Friday Debate: 2009-2010 BCS Buster

It’s one of the hardest, yet most exciting aspects of the current BS, err BCS, system:  picking a candidate to bust up the big money bowls.  Since it’s inception, the Bowl Championship series has given us loads of controversy.  Did Texas get screwed last year?  Did Auburn get screwed when they ran the table and had to watch Oklahoma get mauled by USC?  Are Oklahoma and Ohio State no longer worthy of BCS Title Game consideration?  (Ok, the answer to that one is yes, they are worthy.  They’re not the first teams to lose bowl games.)

But one thing that can’t be argued is the fact that these mid-majors have shown up in a pretty big way when it comes to sneaking in the BCS back door, fake ID in hand.  Since the day the Utah Utes made it all possible by running the table and meeting up with Pitt in the 2005 Fiesta Bowl, non-BCS teams have been an impressive 3-1 in the major bowls.  In fact, only Hawaii has lost, and that came at the hands of one of the best UGA teams in recent memory.  Boise State and Utah have knocked off such historic programs as Oklahoma and Alabama, and it’s been pretty damn scintillating.

But this year, with more of the big boys of the middle tier choosing to take on some big name foes, are we in for our first one loss mid-major representative?  TCU faces early road tests at Virginia and Clemson.  Utah heads to Eugene to take on Oregon while Boise State gets the Ducks at home.  And East Carolina is no stranger to marquee matchups with two repeat meetings with West Virginia and Virginia Tech, not to mention the added tilt at UNC.  The point:  It’s going to be tough to have a squeaky clean resume’ in 2009.  And with Notre Dame looking to bounce back from a few disappointing years, the BCS vacancies could be non-existent.  Still, Mike and I are no wimps, and we’ll happily put our feet out on a limb and pick two BCS Busters of our own.  Decide for yourself who’s on the right track.

Mike’s BCS Buster: East Carolina Pirates

The Pirates are my absolute favorite non-BCS team this year. The team has one of the hardest non-conference schedules in college football, let alone for a non BCS-team. But guess what?? They beat two top-20 teams last year, and have the opportunity to beat them again this year! My Pirates will never have the best offense in the game, nor will they have the best defense. But they make plays, they keep games close, and they play in purple.

The team returns nine starters on each side of the ball, and should be improved in depth from recruits and transfers. The defense is ready to become a dominating presence in the Conference-USA, and has the talent to do so. Oh, and they have one of the hottest coaches in the game in Skip Holtz.

Patrick Pinkney is a hit or miss quarterback that has looked par for the last few years, but he should be much improved. Another year of experience never hurts, but an improved O-Line giving him time, a better run-game, and a freshman backup QB who is chomping for the starting gig should push him to become a bigger playmaker. Josh Jordan is a 6’4 freshman phenom who looked like a senior at moments in the spring game. If Pinkney doesn’t feel like showing up to his potential, there is no doubt that Jordan will take over and excel. Either way expect good things from Josh Jordan next year.

While there are about 30 RB’s on the team worthy of starting, look for Brandon Jackson to become the next Chris Johnson. He won’t run a two-second 40, but he should become one of the best sophomore backs in the country after sitting out a transfer season. Overall the offense should be ten times better next season, and I wouldn’t be surprised if they cracked the top 30 in the offensive stats book. I completely expect an additional 1-2 touchdowns a game just from their improvements.

That’s the offense. In my next argument, I will go into their strong suit, in defense.

Hunter’s BCS Buster: Boise State Broncos

As much I like TCU, I’m starting to come around on Boise State as this year’s BCS Buster. Call me crazy, but I’ll take a team that has actually managed to shove their way into a seat at the big kids’ table. Where they promptly ate Oklahoma’s dinner.

