2009 College Football Power Ratings

It’s time for my annual College Football Power Ratings. Please notice how I said ratings. It’s important to remember that these aren’t rankings.  They’re grades given to each team based upon a very specific formula that I’ve created.

Is it perfect?  Yes.  Ok, not exactly, but I believe in them pretty strongly. And they’ve correctly predicted a few upsets in the past.  When Georgia rose to nearly the top to finish second in 2007, my rankings had them at 6th, much higher than anyone else, or myself for that matter, was predicting.

It’s also important to remember that these ratings are based off of a purely scientific and mathematical formula.  I plug in my secret numbers, and the calculator spits out the results.  So if you’re wondering why LSU is sitting at 19th while Cal is all the way up at 8th.  Or why USC is the third-ranked Pac 10 team, just remember that.  Football is not a purely mathematical or scientific sport.  That’s why the BCS continually chokes on it’s money clips.  But if you’re looking for a team that could really surprise this year, ahem… Georgia, Cal, then look no further.  These ratings should give us all an idea of who to watch out for in 2009.

1.  Florida Gators (847.37)

Big surprise here.  The Gators will and should be on top of every set of rankings, rating, and BCS wish-lists in the country.  They’ge got all 11 defensive starters back (I fully expect Janoris Jenkins to play this year) plus all 11 backups.  Plus there’s a quarterback in Gainesville who’s won a few titles before.

2.  Oklahoma Sooners (823.84)

I’m not so much surprised by this as I am suspicious.  This team lost to Texas last year and will likely lose again this year.  I just don’t think they’re as good as the Longhorns.  You can’t tell me that the new O line will be ready to handle the Longhorn pass rush.  They won’t disappear by any means, but I have a feeling fans will be disappointed by the offense.

3.  Texas Longhorns (659.75)

This is my number two team in my actual rankings.  The Longhorns are destined to play for it all after getting absolutely hornswaggled last year.  A team that you beat head-to-head should never get the nod over you.  Good news is, I think Texas has a great shot to go undefeated this year.  Colt McCoy, not Sam Bradford, is the other guy in the top two quarterbacks in the nation.

4.  Alabama Crimson Tide (641.5)

I’m very skeptical of Alabama this year.  The last two games of last season seemed more like a revelation than an aberration.  This team gets nine starters back on a great defense, but losing the free safety is a big deal in Nick Saban’s system.  And we all saw what happens when Andre Smith isn’t playing.  They’ll have to replace some great O linemen and the quarterback.  Time will tell if Greg McElroy is up to the challenge of replacing JPW.

5.  Ohio State Buckeyes (607.5)

Again, I think this is too high, but who am I to doubt my own power ratings system.  Terrelle Pryor is going to have to grow up in a hurry.  Daniel Herron is an underrated back, and the defense gets more experience back than I would have thought, but I’m just not sold on the Buckeyes as a top five team without the big names that they lost this year.

6.  Virginia Tech Hokies (586.2)

Finally a team that is sittin about where I believe they will finish.  The defense is always special, especially by ACC standards.  And this year they get seven starters back.  The conference schedule shouldn’t be too daunting outside of the road game at Georgia Tech.  And I think Tyrod Taylor is in for a big year.  That bowl game was a great preview of what he can do when given time to learn the ropes.  Darren Evans should have a field day all season long.

7.  Oklahoma State Cowboys (583.84)

Probably the toughest team to predict in the whole country.  On the offensive side of the ball, the Cowboys have three legitimate darkhorse trophy contenders.  But no one’s worried about their ability to score.  The problem here is stopping opponents, something the Cowboys couldn’t do last year.  Here’s hoping the new DC (Bill Young) can bring some fire from Miami.

8.  Cal Golden Bears (562.85)

Of all the teams that got a big boost in the power ratings, I feel like Cal has the best chance to realize the high hopes.  The Bears get back their quarterback (Kevin Riley looks poised for a big year under Tedford), some decent receivers (Florida transfer Nyan Boateng should break out as well), and probably the fastest running back in college football in Jahvid Best.  The defense was great at creating pressure and turnovers last year, and if they can match that production they could steal the conference crown in what might be a down year for USC.

