No team looks forward to playing in Tiger Stadium. Of course, Ole Miss and Alabama don't have to.
The West is a bit harder to figure out than the East. There are three teams with honest chances to represent this division in the SEC Championship.
Which is why I’m taking the easy way out and projecting a three-way tie at the top of the West (you’ll have to tune in to a later article to find out who I’m predicting to win the tie-breaker). Ole Miss, LSU, and Alabama all look like safe picks for 2009. Bama’s got nine starters back on a defense whose forte’ just happens to be shutting down the forte’ of most SEC offenses — the running game. LSU is loaded at every position and finally has an able starting QB and a legendary defensive coordinator. And Ole Miss is facing expectations that haven’t been sniffed around Oxford in years. Plus they’ve got a QB named Snead who ain’t too shabby.
Then there’s Arkansas looking to make a big leap in year two under Bobby Petrino. There’s a new regime in place at Auburn. And there’s nowhere to go but up. Even Mississippi State is breeding some excitement with the hiring of Dan Mullen.
It’s a new look west, with two new head coaches and a slew of first year coordinators. Maybe this really is Ole Miss’ year. Or maybe not…
1.) Ole Miss Rebels
Offense — Go ahead and laugh Tide and Tigers fans. I actually laughed a little myself when I typed the number one next to Ole Miss’ name. But the Rebels could have the most explosive offense in the league this side of Florida. It all comes down to junior quarterback Jevan Snead. His 2762 yards and 26 TDs were a pleasant surprise for Rebels fans last season, and they played a major role in the success of the program. They were especially nice considering the lack of success Ole Miss had with their last high-profile transfer quarterback, Brent Schaeffer. But Snead, who has a legitimate shot to be the first QB taken in the 2010 draft with his deadly accuracy and pro system roots, won’t have to do it all alone. Cordera Eason and Brandon Bolden combined for 1189 rushing yards and 8 TDs on the ground in 2008, and Bolden was only a freshman. Then there’s wide receiver Dexter McCluster. McCluster is this year’s version of Percy Harvin, and he’ll be used all over the field and in the Wild Rebel formation to fully utilize his speed and playmaking knack. You heard the original Harvin comparison here — remember that. He’s joined by the steady Shay Hodge as Snead’s top receiving options.
The problem, and it’s a problem that’s being severely underestimated by most, is that Michael Oher and his blindside protection are gone. Snead should be the first to tell you that having Oher watch his back was a major reason he was so successful in his first season as the starter. John Jerry is a beast, and he’ll be joined by Reid Neely and Daverin Geralds as senior returning starters, but I have a feeling that the Rebels will feel the loss of Oher in a big way. Still, they have all the pieces in place to really crank up the offensive numbers. That’s pretty lofty considering they finished 29th in total O last season.
Defense — Again, the expectations are through the roof. It’ll be interesting to see if Houston Nutt can finally deliver when the spotlight’s on. But losing Peria Jerry is another heavy blow. This Ole Miss defense reminds me a lot of LSU’s defense heading into last season. Sports writers everywhere tripped all over themselves to tell you that the LSU defensive line would be even better despite losing Glen Dorsey, and they’re doing it again with the Rebels. But LSU’s defense had Tyson Jackson you say? Well, Ole Miss has Greg Hardy, and he’s being billed as the best thing since cocktail dresses in the Grove. But losing an interior force like Jerry or Dorsey has a rippling effect on the entire D line. Plus, Hardy has never been able to stay healthy or consistently hungry. It’s hard to argue against his 1+ sack per game average, but I’m not ready to believe that this D line can be as effective without their heart and soul.
The rest of the D, like the rest of the team, is stocked with talent from the Ed Orgeron days, but it’s mostly unproven. Linebackers Allen Walker and Jonathan Cornell look fine on paper, but neither has recorded more than 42 tackles in a season. And the secondary gets three starters back, but the lone defection is safety Jamarca Sanford, and he took his 82 tackles and 2 forced fumbles with him. This team has a lot of potential, but their biggest ally may be the fact that they miss Florida and Georgia from the east, and their conference road games are at South Carolina, Vanderbilt, Auburn, and Mississippi State. The schedule sets up pretty nicely for a West title run.
