Tim Tebow as an NFL Prospect — Why He’ll be a Success

Yeah, I can throw. From the pocket.

Before we delve into what I can only imagine will be a climb to the pinnacle of controversy, I need you to do me a small favor.  Close your eyes.

I’m no fool.  I know that no one closed their eyes.  That would make it awfully hard to read the article.  But bear with me.  Pretend that you’re an NFL Draft expert.  Shouldn’t be too hard considering most of us drift off to that exact fantasy on a daily basis.  Now back to the make-believe at hand.

You’re an NFL Draft expert, and you’ve just been asked about Tim Tebow’s prospects as a professional passer.  Are you seeing dark clouds yet?  Is the white-hot adament belief that Tebow has no chance searing through your head?  If it is, don’t feel bad.  You’re certainly not alone.  In fact, the premier “expert” on the subject has long been a fan of a positional makeover for Tim.  Mel Kiper is right there with you.  Maybe you’re even holding hands monastically chanting “Tight end, tight end, you must move to tight end.”

So at least you’re in good company, right?  There’s only one flaw in that logic.  You’re both wrong.  Very wrong.  Tim Tebow will be a quarterback in the National Football League.  And he’ll be a damn good one.

It would be easier to find a Playboy Magazine at a nudist colony than to find ten Tebow-favorable articles that list anything other than his intangibles as likely evidence of his future success.

Of course, those arguments aren’t completely lacking in merit.  Tebow possesses perhaps the greatest blend of leadership, heart and character that we’ve ever seen in a college player.  I don’t want to completely discount those attributes.  They’re important.  In fact, more than a few professional players seemed pretty high on Tebow’s outlook because of his leadership.  Tony Dorsett called him “a guy who would walk into a lion’s den with a porkchop on his chest,” and added that, “leadership qualities go a long way for me.”  Tony Gonzalez called out Mr. Kiper saying, “who cares what Mel Kiper thinks.  Tebow could prove him wrong.”  The point — NFL giants don’t care about the talking heads, and Tebow shouldn’t either.

But what we’re looking at here isn’t Tebow’s ability to inspire his teammates when the chips are down, though that’s an invaluable talent.  And I’m not trying to re-convince you that the guy is a hard-worker, though plenty of Kiper’s and Todd McShay’s and Mike Mayock’s scourges have proven them wrong with guttural determination to succeed.  What we are talking about right now are Tebow’s skills as an athlete.  So we better get started because the list of “deficiencies” is longer than Kirstie Alley’s grocery list.

Tebow’s accuracy is brought into question more times than any other skill he seemingly lacks.  We’ve all heard that he doesn’t have great touch and that his passes miss their mark on a consistent basis.  But I don’t see it.  Matthew Stafford just survived an offseason wrought with scrutiny as the probably number one offensive player on nearly every expert’s draft board.  His consistency was brought into question every now and then.  And his dedication was criticized as well as his decision making.  But his ability to hit a mark was almost never harped upon.  That’s okay, Stafford was a great quarterback, probably will be in the NFL.  But how does a guy with a 56.6 career completion percentage slide under the radar when it comes to accuracy while a guy like Tebow, with a 66% completion average, gets hammered for his inability to find a receiver?

I know that Matt Stafford played in a pro-style system, and I’m not trying to take anything away from him, but the difference in accuracy, which is what completion percentage measures, is staggering.  Tebow would have to complete only 26% of his throws in 2009 to end up with the same career mark.  His worst year, 64.4% in 2008, is still better than Stafford’s best, 61.4% in the same year.

Of course, having incredible receivers can help a QB with his numbers.  Stafford was certainly plagued by some dropped balls.  But Tebow wasn’t throwing to Stretch Armstrong.  There were no insane wingspans on the receiving end of any significant percentage of Tebow’s tosses.  When you get right down to it, putting the ball where only the receiver has a chance at the catch is paramount.  It’s more important than blindly finding the spot between the numbers.

Anyone who watched the SEC Championship game can certainly attest to Tebow’s precision.  His game-winning chucks to David Nelson, Riley Cooper, and Louis Murphy could not have been placed in any other spot.  Mere inches outside of where they landed would have resulted in incompletions.  Sure, this was only one quarter of one game, but that context is a vital argument in itself.  This was the SEC Championship game.  This was basically a play-in bout for the National Title.  Everything was on the line.  It’s easy to complete passes when there is nothing at stake.  Most average quarterbacks will put up nice numbers against Wofford when the talent level is skewed and the game was already won by simply stepping on to the field.  But to come through with accuracy like that when the future of the season is hanging in the balance is simply amazing.  To do it against an incredible defense like Alabama’s is jaw-dropping.  That’s not a talent that can be taught.  It’s innate, and Tebow has it.

Then there’s the argument that Tebow has simply benefitted from his offensive system and the supporting cast that has apparently crutched him to a Heisman trophy and two national championships.  No one seems ready to admit that Sam Bradford has had the same advantages.  Bradford takes shotgun snaps as often as Tebow.  The defenses he faced were immeasurably softer than those in Tebow’s conference.  11 SEC teams were ranked above the highest Big 12 squad.  Hell, only one Big 12 club finished in the top 70.  Bradford had a better offensive line that faced weaker defensive talent.  You can scream all you want about how the SEC offenses were “subpar,” but the fact remains that Tebow faced the defenses, not the offenses.  How is it that Bradford is looked at as such a sure thing at this way-too-early point in time?