Sure, the biggest reason they won that game is now gone. Ian Johnson hasn’t been that big of an offensive factor lately anyway. The man the Broncos need is Kellen Moore. The lightly recruited kid from Prosser, Washington was an absolute phenom last year, outdueling other big name freshmen like Robert Griffin and Terrelle Pryor. His 157.11 QB rating was a full 15 points better than the next rookie on the list, and he led Boise to yet another undefeated regular season with a 25-10 QB-INT ratio and 3486 passing yards.

The problem might be that he’s the only remaining skill player from last years one-loss squad outside of tight end Tommy Gallarda who only managed six catches. And while it won’t be easy to replace the versatile Johnson, new starting tailback Jeremy Avery did rack up 614 yards on 5.5 ypc.

Thankfully, Moore should have plenty of time in the pocket to allow the new receivers to settle in. Four starters are back for an O line that paved the way for 152 rushing yards and 37.6 points per game. Fans consistently underrate the importance of consistency up front, and there aren’t many teams heading into 2009 with this much big ugly experience.

The conference is weak, as usual, and Boise shouldn’t have any trouble making it through a second league slate unscathed. The lone trouble game appears to be the September 3rd opener against Oregon on the smurf turf. Of course, they did march into Eugene last year and come away with a victory against a more experienced Ducks team with a QB making only his third start. With a wildy successful freshman year under his belt, I have to believe that Boise can take that one and make a huge statement about their preferred postseason destination.

Mike

Very nice Hunter, a team like Boise State has a good QB and an OL to hold him. And an easy schedule. Sounds like a BCS buster, but does it really pass the taste test? As you said, the team lost a good player in Ian Johnson. Jeremy Avery though is not a great player. He will have the occasional 150 yard game against a bad team like Idaho, but then will rush for 14 yards on eight carries the next. He just has not shown a sign that he can hold his own.

Just thinking about the Oregon game last year makes me cringe. It doesn’t help that I was at the game rooting for the losing team, but in a quick defense, BSU dropped three major dirty penalties(one ejection), and we were forced to un-redshirt a QB after our others went down. But regardless, the one tough game Boise faces this year will be no pushover.

But enough about those spud chuckers, and more about my purple pirates! I promised that the defense would be the talk next, and I am more than happy to talk defense for ECU. The Pirates have were in the top-40 in just about every defensive category, and ranked 5th in interceptions. Well actually Boise State also tied for 5th, but ECU had three pick-6 TD’s compared to BSU’s 0. Safety Van Eskridge is a great safety and could easily be taken on the first day of the draft next year, along with team MVP C.J Wilson. Wilson destroyed last year by racking up 11 sacks, and 70 tackles.

The special teams is no pushover either. If you have never heard the name Matt Dodge, then you are likely a normal human being who doesn’t track kickers. Matt Dodge is the best Punter in college, and averages a blazing 44 yards per punt, with a high of 73-yards. He is also good at knocking them into the 20 as well. He also knocked a 50-yard FG in during the spring game.

Hunter

I won’t try to argue against the ECU defense. They remind me of the Pat Hill Fresno State defenses from the early 2000s — hard hitting, flying to the ball, and basically just annoying as all hell to opposing offenses.

But the Boise defense managed to put a pretty decent statistical defensive season themselves. Take a look at some of these national rankings

22nd against the rush.
20th in total defense
3rd in scoring defense
2nd is passing efficiency defense
22nd in tackles for loss
18th in sacks
18th in third down defense
11th in red zone defense

Not too shabby. Sure, it came mostly against the lethargic WAC, but those are the same teams they’ll play this year. When it comes to busting the BCS, it doesn’t matter who you go undefeated against, only that you’re the lone mid-major with zero losses.

Now, the Broncos do only return five defensive starters, but three of the four defensive backs are in town again, including Kyle Wilson, perhaps the most underrated corner in the league. This is important, because the only WAC team they’ll face that finished in the top 60 of total offense is Nevada. Their forte? Passing.

