Five Most Overrated Prospects for 2010

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It’s way too early to start looking at the 2010 NFL Draft.  I mean Mel Kiper is only on his 56th bottle of hairspray in 2009, and Keyshawn Johnson is still employed by ESPN.  So you know the year is fairly fresh.  But that won’t stop guys like me from looking ahead.  And worse, it won’t stop a lot of guys from cranking up the hype machine on kids in their early 20s who still have an entire season to avoid injuries and major meltdowns.

Remember this time last year, when everyone said that guys like Demetrius Byrd, Fili Moala, and Michael Johnson would be top 30 picks?  I know I do.  So this time around, I’m going the other way.  I’m looking at the guys who are sitting atop the mock drafts at the wrong time.  These are the guys who will be scrutinized from now until next April under a microscope strong enough to find talent in Courtney Love.  That’s a powerful lens.  Unfortunately, I’ve got a feeling that even Ms. Love herself might have a better chance of making an impact on an NFL team than these five frontrunners.  Okay, that’s not true.  She’s horrible.  Just read the article.

Sam Bradford, QB, Oklahoma

Sorry if this is somehow big news to everyone, but Sam Bradford is already overrated.  The sweat is still wet under Todd McShay’s arms and already people are beginning to swoon over Bradford.  “Look at those stats,”  “He’s pretty tall,”  “Have you seen how accurate he is?”  “That’s what Van Wilder would look like if he played football.”  Quotes like that are dominating the NFL Draft community.  Of course, even those aren’t as bad as the absolutely ridiculous suggestion that he would have been selected first overall this year.

My guess?  He won’t be selected first overall next year either.  At least, he shouldn’t be.  Too bad you can’t rule anything out now that Eric Mangini may be picking first overall.

But, anyway, back to Bradford.  He’s not a bad quarterback.  In fact, as far as collegiate quarterbacks go, he’s one of the best in the biz.  But take a quick look at some recent history.  The last three successful Oklahoma passers that headed for the NFL were absolutely awful as pros.  Josh Heupel?  Awful.  Nate Hybl?  Awful.  Jason White?  Really awful.  And White has the most comparable statistics.  Sure, none of these guys are as good as Bradford, but that’s not a good sign.  Coming from a spread program is one thing.  Coming from a spread program that has produced quite a few NFL flops is another.

Then there’s his “unbelievable accuracy.”  I’m not buying it.  With the kind of time Bradford had in the pocket last year, Van Wilder probably could have put up similar stats.  Hell, Taj might have had a decent season behind that wall.  Bradford did take advantage of the safety he was afforded, however.  A 50-8 touchdown-to-interception ratio is nothing to scoff at, but it’s important to delve a little deeper.  It’s indisputable that the Big 12 defenses took the season off.  They were pathetic.  11 SEC teams were ranked higher in total defense than the best Big 12 squad.  And that lone club that actually attempted to stop someone in the southwest?  Texas.  That’s right.  The only team to beat Sam Bradford during the regular season is the only conference team that managed to land in the top 70 among all FBS schools in stopping the opponent.  Bradford tossed two picks in that loss.  Probably because the Longhorns actually applied some pressure.

In fact, six of his eight picks came against teams with a defensive pulse.  Against Cincinnati Bradford tossed another duo of turnovers.  Sure, the Bearcats saw three members of their secondary plucked by NFL squads last weekend, but they weren’t exactly the cream of the crop.  And true, Connor Barwin was a second-rounder as a defensive end, but you can’t tell me there won’t be better defenses in the NFL.

The kind of guys he’ll be going up against are players a lot like Brian Orakpo.  You know, the guy who sacked Sam twice while making six stops and harassing the OU QB all day.  Except they’ll be bigger, faster, and more skilled.  More like the guys who played for Florida’s defense.  That’s the defense that gave Bradford his third multiple interception game of the year.  The defense that held “the best offense ever” to 14 points.  The defense that held “the greatest deep ball passer” in the world to a long toss of 25 yards.

Which brings up my next point.  Bradford struggles under pressure.  He’s not a statue, and I’ve seen him avoid pressure on the rare occasion that someone made it past his amazing line.  But his pocket awareness has been severly stunted.  He’s never shown much of an ability to feel the impending doom and get out of the way on a consistent basis.  Sure, he hasn’t faced many situations that would force him to do so, but you learn by doing.  It’s a bit of a stretch, I know, but Bradford’s great protection in college could work against him.  If he gets drafted as highly as expected, it will likely be by a team that lacks the talent to effectively keep him upright.  That slight frame is going to get pounded.

Then there’s the fact that a vast majority of his college career has come in the shotgun.  That’s not damning on it’s own, but when you look at how talented his O line was, and the fact that he had added seconds to survey the field, it makes you wonder how well he’ll do when he has to backhand the center’s rear.  He’ll have less time.  He’ll be backpedaling quicker while making his reads.  He’ll be forced to see the field from a different angle.  And most importantly, he’ll have less precious time to loft the ball to a receiver who’s already in his third cut.  Transitioning from catching the ball three to five yards behind the line and grabbing it mere feet from a defensive tackle is no simple task.  NFL defenders will be giving him the “tough love bear hug” slightly quicker than the world-beaters he faced against Washington (his best game) or Texas Tech (probably his second best).  He just doesn’t have the frame or the awareness to stand in there and pull a Roethlisberger.

