That, Ladies and Gentlemen, is the TCU Frog Horn. Weird right? I mean it doesn't even look like a frog. I still find it strangely alluring though...
The Mountain West is coming closer and closer to solidifying itself as one of the big boys. Right now, I’d say they’re better than the Big East at the top, but depth has long been a problem for this conference. After TCU, BYU, and of course Utah, the conference really drops off.
Wyoming, New Mexico, San Diego State, and UNLV have long been mired in the bog of mediocrity, and that’s in a good season. But with Air Force holding steady as a 7-9 win team, and with the resurgence of Colorado State, this conference could be building a heck of a case for their next playoff proposal. They’re not there yet, but if the big three can stay the course, the little guys will arrive soon enough.
There were a lot of new hires in the conference this season. Dave Christensen took over at Wyoming, Brady Hoke at San Diego State, and Mike Locksley at New Mexico. Hopefully that signifies a rise in some of these schools. But for 2009 it’s more of the same ole same ole. TCU and Utah will be great defensively, while BYU continues to be the league’s offensive flagship. On a completely unrelated note, this conference has no old school logos. Utah, TCU, Wyoming, and New Mexico are all using the same emblems they started with back in the day.
1.) TCU Horned Frogs
Offense — The loss of Aaron Brown at tailback won’t be as hard to overcome as some would have you believe. In fact, despite being picked up in the 7th round by the Detroit Lions, Brown didn’t lead the Horned Frogs in rushing last season, and he only caught 12 balls. Bruising TD machine Joseph Turner is back, however, and he looks like the he’ll have some competition from fellow senior Ryan Christian. Either way, the Horned Frogs end up with a starting RB who averaged 4+ yards per carry last season, and the two combined for 15 TDs on the ground.
But this offense will live and die by the play of junior QB Andy Dalton. Dalton’s never really been asked to carry the O, but he did have his fare share of impressive moments last season. Before missing two midseason games, Dalton had a pathetic TD:INT ratio of 0 to 2. In his final six games of the season, he improved that number to 11 to 3, and he also averaged 237 passing yards per contest. Not bad numbers to build off of. He’ll also get his top receiver back, Jimmy Young (59-988-5) along with a few younger guys looking to make names for themselves. They won’t suddenly turn into Texas Tech, but more passing should be expected this season. It won’t hurt that both starting OTs are back along with Kyle Dooley at guard. If they can replace three time all-conference center Blake Schlueter then Dalton should have plenty of time in the pocket to boost his numbers.
Defense — This has been the Horned Frogs bread and butter over the last few years. No team in the country has been as consistently dominant on this side of the ball. The bad news? Only four starters are back from the top unit in the country last year. The good news? Coach Gary Patterson says they could and should be better defensively. That’s pretty hard to imagine considering TCU allowed only 47.1 rushing yards per game in 2008. But they do return one of the premier defenders in the country in DE Jerry Hughes.
Hughes led the nation with 15 sacks and added six forced fumbles and two INTs. Not a bad building block when you’re trying to replace six of your front seven starters. Hughes decision to return has given the Frogs hope that another monster defensive season lies ahead of them, and he’ll be relied on early and often with such a small amount of experience coming back. Though, not all is lost. LB Daryl Washington is a senior, and he does have some significant playing time under his belt. And the secondary is home to the other three returning starters, including both corners. This team has a great chance to finally slip into the BCS.
2.) Utah Utes
Offense — Wow. That’s all that’s left of the Utes major upset of Alabama in the Sugar Bowl. Just fond memories and a three letter word. But still, wow. Unfortunately, the man responsible for most of that clean expletive is gone. QB Brian Johnson seems like he’s been in Salt Lake for a decade, but his reign is finally over. In his place will step either the mildly experienced Corbin Louks or the extremely athletic freshman DeVonte Christopher. One of them will end up staring at some big shoes to fill.
Thankfully, they won’t have to do it all alone. Running back Matt Asiata is back after averaging 4.8 yards per carry and earning 12 TDs in his first year as the starter. Either of the QBs can bring an additional threat on the ground, and Louks did average over 8 yards per carry in spot duty last season. They’ll be joined by returning top receiver David Reed. Reed will have to step his game up as well after the top three pass catchers from last year’s undefeated season all graduated. At least the O line looks strong with underrated LT Zane Beadles back for his final stint up front. He’s a dark horse candidate for All-America honors and should be a day one draft pick with a good season.
Defense — This is where the Utes will make their push for another MWC title. As much as the offense may struggle, the D should keep them in most games. One of my favorite players in the country is back for another go, and he’s coming off of a hell of a performance against Alabama. Stevenson Sylvester notched three sacks and a fumble recovery against the Tide. And he’ll be a top candidate for all-conference and all-America honors in 2009.
Big-name players like Paul Kruger and Sean Smith are gone, but there’s plenty of talent leftover from last season’s 13-0 team to put up some impressive numbers again in 2009. Defensive end Koa Misi appears ready to step out of Kruger’s shadow and become another great pressure-provider. The secondary also gets back safeties Joe Dale and Robert Johnson, who picked off two passes of his own against Alabama. With the offense down a bit, Utah will have to lean on their defense early, and they appear to be up to the task. The lack of big-time offense outside of BYU in the Moutain West is another reason to like the Utes’ chances.
3.) BYU Cougars
Offense — If there’s one team in the league with an offense powerful enough to score on these great defenses, it’s BYU. They’ve been excellent on this side of the ball in recent years. And despite the loss of national receiving leader Austin Collie, they should be even better here in 2009. That dream starts with QB Max Hall. Hall was a major dark horse Heisman candidate last year leading a team many thought would challenge for a spot in the BCS. He didn’t reach those goals, but with almost 4000 passing yards and 35 TDs he didn’t exactly disappoint. Now that Collie’s gone, he’ll have to spread the ball around more often, but if he can cut down on the INTs, this could be a suprise team on the national level.