1a.) LSU Tigers
Offense — Okay, so I’m taking the easy way out here and calling LSU 1a in the West. If the Ole Miss game was at home, I’d have them pegged as the clear cut top team here, but since that one and the Bama game are on the road, I’m calling it a tie. The biggest question last season was brought up by a naughty Ryan Perriloux who couldn’t stay out of trouble and left an underprepared Jarrett Lee holding the bag. Lee tossed 7 pick sixes on his way to quarterbacking the worst LSU season since Nick Saban took over a decade ago. Now, the onus is really on Les Miles, as all the players on the roster are his guys, and he’ll get some help from a very talented roster. First of all, the QB position looks settled with sophomore Jordan Jefferson back to prove his exceptional play in the blowout Peach Bowl win over Ga Tech was more than a fluke. Then there’s the absolute stable of running backs like Charles Scott, Keiland Williams, Richard Murphy and Trindon Holliday. And not to be outdone, the receivers look stacked with Brandon Lafell, Terrance Tolliver, and Chris Mitchell.
And how could I forget Richard Dickson, the sure-handed tight end who was given LSU’s ceremonial #18 jersey by Jacob Hester, who received it from Matt Mauck. Not to mention the two super-recruits Rueben Randle and Russell Sheppard who will certainly see early playing time all over the field. And I’d be remiss if I didn’t let you know that all of these guys will be running around behind a great offensive line led by tackles Ciron Black and Joseph Barksdale. Yeah, it’s safe to say this is easily one of the top three most talented teams in the nation.
Defense — And here’s where the other question has been answered. Tweedle Dee and Tweedle Dum are out as “co defensive morons” and in there place arrived John Chavis. People don’t seem to realize how great Chavis’ Tennessee defenses were over the last 18 years, and his presence will have a massive effect on the LSU defense. Lost in the horrible season the Vols suffered through in 2008 is the fact that their D still finished third in the nation. And as talented as the Vols have been on that side of the ball, even Chavis has never had skill like this to work with.
The defensive line lost a few playmakers, but really how many plays did they make? Rahim Alem has the talent to develop into a monster pass rusher, Al Woods is an enormous cog in the middle, and Charles Alexander has experience on the other side. The linebackers are just what Chavis likes too. They’re a little small, but they have great speed, great instincts, and great athleticism to flourish in his scheme. And for a guy who has turned out some great collegiate secondaries it doesn’t get much better than Patrick Peterson (who was awesome as a freshman), Chris Hawkins, Danny McCray, and Chad Jones. With Eric Berry and Major Wright playing in the same conference, Jones doesn’t get the attention he deserves. Now that he appears to have finally nailed down the starting job, he’ll become a household name around the country and a frightening thought for opposing QBs. If you need more proof, just check this out.
1b.) Alabama Crimson Tide
Offense — And here’s the third team I’m copping out with. Alabama has arrived, and although it happened quicker than most expected it to, that’s no reason to discount the level the program has reattained. I’m not completely sold on them as a team that will make another run like the one we saw in 2008, and the offense is the main reason for my concern. Greg McElroy is a pretty talented guy. You don’t start for Nick Saban otherwise. But he’s also very raw, and history has shown that first year SEC quarterbacks don’t always fare as well as expected. The good news is that he’s replacing a guy who led his team to a 12-0 start despite throwing only 9 TDs, so he won’t be asked to do too much. The guys who will be asked to carry the load will line up behind him. Mark Ingram, Terry Grant, and Trent Richardson have their work cut out for them. Alabama leaned heavily on the ground game last season, and with a new starting QB, they’ll have to lean even harder early on. Still, Ingram put up 728 yards and 12 TDs on a 5.1 ypc as a freshman, so there’s no reason to believe he can’t top those numbers in year two.
Except for this reason: the O line was gutted by the draft. The Tide have two, count em two, starters returning up front. And the guys they lost were only the best at their positions in the entire conference. People continually tell me that John Parker Wilson will be easy to replace because the running game is the focus of the offense. But what they forget is the fact that Andre Smith and Antoine Caldwell had as much to do with the RB’s success as the RBs themselves. Of course, if Alabama suddenly wants to become a spread team, they’ll have one of the most talented receivers in the country to throw to in Julio Jones. It’ll be pretty exciting to see what he can do as a sophomore.
