders out of the way.  I just don’t think any OTs are worth this pick now, and the Eagles will find someone later in the draft with the girth Andy Reid likes in his tackles.

29.  NYG — Hakeem Nicks, WR, UNC, 6006 212, 4.49 — Nicks is nowhere near as big as the guy he’ll be replacing, Plaxico Burress, but he plays big.  The Giants now need a receiver more than anything with the signing of Chris Canty.  Canty’s prescence likely means that Mathias Kiawanuka will be headed back to linebacker.  Nicks ran a great time in Indy, which softened concerns about his ability to be a number one receiver in the pros.  There may not be a player in the entire draft with his body control and hand-eye coordination.  He should become a very reliable target for Eli Manning.  James Laurinaitis will get some consideration here.

30.  TEN — Alphonso Smith, CB, Wake Forest, 5090 193, 4.56 — The Titans have a few big holes on defense now that Eric King and Albert Haynesworth are gone.  And a receiver has been a big need since Warren Moon played for the Oilers, but they just signed Jovan Haye and Nate Washington so corner looks like the most glaring need that matches up with value here.  Smith is a bit smaller, but the Titans had no problem taking Pacman Jones with a much higher pick.  Smith is the ACC’s career interception leader and has the big play ability that could make the Titans’ secondary as strong as it needs to be in a division with the Colts (Reggie Wayne) and Texans (Andre Johnson).  Previous pick:  Ron Brace

31.  ARI — Michael Johnson, DE, Georgia Tech, 6067 266, 4.75 — Now that Antonio Smith has gone to play for the Texans, a weak pass rush has gotten even weaker.  Sure, Johnson has been accused of never playing up to his ability, but the Cardinals have a history of taking physical freaks who underachieved in college (see: Calais Campbell).  If Johnson ever plays up to his immense potential (which he didn’t really fail to do as a senior, in my opinion) he could end up being a huge steal here for the Cards.  They have to get better as pressuring the other team’s passer.  Running back is still a need, but LeSean McCoy has probably slipped out of round one, and I just don’t see Donald Brown making it into round one.  Previous pick:  LeSean McCoy

32.  PIT — Eben Britton, OT, Arizona, 6060 309, 5.16 — It all comes down to who the Steelers have rated higher, Alex Mack or Eben Britton.  I have had Alex Mack here forever, and I do believe that he will probably find his way into round one somewhere, but Britton is a better fit.  The need for a tackle is just so much higher to me than the need for interior help.  Too many teams came off the edge and knocked Ben Roethlisberger on his butt in 2008.  I’m still torn on this one, though, since the Cards did such a nice job of whooping the Steelers’ guards.  Who knows?  For now, the pick is Britton, but it might change next week.  Previous pick: Alex Mack