9.  Ole Miss Rebels (539.51)

Crank up the hype machine.  Ole Miss will enter the season in the top ten of nearly every poll.  It’s a fun pick.  After all, the Rebels are hardly ever ranked this high.  But I’m still not completely sold.  Jevan Snead is incredible, and Dexter McCluster is this year’s Percy Harvin, but losing a great tackle like Michael Oher will hurt more than people think.  On the defensive side, the talent is certainly there, but look what happened to LSU after losing Glen Dorsey.  I have a bad feeling that the Ole Miss defense may be in for a similar fate.

10.  Oregon Ducks (527.96)

Another Pac 10 team entertaining dreams of knocking off USC.  The Duck certainly have the horses.  Jeremiah Masoli is a ten ton pinball at quarterback, and LeGarrette Blount won’t be easy for anyone to bring down at nearly 240 pounds.  But the receivers are gone.  The secondary was ravaged by graduation, and the pass rush will need to improve.  Still there is talent in Eugene, and new coaches often do well with stocked cupboards in their first year (see:  Larry Coker)

11.  USC Trojans (504.4)

You’d have to be an idiot to doubt the Trojans now.  Their breakout season under Pete Carrol came a few years back after losing a top signal-caller (Carson Palmer) and most of their defense.  So we know the guy can coach, and we definitely know he can recruit.  But this year could be tough.  Losing your top four linebackers is a big hurdle to overcome, and no one knows yet whether Aaron Corp is Matt Leinart or Brandon Hance.  The talent is there, and until USC actually loses the Pac 10, I’m not going to bet against them.

12.  Penn State Nittany Lions (487.4)

Hmmm.  Can Daryll Clark make the offense go without all those speedy receivers?  I think he can.  In fact, I’m picking Penn State to win the Big Ten again, despite their recent problems with consistency.  The good news for Clark is that he won’t be alone.  Evan Royster is the top back in the Big Ten and that has meant big numbers lately.  The defense will again be strong at the LB positions, but a pass rush must be generated after the departures of Aaron Maybin and Maurice Evans.

13.  Georgia Bulldogs (484.9)

Here’s a big-time sleeper pick for you.  Georgia always, and I mean always, surprises when the chips are down.  Joe Cox looks like the guy at QB for now, but don’t be surprised if Aaron Murray pulls a Matt Stafford and takes the reins before the season is over.  Caleb King should be a decent replacement for Knowshon, and I don’t even want to think about how good AJ Green will be as a sophomore.  If the defense and O line can finally avoid all the injuries, then this could be another sneaky year for the Dawgs.

14.  TCU Horned Frogs (484.19)

My pick to bust up the BCS.  I’ve given up on the hopes that BYU can do it anytime soon.  If Max Hall couldn’t lead them there with Austin Collie, then how is he going to do it without him?  Utah lost too much talent to repeat, and that leaves TCU.  The schedule is tough, but win those early ACC games, and they can almost book their tickets.  The defense is ridiculous regardless of the returning starters, and Andy Dalton could be in for a big year.

15.  Boise State Broncos (482.12)

Of course, TCU could get some competition for the lone non-BCS BCS slot from the team they knocked off last year.  The Broncos could be in for huge things.  Sure the defense returns only five starters, but they do play in the WAC.  And Kyle Wilson is one of the best corners around.  Kellen Moore should be insanely good as a sophomore after a huge freshman season.  Ian Johnson is finally gone, but he hasn’t been a huge offensive threat in the last couple of years anyway.  This team should be very dangerous.  Oregon should watch out.

16.  Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (466.3)

Here’s another team I don’t really believe in.  Georgia Tech shocked the world last year by knocking off some heavyweight foes, but then got slammed by LSU in the Peach bowl.  That result seems more likely to me than the shootout win over UGA.  The defensive line was absolutely ravaged by the draft.  The running game will go as long as Tech employs the option, and Jonathan Dwyer and Roddy Jones may end up as the nation’s best RB tandem, but unless Josh Nesbitt can become a better player, this team will have a lower ceiling than some think.

17.  North Carolina Tar Heels (463.6)

Another dark horse candidate here.  And I’m not just talking about the team as a whole.  TJ Yates could walk home with the ACC Offensive Player of the Year award.  He had a much better season than anyone seems to remember last year, and he won’t have Cameron Sexton looking over his shoulder in 2009.  If he can stay healthy and overcome the loss of his top three wideouts, this team could surprise.  The defense should be nasty.  And Kyle Jolly is the most underrated OT in the country.