Defense — If the offense is a question mark, then the defense is an exclamation point. The Tide get nine starters back on the best 3-4 defense in college ball. And they also get back a guy who weighs as much as two normal players. Terrence Cody and his often 380 pounds of girth have supposedly slimmed down to a svelte 340, but that shouldn’t make him any less scary. He eats up the run against the best rushing teams in the game, and he’ll only be better as a senior, provided his weight loss leads to less time on the injury list. Behind him, Rolando McClain is a possible first round prospect at inside linebacker, and he’s joined by three other returning starters to form the most complete corps in the SEC. I’ll honestly be surprised if any one player breaks the 100 yard mark against the Tide.
But if you want to look for one problem area on a potentially incredible defense, then you need look no further than the secondary. I know that Javier Arenas and Kareem Jackson form one of the top corner duos in America. Both are fast, instinctive, and athletic. And you could do a lot worse than Justin Wooddall at strong safety. But losing Rashad Johnson could have a major effect on this defense. Nick Saban called him the “smartest player” he’s ever coached. That’s a big deal in a complex scheme like the one Bama employs. Johnson wasn’t simply doing his own thing nearly perfectly, he was the consummate quarterback of the defense. It was his job to make sure everyone else was in the right place, and he was pretty damn good at it. When LSU lost Jack Hunt at safety, they dropped from a national title defense to an 8-5 team.
4.) Arkansas Razorbacks
Offense — Bobby Petrino has got to be excited. A year after surprising a few of SEC clubs with the Dick brothers at the helm, he finally has a top shelf quarterback to run his system. Ryan Mallett was the number one QB recruit in the country coming out of high school (depending on who you ask), and he’s certainly the most coveted QB to become a razorback since Mitch Mustain, who’s now playing second or third fiddle at USC. Mallett should have a nice group of playmakers to ease into the SEC with. Joe Adams has blazing speed and was another high profile recruit who didn’t get a chance to shine as a freshman due to inconsistent QB play. London Crawford and Lucas Miller combined for almost 900 yards of their own. But the best receiver on this team plays tight end. Last year’s yardage leader, DJ Williams, is back after posting 699 receiving yards. He’s a highly underrated guy who should provide Mallett with a nice safety blanket.
The running back situation was a surprise success after losing Darren McFadden, Felix Jones, and Peyton Hillis. Michael Smith may be small (5-07 176), but he still managed over 1000 yards on the ground on 5.2 ypc with 8 TDs. He also cuaght 32 balls. Time will tell if his slight frame can handle more than 207 carries, but that may not be his biggest obstacle. Center Jonathan Luigs is gone. His ability to open holes up front was a major part of the recent success of Arkansas running backs. The other four starters are back, and Mitch Petrus appears to be a solid guard, but the Hogs could be hoping for some quick production out of Mallett if the running game stalls without Luigs.
Defense — It’s not every year that a team gets all 11 starters back on defense. It’s weirder stil when one conference has two teams that fortunate. But Arkansas won’t be apologizing anytime soon. DT Malcolm Sheppard is one of the most underrated performers in the country. You don’t hear his name that often, but you can bet that SEC offensive coordinators remember his 52 tackles and six sacks from a year ago. He’s joined by a decently talented, yet underachieving group that will have to do better than the 16 takeaways they mustered in 2008. With a new quarterback at the helm, they need to give the offense better field position. Finishing 102nd in turnover margin won’t cut it.
5.) Auburn Tigers
Offense — It can’t get any worse, can it? After canning a spread offense coordinator in 2008, Tommy Tuberville was shown the door. So what’s the first thing new head man Gene Chizik does at Auburn? He hires another spread coordinator. The good news is that Gus Malzahn is a proven genius who can work miracles with this unit if given the proper time. And he should be afforded a few years. The problem wasn’t so much with the coordinator as it was with the fact that Auburn’s personnel didn’t fit the scheme… at all.
