2009 College Football Preview: SEC East

It’s the toughest conference in the nation, and that’s why I’m breaking it up over two days.  Okay, that and the fact that it’s impossible not to type 2500 words about one half of this league.

The East lost some big-time talent last season, including four first round draft picks.  But this side of the conference has traditionally been the big brother.  Teams like Florida, Georgia, and Tennessee have been perennial contenders for the conference’s BCS slot, and Florida has two of the last three national titles.  Go ahead and mark it down as three of the last four.  The defense returns all 11 starters and all 11 backups, while the offense returns the best player in the game, Tim Tebow.

Then there’s Georgia who always seems to surprise when no one’s looking.  After losing Matt Stafford and Knowshon Moreno, it’s safe to say some teams may be peering past the Bulldogs.  And no team in the world has made as much offseason noise as Tennessee and their human bullhorn coach, Lane Kiffin.  And let’s not forget about the Ole Ball Coach up at South Carolina.  He’s hungrier than he’s ever been for a good season.  Kentucky could have one of the strongest defenses in the league, and even Vanderbilt has 18 starters back.

So don’t expect any big surprises this year.  This is still a premier division in the premier conference in America.East

1.)  Florida Gators

Offense — It all starts with Tim Tebow.  And that’s pretty much where it ends too.  He’s the best player in the game today, and he’s already got two rings to prove it.  Remember all those projections about Matt Leinart having a shot to become the best college QB ever, well Tebow might actually do those things.  He’s got one title as the starter, and should have two Heismans by now, but I have a feeling he’ll get the nod in 2009.  New quarterbacks coach Scott Loeffler was brought in to tweak his release and his footwork, but he’s under strict instruction from Urban Meyer “not to screw Tim up.”  Hard to imagine Tebow improving upon his 30-4 TD-INT ratio from last year, but if anyone can do it, he’s the guy.

Then there’s the running back position which enters the season as a strength for the first time under Meyer.  Jeff Demps, Chris Rainey, and Emanuel Moody combined for 1674 rushing yards and 12 TDs.  That’s not counting Tebow’s 673 and 12.  And while it won’t be easy replacing Percy Harvin, all-world return man Brandon James is working to ease the loss.  Then there’s Riley Cooper (18-261-3), David Nelson (12-228-5), Deonte Thompson (18-269-3), and tight end Aaron Hernandez who really helped fill Cornelius Ingram’s shoes with 34 catches for 381 yards and 5 TDs of his own.  Up front, the Gators must replace two offensive tackles, but the talent is deep and the interior of the O line should be a strength with the Pouncey twins (Maurkice and Mike) back for another season as starters.

Defense — As scintillating as the offense will be, it’s hard to believe they’ll be as good as the Gator’s D.  Ready for this fact that you’ve only heard a hundred times:  all 11 starters are back along with all 11 backups.  That’s the top 22 starters returning from a defense that ranked 9th overall and 4th in scoring (12.93 ppg).

Again, there’s a clear cut leader on this unit, and it’s MLB Brandon Spikes.  Spikes will be a shoe-in finalist for every award he’s eligible for, and he’s got the production to back it up.  Over the last two seasons he’s put up 218 tackles, 3 sacks, 4 INTs and 2 TDs.  All he does is make plays.  And of course AJ Jones and Ryan Stamper aren’t exactly scrubs on either side.  DE Carlos Dunlap has a legitimate shot to be the first player drafted in 2010.  He’s a beast at 6-06 290 and really came on as a pass rusher last year.  His 9.5 sacks paced the team in 2008, and he’s joined by Jermaine Cunnigham’s six sacks on the other side.  The secondary should be insane again as well.  Back to continue his head-hunting spree is safety Major Wright, another Gator with a first-round grade.  If you’ve forgotten about his hit on Oklahoma WR Manny Johnson, you should look it up.  Joe Haden could be the first corner taken, and super soph Janoris Jenkins will shut down the other side of the field barring any lingering trouble from his recent legal issues.

2.)  Georgia Bulldogs

Offense — Everyone’s ready to jump all over the “Georgia will suck” bandwagon in 2009, but they better hope there’s an ejection lever.  The Bulldogs are consistently better when the chips are down, and this year shouldn’t be any different.  The offense hummed along with senior Joe Cox filling in for Matt Stafford, and while he’s not as gifted physically, he should cut down on some of the turnovers.  Caleb King, Carlton Thomas, and Washaun Ealy should do a fine job of replacing Knowshon Moreno, and Georgia might get back to their dangerous running back by committee ways.  Sophomore AJ Green was incredible as a freshman (56-963-8) and should only be better in year two.  Then there’s 6-05 208 Kris Durham on the other side.  Those are some pretty big safety nets for a first year starter at QB.  And finally, the O line could be the best in UGA history if they stay healthy.  That’s a big if, as always, but Trinton Sturdivant, Cordy Glenn, Ben Jones, and Justin Anderson form one of the biggest and most talented groups of returning big ugly starters in the country.