And finally, there’s his reputation as an accurate deep ball slinger.  How hard is it to throw a pretty pass when there’s no pressure?  How hard is it to fit the ball into a tight space when there’s not much on the line.  When you get right down to it, Bradford was on the losing end of the two biggest games of his 2008 season.  Everyone wants to bash Tim Tebow for his accuracy, but his completion percentages were pretty darn close to Bradford’s.  Not to mention the fact that 60% of Oklahoma’s receiving yards came after the catch.  That doesn’t exactly exault Bradford’s passing prowess if you ask me.  He benefitted from the play of his receivers on an unfairly underreported level.  And the guy everyone loves to dog on — Tim Tebow — only got 42% of his yards from Percy Harvin and co.

So, my apologies to the Sam Bradford fan club.  I don’t doubt he’ll be drafted highly, but he won’t be worth it.  He’s a first-round talent, but he’s not Peyton Manning.  In fact, he’s not even close.  You’ll see.  He’s the most overrated prospect in the new crop of future rookies.  Of course, that could simply make him a lock to go number one overall.

SOME OTHER OVERRATED PLAYERS

Brandon Lafell, WR, LSU

Alright, no more novels in this article, I promise.  Lafell has good size, great reported speed (but we all know how that can pan out), and he has become a more consistent pass catcher.  But he’s being hailed as the ninth best prospect in the NFL draft, and a top 20 selection by most draft pundits.  It won’t happen.  He’s probably primed for a bigger fall than 90% of the top rated guys at this way-too-early moment.

He won’t put up attractive stats in LSU’s offense.  Even if LSU had an established QB entering the 2009 season, Lafell still wouldn’t get as many looks as he needs in an offense that puts a premium on running the ball.  Not to mention the fact that the Tigers are loaded with playmakers who will likely cut down on his touches.

Then there’ the history of LSU receivers seeing their stock drop.  Josh Reed won the Belitnikoff award and dropped to round two.  He’s not as big as Lafell, but he was a better route runner.  Demetrius Byrd was a “first-rounder” at this time last year, and that didn’t really work out for him.  His accident dropped him to the seventh round, but he would have only been a fifth rounder completely healthy.  Dwayne Bowe and Craig Davis were both picked in the top 32 in 2007, and Bowe has been a great young pass-catcher, but Davis has been a bust so far.  He’s more of a Lafell-type player, and I think Davis’ lack of success will have a negative effect on Lafell’s stock.

And there’s always the chance that Lafell reverts to awful habit of dropping passes.  He’s gotten his vision corrected, and that has helped, but with so many offensive weapons he could find himself extremely frustrated if he’s not getting the rock on a consistent basis.  Frustration leads to mistakes.

CJ Spiller, RB, Clemson

I think Spiller should have come out this year.  The running back class was weak, and he would have had a chance to be the second back taken after the success of Chris Johnson.  His speed will likely get him picked in round one, but it’s his frame that bothers me.  Spiller is a great talent, but he’s never had to carry the load.  With Aaron Kelly, Cullen Harper, and, most importantly, James Davis all off to try and make it as play-for-pay men bulk of the offense will fall on Spiller’s slight shoulders.

I’m just not convinced that he can carry the entire load on his own.  If he struggles this year, he’ll be looked at as a situational back, and situational backs don’t often hear their names called in round one.  He’s giving scouts another year of film to study.  That’s always a risky decision.  What happens if he gets injured?  I just don’t see Spiller as an every down back.  And while scouts would have been more likely to focus on his elite speed as a 2009 prospect, I believe they’ll be disappointed by CJ Spiller the full-time ball carrier.  He’s a big play guy, and that’s a plus, but he’s in danger of proving that he won’t ever be a back that NFL teams can ride.

George Selvie, DE, USF

Same concerns as Spiller in some ways.  Selvie is undersized as a defensive end, and he’ll likely project as an OLB in the 3-4 at the next level.  Just ask Brian Orakpo, that stigma doesn’t always get you drafted as highly as you’d expect.  After Vernon Gholston’s horrible first year, teams are pouring over every tiny detail on these type of players.  Plus, Selvie’s production really dropped off last year.  5.5 sacks is not a first-round worthy stat for a pass rusher.  Selvie lacks the strength to hold up against the run in the NFL, and after a dysmal season in 2008 I have some major questions about his pass rushing moves.  His sacks in 2007 came by beating slower OTs with his speed, but that won’t fly at the next level.  Call me crazy, but I think Selvie will end up as a third round guy.  He’s just got too many question marks.  A decline in play is never a good sign.  He’ll need a monster year in 2009 to move back up in my mind.

Ras-I Dowling, CB, Virginia

If you haven’t heard much about Dowling just yet, don’t worry, you will.  It’s hard for a 6-02 200 pound corner to go unnoticed in the eyes of NFL scouts.  But this is simply Malcolm Jenkins all over again.  Dowling has stiff hips, struggles out of breaks, and will have a difficult time running with NFL receivers.  Sure, he has a great reported 40 (in the low 4.4 range), but those kind of times often don’t hold up come combine time.  He’s got a chance to further copy Jenkins by switching to safety, but with three true safeties likely to carry first round grades in April 2010, that may not be enough to sneak into round one.  He’s been pretty productive, but I feel very certain that he’ll be looked at as a safety by GMs, and he won’t be a good enough prospect at that spot to beat out guys like Taylor Mays and Eric Berry.