So with a senior leader back at corner who picked off five passes last year, giving him eight for his career, they should be in a decent position to laugh their way to the top of the league. If they can get past that early game against Oregon, it’s smooth sailing. In my opinion, it’s impossible to stress just how imporant it is to get the Duck on the Blue Turf. Actually, more than a few real birds die on that field each year due to the fact that it looks like water. I’m not making this stuff up. Somewhere PETA is crying a little.

Mike

I was hoping you wouldn’t mention Kyle Wilson in your debate, because it’s hard to argue against his skills. He is 1st day pick as it is, and could easily make a push into the 1st round with a good year. I think I took him to the Texans in the second round of our back to back mock draft because I’m pretty sure he will come into the league and become a top-3 returner as a rookie. The defense likely looks better statistically because it is in a pushover conference, but you have to discount both sides of the ball when talking about any BCS Buster.

I will also never doubt that Boise State has an easier schedule. Should they beat Oregon at home (I do think the game will look (the score in last year’s game lies) a lot closer, and while I think the Ducks should drop a bird bomb into the blue, I thought they would dominate the game in the Zoo last year. I think however that assuming there is only one BCS Buster team this year- and I’m not so sure that undefeated BSU, TCU and ECU teams don’t put in two- I think that it might hurt the team a lot more than you think. TCU is another debate, but they could start in the top 15, and could get in through progress and a few good opponents. ECU has maybe the toughest schedule for any non-BCS team, let alone for a team trying to bust the BCS.

They start the season against an Appalachian State team that deserves to be in D1 football. They then go to West Virginia, a team that they spanked at home last year, and then to UNC for a tough in state game. I think though that ECU will scum out a win against Appalachian State, and then win a close game to West Virginia in their first real game without Pat White. I expect a safe win against UNC as well. UNC will likely be a top-25 team this year, but they lost a ton of talent at WR and on the OL. Their strong point is their secondary, but lucky for us we are a team that doesn’t throw deep (when we throw). I expect us to stop the run in that game, and then do some major damage with our offense.

The only other real competition for us will be a Virginia Tech team who will have faced BC, GT, and UNC the weeks prior to facing the Pirates at home. Oh, and don’t forget that ECU beat VT last year on a neutral site. I think Virginia Tech will have a good year, but I think ECU could pull out another big win this year. It’s no easy task for any team to have that out of conference schedule, but they beat the two harder of the four teams last year, and the team is going to be better on offense and more experienced on defense.

My final point is the coaching staff. Nobody really thinks that Skip Holtz is going to stay in Greenville his whole life, and this team comes with that little special feeling that he might go out with a major bang. Think Urban Meyer big. Skip Holtz will be coaching a BCS team next year. While Notre Dame might want him at some point, I will throw my prediction to Washington State. WSU is in a terrible slump and just can’t recruit players. I think that he can go there and recruit what he needs, and win with what he has. It’s in his blood.

Hunter

I’ve really only got one point left, although it’s the same point you made — the schedules.

There is one game, and one game only, that Boise State should struggle with and that’s Oregon. But here’s the rub, it’s at home. And oh yeah, they beat Oregon in Eugene last season. And while everyone will jump all over the Duck-driven bandwagon to start the season, I’m not sure this team will be as good as advertised early on. Sure, they’ll be a legit contender for the Pac 10, but they’ve got some holes.

The secondary lost a couple of good ones in Patrick Chung and Jairus Byrd. Nick Reed was a hardworking pass rusher who’ll be missed, and Max Unger and Fenuki Tupou were big contributors on the O line. And even though he struggled last season, Jaison Williams was a huge safety valve and a very talented receiver.

Im just not sure that the Ducks can march into Boise and beat a team that they couldn’t beat at home with a more experienced team.

After that, it’s a collection of WAC scrubs who couldn’t beat Kellen Moore as a freshman, and whom I don’t believe can do it now that he’s a year better and the playbook will be opening up for him.

So, as good as I think ECU and TCU and maybe even Utah can be, the schedules could keep those teams out of it. I mean wouldn’t it just be great if the very reason Boise didn’t get the BCS nod last year became the entire reason they managed to go unscathed in 2009.