Defense — Again, the whole deal hinges on staying healthy.  The defensive tackles could be the best in the SEC with Jeff Owens back from an ACL injury and Geno Atkins back to terrorize opposing backfields.  Rennie Curran may be undersized, but he brings a wallop and makes more plays than guys twice his size.  He could be the most underrated LB in the nation.  Akeem Dent is a star in the making in the middle, but he has to become more consistent.  Then there’s safety Reshad Jones.  Seems like Georgia collects top safeties by the dozen, and Jones is no exception.  Prince Miller and Brandon Boykin should have an easier go of it at corner with Jones looming over the top.

3.)  Kentucky Wildcats

Offense — Here’s a huge surprise for you, I’m picking Kentucky to finish third in the SEC East.  And, of course, a lot of that hinges on the offense.  Here’s the good news:  it can’t get much worse.  After finishing 106th in the country in 2008, it became horridly apparent that all the offensive firepower lost after the 2007 season took a huge toll.  Want some more good new?  Nine of the guys who suffered through major growing pains in 2008 are back as starters for the 2009 campaign.  And that includes QB Mike Hartline.  Hartline was pretty inconsistent as a sophomore, but he did put up over 200 yards in four games, including the bowl win over East Carolina.  And after tossing only 9 TDs in injury limited action, he has to be chomping at the bit to get back out there.  Tony Dixon may be gone at RB, but so is his paltry 3.3 ypc average.  Alfonso Smith should be able to top Dixon’s 430 yards.  That’ll be easier if the three returning starters on the O line can actually open a hole or two.  It won’t be easy, but if they can improve their 22 ppg by just one TD then they’ll be a top 40 offense again.

Defense — But they just lost DE Jeremy Jarmon you say?  Well they’re replacing him with gigantic sophomore Chandler Burden who stands around 6-05 290.  Not a bad backup plan considering he’s as big as most DTs.  Then there’s the linebacking corps led by another of the most underrated players in the country in MLB Micah Johnson.  He’s a lock to become one of those NFL prospects you’ve never heard of but every NFL GM has.  He put up 93 tackles last season, but expect him to easily top the 100 tackle barrier in 2009.  And finally, the secondary got a huge boost when Trevard Lindley decided to return for his senior year.  He’s got a legitimate claim to being the best corner back in the country this fall.  Opposing offenses will literally be forced to play with only half of the field about 95% of the time.  Lindley isn’t a huge stat hound (though he does have 9 career INTs), but you can bet that it’s cause other clubs were throwing away from him.  He also defended 15 passes last year, good enough for 18th in the nation.

4.)  Tennessee Volunteers

Offense — There’s not much to say about the Vols in 2009.  At least there’s not much left after Lane Kiffin and the national media have already opened their mouths to spew about the team endlessly since his hiring.  So, I’ll keep this brief.  Tennessee is going to be in for a long season.  On the short list of coaches you don’t want to piss off in your first year with a team that isn’t on the same level it used to be talent-wise, you’ll find names like Urban Meyer, Nick Saban, Steve Spurrier, and even the gentle Mark Richt.  Well Kiffin’s poked them all.  And not like a flirtatious facebook poke.  This is a full on ninja spear type poke.  And he’ll pay for it this year.  You can go ahead and mark all those games down as losses, and the offense will be the biggest reason.  Jonathan Crompton just doesn’t have it, in my opinion.  The running game struggled with a very talented back last year.  The receivers returning are more on the level of what we usually see from Vanderbilt and won’t exactly scare anyone.  But the O line could be one of UT’s best ever.  Center Josh McNeil is one of the tops in the country, and his mates are pretty legit too.  But it won’t matter if the talent behind them doesn’t step it up.  Kiffin may be headed in the right direction, but I don’t think it will show in 2009.

Defense — Here’s where the Vols could prove me wrong, in a big way.  Lost in the quagmire of underachievement last season was the insane success of this defense.  Tennessee finished third in total D and 10th in scoring D.  And this year’s version could be better.  DT Dan Williams needs to step it up as he’s the only starter over 257 pounds.  He’s got the talent, but needs to become more explosive.  The linebackers, a perennial strength, are at it again.  Rico McCoy is the next great one.  He’s posted a whopping 230 tackles in 2.5 years, and should be a big-time player on what should again be a great D.  But no one on this unit compares to Eric Berry.  Berry is perhaps the best defender in the nation.  He’s a human highlight reel in the surest sense of the cliche’.  If I though he was going to stay for all four years, then I’d peg him as the most likely candidate to break the NCAA career interception record.  But since he’s so damn good, he’ll be gone after 2009, but look for him to have a special season even by his own standards this fall.  But perhaps the biggest reason this D won’t fall off after losing legendary D coordinator John Chavis is that he’s being replaced with one of the NFL’s greatest defensive minds, Monte Kiffin.  Kiffin is a Tampa 2 genius, and he inherits a team tailor-made to run that scheme.  It will take some adjusting from the players, but Kiffin is good enough to get the best out of his guys.