18.  Kansas Jayhawks (449.2)

Mark it down — Kansas will win the Big 12 North.  And it might not even be close.  Missouri isn’t suddenly going to fade into obscurity, but they won’t match the results of the last two seasons.  Nebraska is still a year away, and has to get better at holding onto the ball.  But Kansas could challenge some of those South squads for best offense in the nation.  Todd Reesing will have another 30+ TD year.  Dezmon Briscoe is one of the best in the nation.  And for once, the running game should be a complement, not a curse.

19.  LSU Tigers (440.9)

The Tigers struggled last year like no one thought they could.  I’m blaming it solely on two things.  One:  Jarrett Lee was not ready to play QB.  And two:  Those two defensive coordinators were absolutely awful.  In 2009, Jordan Jefferson has taken the reins at QB, and he has loads of promise.  And John Chavis, one of the best DCs in the country over the last 18 years, is now running things on that side of the ball.  There’s no question the Tigers will be better, and I think they’re a to 15 team, but it’s tough to win in the SEC with so much youth, even when it’s made up of skill like this.

20.  Iowa Hawkeyes (417.84)

I think Iowa is rated too highly by most people.  Brian Bulaga is a pretty damn good tackle, and Stanzi should be a little better at QB, but there’s no doubt about the fact that Shonn Greene made this team last year.  Well, he’s gone.  And while the defense looks good on paper with 8 starters back, they only managed 18 sacks in 2008.  Four of those were recorded by Mitch King.  He’s gone too.

21.  ECU Pirates (388.29)

Okay, so I know I already picked TCU as my BCS buster, and I gave a shout to Boise as a possible contender, but I’m doing it again here.  ECU has everything in place to be the first representitive from CUSA to reach the big bowls.  Patrick Pinkney is underrated in my opinion.  I think he’ll win the job and he’ll excel.  The defense that forced 30 sacks last year has eight starters back.  And oh yeah, did I mention they play in CUSA?  The schedule is brutal as always, but they’ve already proven that they can beat the big boys.  Now, if they can just stay healthy and hungry…

22.  Illinois Fightin Illini (355.10)

Want a pick for most explosive offense in the Big Ten?  I know, I know that’s a little like being the skinniest family at Ryan’s Steakhouse, but it counts for something.  Juice Williams is back, and should hopefully be old enough now to refrain from all of his costly mistakes.  Arrelious Benn is the most talented WR in the country and has to be due for a breakout season right?  And Daniel Dufrene should be better than anyone is expecting.  The O line and defense have some major holes to fill, but with an athletic QB that can score like this, they should have enough time to gel before Ohio State and Penn State show up.

23.  Notre Dame Fighting Irish (324.49)

Schedule, schedule, schedule.  Even if this wasn’t Charlie Weis’s most talented team, the schedule would probably be good for 8 wins.  Considering the playmakers that the Irish have, it could be good for 10.  And that means a BCS bowl appearance.  Jimmy Clausen is poised for a huge year with Golden Tate and James Aldridge on his side behind a great O line (OT Sam Young, OG Erik Olsen).  I can’t express how big that bowl win was for this program’s confidence.

24.  South Florida Bulls (318.77)

Here’s the deal, USF:  I’ve believed in you before and gotten burnt for it.  Please don’t do that to me again.  I’m picking you to win the Big East, but we’ve been down this road before.  It’s all about two players.  If Matt Grothe picks up the pace and plays with some consistency and headiness, then the offense will go.  If George Selvie gets healthy and isn’t triple-teamed (or at least beats a double team) then opposing offenses won’t go.  This isn’t a particularly strong conference.  The time is now, USF.  Don’t let me down.

25.  Nebraska Cornhuskers (220)

By far the team I’m least confident in.  Nebraska has two big issues:  Who’s going to play QB?  And can they actually hold onto the ball?  I’m just not so sure that the QB situation will work out for them.  And unless Ndamukong Suh can come up with about five more picks (hey, it’s possible) then the turnover margin could again slide in the opponent’s favor.  It’s not going to be a bad year, but they’re still a season away in my mind.