People often point to Bradford’s touch and accuracy, especially on the deep ball.  First of all, long hauls of the football are simply easier when you have time to pose for a sculptor in the backfield.  But when it comes to the numbers on passes of more than fifteen yards (through the air) Tebow is again the head-to-head winner.  That’s right, in this particular category Bradford comes out on the losing end.  He completed a lower percentage of 15+ yard throws.  He had fewer yards per attempt on those passes.  And he threw less touchdowns on those passes.  Tebow, on the other hand, with his “QB-friendly” offense, earned almost half of his passing yards on throws of over 15 yards.  And before you claim that his stats were boosted by Percy Harvin turning a five-yard slant into a 60-yard score, listen to this.  Only 42% of Florida’s receiving yards came after the catch.  Compare that to 60% for Bradford and co. and scratch your head while you wonder why Tebow doesn’t garner more attention for his arm strength and touch.

Then there’s his decision making.  It’s quite a simple weakness to disprove.  You don’t throw 30 touchdowns and only four interceptions due to poor reads.  And you certainly don’t throw only 11 picks over three years because of questionable scans of the defense.  Sure, both Bradford and Tebow tossed two turnovers in their only head-to-head meeting, but Tebow’s duo doubled his season total while still giving him only half as many as Bradford.

People will point to his scrambling ability as the reason he was able to improvise and find receivers that others couldn’t, but please tell me how that makes him less attractive as a prospect.  It’s not like Tebow takes off every play before assessing his options through the air.  He ran it less in 2008 than he did in 2007.  In fact, the only reason he ran so much as a sophomore was due to the absolute absence of the Gator’s’ ground game.  He’s playing a college sport right now.  It’d be viewed as selfish if he prioritized his NFL chances over doing everything he could to help his team win.  That’s why he runs.  Not because he thinks he can bowl over professional linebackers, but because he can do that in this game.  The one he’s playing right now.  Being a good football player has never been about a me-first attitude.

I hate the view that he compares to Vince Young or Alex Smith.  Is it because they played in similar systems?  John David Booty and Carson Palmer played in basically the same system, but no one claimed that Booty would be as effective as Palmer at the next level because they ran similar plays.  Peyton Manning and Tee Martin were in the same system.  How many scouts were making a draft day decision on whether or not to spend the top overall pick on Martin?  The answer is none.  Systems are similar, players are unique.

Tebow is not Vince Young.  Vince Young was a quick, speedy runner who believed that he could outjuke NFL defenders.  You can’t tell me that you honestly think Tebow is dumb enough to believe that he can bulldoze every tackler in the pros.  There’s a difference in philosophy between a guy that is in love with his elusiveness and a guy that runs over people in college because he can.  Vince Young thought that he could run away from defenses, Tebow won’t head to the NFL looking to brute his way to success.

And Alex Smith?  Please.  Tebow is not a slight-framed, weak-armed, small-handed product of playing weak competition.  The two have nothing in common outside of Urban Meyer.

Finally, there’s his release.  I don’t have any problem admitting that it needs tweaking.  He has a slower-than-most delivery that won’t be an aid when he’s facing the best pass-rushers in the biz.  But again, his mobility is a plus here.  His size and toughness could be a strength here as well.  We all saw Ben Roethlisberger win a Super Bowl by spending suicidal amounts of time in the pocket.  Of course, his release is infinitely tighter than Tebow’s, but that’s not an uncoachable skill.

Phillip Rivers entered the NFL with one of the jankiest throwing motions that I’ve ever seen.  Seems to be doing alright now.  Why?  Because of coaching.  That’s what the guys in the polos and headsets are paid to do.  Every pundit with a soapbox dogged Rivers for his crooked arm coming out of college, but he just finished leading the league in touchdown passes while leading the one-time 4-8 Chargers to a playoff victory.  Tebow became a better passer from his freshman to his sophomore year.  It’s indisputable.  He then repeated the feat from his sophomore to junior year.  The answer isn’t luck.  It isn’t that he plays in the spread.  It’s that he takes coaching well.  It’s that he puts in the extra hours refining and improving every minute aspect of his game.  The Gators have worked tirelessly to hone his ability to throw the ball, and they’re not done.

This is what coaches do.  There has never been a prospect who showed up as an 18-year-old ready to lead an NFL club to the playoffs.  In fact, Tebow will be one of the most experienced quarterbacks to enter the draft in history.  But, luckily for the sport, there are tutors who get paid a pretty penny to work meticulously with athletes.  Florida has already let it slip that they may use their coaching staff to install more sets that make Tebow an attractive option come April 2010.  And guess what?  If that throwing motion still needs work once he gets to the NFL there are coaches there too.

So take it for what you will.  Tebow is a scythe of college football records.  He is unparalleled in his ability to will his team to paydirt, no matter the situation.  Some may still doubt his prospects.  Mel Kiper likely won’t change his mind.  He’ll still shout from the rooftops that Tebow is not Donovan McNabb, he’s Frank Wycheck.  He’ll tell us all that Superman will be sitting squarely on the other end of all those game-winning pitches at the next level.  But Kiper doesn’t roam a sideline.  He makes no decisions in any war rooms.  He sits behind a desk with a friendly camera and a license to be wrong.  Come next April, watch closely.  One NFL coach of a recent playoff team has already made it clear that Tebow won’t make it past his team in round one.  Others have stated that he’ll be their guy if the make it back into coaching.  So peer intently at the television.  Try not to blink.  Because if you do, you’ll miss Mel Kiper pulling that license to err out of his wallet.  And no one will care, because you and I have as much control over NFL decision-making as he does.  The guy who has the ability to make believers of us all is busy becoming a better football player.