Friday Debate: Who Wins the ACC?

Welcome to Friday Debates.  It’s a new feature, but if we can find the time to email each other (it’s harder than you think), this will become a staple of our Friday’s.  Basically, I take one side of an issue and Mike takes the other.  Then, all hell breaks loose.

This week we’ve got the ACC title on our minds.  Mike recently picked Georgia Tech to take home the conference crown, while I feel like Virginia Tech will be headed to the Orange once again.  There are good arguments on both sides, and of course a few zingers in there.  I even saw Tom Brokaw pointing to his watch a couple of times.  We went as fast as we could, Tom.  If you want to know who won the debate, you’ll have to read below.  And be sure to check back every Friday.  You’ll need something to talk to your pool boy about over the weekend.

Hunter: I just don’t see how Virginia Tech loses at Georgia Tech this year, or really any other ACC game for that matter.  Tyrod Taylor is a year wiser running the offense, and we all saw what he could do in the Orange Bowl when he gets going.  I think that Cincinnati defense was better than what we’ll see from Georgia Tech this year.  The Yellow Jackets lose too much up front on defense to stop Taylor and Darren Evans running the ball.  Then you’ve got the 9 starters back on a Hokies defense that is always near or at the top of the ACC standings.

Mike: I don’t know how you can’t see VT losing on the road to GT this year. VT almost lost at home last year to a GT that was in its first year of its option-run scheme. Jonathan Dwyer should be ready to shake up the ACC, and Josh Nesbitt will be a good compliment QB. Hell, Josh Nesbitt(like Tyrod Taylor) can’t go anywhere but up at the QB position. There is no doubting that VT has a scary offense, but 35-points was the most the team could garner in a game last year. GT was able to do that in 4 of their games, and should be even better in their second year under the option. There is also no doubt that the team has lost alot on the DL, but they will be able to hold the rush while recharging their DL.

Hunter: True, Tech’s offense looked great on more than one occasion.  It’s just that none of those occasions came against Virginia Tech.  Their offense may be improved, but I don’t see it moving past the defense that held them to 17 last year.  Virginia Tech lost only two starters off of Bud Foster’s squad.  One of them was Victor Harris, who definitely didn’t have anything to do from the cornerback position against GT’s run-only offense.  So basically they lost only one piece of the unit that kept the option in check.

Even if the Yellow Jacket offense does manage to move the ball against the Hokies, it probably still won’t help.  They outgained VT by 140 yards in 2008, and still found the endzone only twice.  Both came on passing plays, which is pretty much a gimmick in Paul Johnson’s system.  Then, on a conference-wide scale, the scheduling is much kinder to Va Tech.  Their only conference road games, besides the GT game, are at Maryland, Virginia, and Duke.  Not exactly like playing at Florida State and Miami.  I could really see VT taking the conference even if by some miracle the GT defensive line accidentally stops Tyrod Taylor and Darren Evans.

Mike: There is no doubt that the GT/VT game might decide the conference. I think the FT offense could be 5 PPG better, but the defense might be 5 PPG worse because of their DL losses. I think that if the team was good enough to have the DL that they had, they hopefully will be able to replace the DL sufficiently.

There is no doubt that VT has a much easier ACC schedule. It was one of the things that almost made me change my mind on the topic. It definitely won’t be easy to win at Miami or Florida State for GT, especially since VT lost to both of them on the road last year. Oh wait, who won the ACC last year despite losing to Miami and FSU on the road?

What bothered me about the VT schedule was actually their out of conference schedule. They face Alabama at the Georgia Dome and Nebraska early. They also eventually face an ECU team that beat them last year. I know this means nothing about the ACC title but that isn’t an easy pushover schedule. Getting crushed against Alabama, a close game against Nebraska, and the want for revenge against ECU might bang the team up some. If VT loses to Alabama in their first game, they might lose the confidence to compete. Last year Clemson looked top-10 good but lost their first game in the Georgia Dome to none other than… Alabama. They never recovered and under-achieved in the season.

Hunter: Well, we definitely agree that the VT-GT game will be a big one for the ACC.  However, when you look at the schedules for each team prior to their meeting, there is a serious advantage in VT’s favor.  The Hokies are coming off of an away game at Duke (that’s a win) and a home game against Boston College, who I expect to take a major step back with a new coach and an awful situation at QB.  Plus, if Mark Herzlich is out, the Eagles defense will suffer now that BJ Raji and Ron Brace are gone.  Compare that to the fact that GT will be coming off of back to back road tests against Mississippi State (don’t laugh, it’s an SEC team with a tough D on the road) and Florida State, who could be a real sleeper team this year.  I just see GT being more banged up heading into their game than VT.

Not to mention the fact that the Yellow Jackets new D line won’t have faced a rushing attack like this up to that point.  Clemson and CJ Spiller will be more a finesse rushing attack, and Florida State looks more like a pass heavy team with the way Jimbo Fisher raves about Christian Ponder.  Virginia Tech, on the other hand, will have faced Alabama and Nebraska.  Two teams that figure to be run heavy in 2009.  Sure those games will take a toll, but I think there is enough time between those contests and the GT game to heal properly and use that experience to their advantage.

Then there’s the special teams advantage.  VT has been known for their specials throughout the Frank Beamer era, and they played a key role in last year’s meeting.  VT blocked an early GT extra point which forced them to go for two later.  Sure, they got the conversion, but that’s a big if everytime you do it.  Then, there’s the fact that VT punted 6 times last year compared to GT only punting twice.  VT owns the field position here.  GT just doesn’t have the offense to move the ball quickly enough, in my opinion, if VT can get comfortable with a small lead by punting and playing defense.  Just seems that the panic will be more on the side of the Yellow Jackets.

Mike: Good points with the schedules prior to the game. Mississippi State is the Iowa State of the SEC. Yes it is a team that’s in the SEC, but they aren’t an SEC team. They lost by 31 last year to GT, and while I expect MSU to be better, they will likely ose easily. Florida State is definitely a team that could make a major stride this year if the players weren’t the Pacman Jones of academic suspensions.

Yet another good point about the new DL facing a rushing attack like VT when the time comes. I think CJ Spiller will disappoint this season, and GT won’t face a scary run attack until VT. Like you noted, the tough schedule could take a toll on VT, but you expect them to improve from it. This is very possible, but if they get crushed by Bama (I imagine the game to be like the Peach Bowl last year), and their confidence falters, expect average results.

I think the debate comes down to the head to head game itself. I think that the ACC has proven that you can lose a few games and still win the conference. Last year at VT, the Yellow Jackets had a better statistical game offensively and defensively. Had it not been a game where the GT defensive gave up stupid penalties, they likely would have won the game. This year the offense should be even better in the rush game. The pass game will be iffy, but look for Jaybo Shaw to come in when needed. The defense has lost some major tools, but look for the rest of the defense to come into the game ready. Look for Morgan Burnett to possibly become a top-3 DB in the NCAA this year. He had nearly 100 tackles last year, and 7 int. And the game is at home this year. I think that if the team has gotten more fluid on offense(as I expect), and the defense can compete and stay smart(as I expect), the team will win the ACC.