Malzahn will likely ease his players into the attack, but he’ll have to find someone to quarterback the whole thing. My money’s on the athletic Kodi Burns who’s shown brilliance at times, but has been more consistently incompetent. Neil Caudle will get his chance, but I just don’t believe that Auburn can afford to shelve Burns’ playmaking ability. Ben Tate will help out from the running back spot, and the offensive line is always a strength, but this could be a year that requires a lot of patience from Auburn fans. Hopefully the administration is as open-minded.
Defense — No matter how bad the offense is, the defenses at Auburn will always be tough. It’s like playing in a tar pit. For years the Tigers have thrived with smart, mean, gutsy players who don’t mind missing out on individual accolades. This year appears to be more of the same. 8 starters are back for a unit that allowed only 18 points per game in 2008. That was good enough for 14th in the nation. And they also finished 29th overall. Not too bad.
So how do you top that in 2009? For one you bring in a head coach who was quite the Auburn D coordinator himself back in the day. The problem here is that the offense was so bad that the defense was on the field for a large majority of the games. That can’t happen this year if Auburn wants to get back to a bowl. Michael Goggans, Antonio Coleman, Josh Bynes, and Walter McFadden all have the potential to make offenses cringe, but it’s tough to be on the field for 40 minutes every week. The way I see it, this team is a year or two away from big things, if they’re coming. I don’t see the offense taking a step forward with another new coordinator and the same type of players. And it’ll be hard for the defense to do much better than last year. As good as they were, it wasn’t good enough, and the West is only getting stronger.
6.) Mississippi State Bulldogs
Offense — Well, at least there’s hope. That’s about all Dan Mullen can sell at this point. The Bulldogs quickly replaced Vanderbilt as the SEC’s doormat last season, and Sylvester Croom, despite being one of my favorite coaches, was fired prompting the hire of Tim Tebow’s old mentor. Of course, this is Starkville, not Gainesville, and there isn’t anyone even close to Tim Tebow on the roster. Senior Tyson Lee is penciled in as the starter, but I wouldn’t count on him finishing the season there. For one, he only completed 58.8 percent of his passes last season while averaging 138.1 yards per game, and two, mega-recruit Tyler Russell was on campus in the spring learning Mullen’s system. Russell will be starting by the end of the year.
Of course, there is a sliver of a silver lining for the Bulldogs. RB Anthony Dixon is back again, and he’s one of the best bruisers in the SEC. Some fans may not recognize him now that he’s slimmed down to 235 pounds, but at 6-01 he’s still a load. Dixon’s been starting since his first year on campus, and his 869 yards and 7 TDs last year were pretty impressive considering the lack of a passing game.
Defense — Mississippi State allowed a mediocre 24.7 points per game last year, but they stil finished 60th in the nation. In fact, they were 35th in total defense. So they should be able to keep themselves in a game or two. Jamar Chaney is a great one at middle linebacker, and he’ll be asked to step up now that Derek Pegues is gone as the leader of the D. Of course, it won’t be easy considering he missed every game after the opener last year, but he’s got the talent. Next to him is a player who I really expect to surprise this season. I had KJ Wright pegged as a player to watch last season, and he didn’t disappoint finishing second on the team with 72 tackles while adding nine TFL and 4 sacks. It won’t be easy to replace Pegues, but this defense is legitimately good enough to pull the team out of the cellar with a few upsets.
OPOY — Tim Tebow, QB, Florida — Does this need any explanation? No, I didn’t think so.
DPOY — Eric Berry, S, Tennessee — There are only about one hundred legitimate candidates for this award, but none of them make the constant impact that Berry does. He’s a highlight waiting to happen, and with Monte Kiffin coaching him, he could be in for his biggest season yet.
Newcomer of the Year — Carlton Thomas, RB, Georgia — Everyone expects Caleb King or Washaun Ealy to step into Knowshon’s role, but I have a feeling that Thomas will end up leading the Dawgs in rushing this year. Watch a couple of minutes from the spring game and you’ll understand why this guy is my pick for newcomer of the year. Expect 1000+ yards and 10 TDs.