5.)  South Carolina Gamecocks

Offense — I think this is Spurrier’s last year.  How can an offensive guru suffer through another anemic season on that side of the ball?  This offense has lost confidence over the years, and Spurrier is partly to blame with his nervous trigger finger aimed squarely at the quarterbacks.  Stephen Garcia is very talented, and he does give the Gamecocks some hope, but I’m not sure he can be as good as he’ll need to be to overcome the other offensive deficiencies.  The offensive line gets four starters back, and that could be a big deal for Garcia’s success.  But they also lose Kenny McKinley which will hurt more than people know.  He’s been the only real offensive playmaker over the last couple of years, and he won’t easily be replaced.  Then there’s the running game which is being handed over to Eric Baker, who while talented, only managed 182 yards last year as a freshman.  This team has the pieces in place to surprise, but the fans in Columbia have been waiting on that surprise for a long time, and I get the feeling that the players themselves don’t believe it’s coming either.

Defense — The defense has been the saving grace of Spurrier’s teams since his arrival, and that’s not exactly encouraging heading into the 2009 season.  Eric Norwood will be a force playing all over the front seven, but he can’t do it all on his own.  Jasper Brinkley was a big-time contributor on this team in the lockerroom and on the field.  But he’s gone, and now we’ll find out if Norwood can handle the spotlight on D.  Then there’s the other five guys that must be replaced.  The secondary lost corner Captain Munnerlyn and safety Emanuel Cook, and that will further hurt the unit.  And if that wasn’t enough, former starter Ladi Ajiboye (he has Ladi and boy in his name, how does he handle his identity) looks like he might have lost his hold on his first team status.  It’s the same story as the offense.  The talent is there, and the potential could pay off in a big season, but the attitude and morale have seemingly been squashed on this team.  They’ll have to really step it up to keep from finishing without a bowl game again.

6.)  Vanderbilt Commodores

Offense — I hate to say it, because it was awesome to see the Commodores break through last season and finally make a bowl game.  And it was greater still to see them come away with a win.  But I think this year is a step back for the program.  I said the same thing last year, and I was burned for it, but I’m calling it again.  Hopefully I’m wrong.  And it’s certainly not because of lack of experience.  The Dores get nine starters back on offense, and while quarterback isn’t technically one of them, Larry Smith was at the helm in the win over Boston College, and Mackenzi Adams has flashed amazing ability throughout his career.  One of them will need to nail down the spot ful-time to provide some consistency. RB Jared Hawkins only managed 593 yards last season, but he did it on 4.4 ypc.  Gone is top receiver Sean Walker, but Jame Graham and Justin Wheeler don’t exactly have high standards to live up to.  The biggest missing piece is DJ Moore.  Moore only touched the ball 16 times on offense, but his explosive ability on the offensive side of the ball was a major help to a paltry unit.  Thankfully, all five starters return on the O line, and that is an often understimated facet of college success.  Of course, that line did give up 27 sacks in 2008.  That was good enough for 71st in the nation.  Things will have to get better on this side of the ball.

Defense — Here’s where Vanderbilt, like most SEC teams, made up for their offensive shortcomings.  And again, a big piece of that puzzle is missing this season.  He’s the same piece I mentioned on offense, DJ Moore.  He was easily a top three corner in the league in 2008, and he’ll be missed.  The respect opposing coordinators had for more really eased the load on the rest of the secondary.  Now he’s gone, and Myron Lewis will have to really have to step his game up now that he’ll be covering the best WRs in the conference.  And his interception total of five could drop.  Still, the entire front seven is back after finishing 69th in the country against the rush.  That’s nothing special, but it’s hard to argue against the potential cohesiveness of those guys.  The good news is that this defense compiled 30 sacks last season.  Broderick Stewart and Steven Jones compined for 10.5 of those.  Not too bad from your starting ends.

I feel like I need to include this paragraph to explain why I have Vandy picked in the cellar of the SEC East.  It’s the schedule.  They knocked off South Carolina at home last year, but that one’s on the road in 2009.  They also upset Ole Miss, but I have a hard time believing that will happen again.  And they also traded a surprise win at home over Auburn for an almost certain loss on the road against LSU.  If they lose just two of those games then last year’s 6-6 finish turns into 4-8.  I’m not saying that six wins is impossible, but when your SEC road schedule includes Florida, LSU, South Carolina and Tennessee then it’s not looking good.  Not to mention the OOC game at home against a surging Georgia Tech squad.  Vandy is better than they have been, but I just don’t see them overcoming the obstacles their schedule presents.