He’ll still have a pretty potent weapon to throw to in TE Dennis Pitta. Pitta caught 83 balls of his own in 2008, and racked up 1083 yards. With no more Collie there to steal passes and frisbees, Pitta should score more often and become Hall’s new leading man.
And in the backfield, the Cougars welcome back on of the most dangerous dual threat RBs in the country. Harvey Unga was simply amazing last season as he rushed for 1132 yards and 11 scores while adding 42 receptions and another four TDs. He’ll be counted on more often as well with the loss of Collie, and at 6-00 239 I think he can carry the load. All of this action will come behind one of the best OTs in the conference, Matt Reynolds. The other starters are pretty green, but this O isn’t dropping off anytime soon.
Defense — Seven starters are back from a unit that ranked 59th in the nation in total defense and 39th in scoring D last year. Those aren’t awful numbers, but they’ll have to better this fall if the Cougars want any realistic hope of getting over the hump. Part of the reason the numbers aren’t eye-popping is due to the somewhat surprising success of MWC offenses last season, and BYU did finish third in the conference in points per game allowed behind only TCU and Utah who both finished in the top 12 nationally in that category.
The return of MWC career sack leader (24) Jan Jorgensen is reason to believe in this unit up front. He’s joined by fellow end Brent Denney. The linebacker corps returns completely in tact as all three starters are seniors with good experience. But the secondary, which ranked 74th nationally allowing 215+ passing yards per game, again looks like a weak link as only two starters return, and only FS Scott Johnson has serious playing time under his belt.
4.) Colorado State Rams
Offense — What a surprise this was. In his first year at the helm, Steve Fairchild led the Rams to a bowl win over Fresno State after the Rams had suffered through a 3-9 season only a year ago. They also posted their best MWC record since 2005. Well, at least the Rams are no stranger to the phrase “what a difference a year makes.” Despite their success last year, the offense is pretty decimated heading into 2009. The biggest reason for their success last year, RB Gartrell Johnson, is gone and he took his 1476 rushing yards and 12 TDs with him.
Junior John Mosure looks like the man who’ll be asked to replace Johnson, and there’s some reason for hope after he scored twice and averaged over 4 yards per carry last year. But the quarterback situation could be the downfall here. Grant Stucker, Klay Kubiak, and Jon Eastman are all competing with Stucker holding a slight edge at the moment. Former QB Billy Farris wasn’t superman, but his 19 TDs and 2934 passing yards were a pretty effective complement to the ground game. Basically the Rams are losing 4410 yards and 31 TDs of production from last year’s starting QB-RB tandem and are replacing it with 144 yards and two TDs going by this fall’s projected depth chart. That’s going to hurt some no matter how good the new guys are.
At least they’ll have second team All-MWC receiver Rashaun Greer to throw to, and he may have to work especially hard to improve upon his 63 catches in 2008. The offensive line does get four senior starters back, however, and that could be a major factor in their success.
Defense — It’s stats like this one that make me wonder why I’m picking the Rams to finish this highly in the conference this season. Last year, they gave up 30.2 points per game, good enough for 89th in the country. It’s kind of tough to figure out if having seven starters back from that unit is a good thing or not.
The Rams will have to hope that ends Cory Macon and Sam Stewart can generate more of a pass rush in 2009 if they want to improve. Last season they only managed nine, good enough for dead last in the entire country. Look for Fairchild to lean on LBs Mychal Sisson and Ricky Brewer for help there and against the run where the Rams finished 102nd nationally. The secondary wasn’t much better, giving up 220 yards per game through the air. Still, Fairchild is a good coach, and he’s got some momentum heading into his second year. Remember, this conference is top heavy, and they still made a bowl in 2008 despite losing to all three teams ranked ahead of them here.
5.) Air Force Falcons
Offense — The Falcons shot out of the gate last year with an 8-2 start that included a one touchdown loss to eventually undefeated Utah. Unfortunately for their fans and players, they looked more like a team that had been shot in their final three games, all losses. Six starters are back on offense though, so there is reason for hope that a stumbling finish can be avoided in 2009. That should be a little easier with Army and UNLV among their final three opponents in this season.
The quarterback situation that looked so strong heading into the offseason is now a question mark with the spring absence of Tim Jefferson who took extra classes to make up for poor academics. If Jefferson does find his way onto the field the offense should hum along behind four returning starters along the O line. As a freshmen, Jefferson was pretty effective piloting the offense even if his personal numbers weren’t outstanding. Thankfully, starting tailback Asher Clark is also back. The Falcons outscored their opponents by an average of 4.6 ppg in 2008, but that number must rise to avoid another late season meltdown.
Defense — Seven starters are back for yet another MWC team on this side of the ball, but that hasn’t proven to be a recipe for success on it’s own. In those final three losses last year, the Falcons’ D gave up 38.6 ppg, and allowed 44 to a previously anemic TCU offense. That has to change.
Of course, there’s reason to believe it could as the Falcons welcome back 118 tackles from LB Ken Lamendola. He should be a major reason this defense has a shot to become more consistent this fall. Five times in 2008 the Falcons held opponents to 10 points or less, but they surrended 30 or more five times as well. The secondary benefitted from the pressure of graduated DE Jake Paulson who notched nine sacks, but with three returning starters (both corners) they could be primed to best last year’s six combined INTs.
6.) UNLV Rebels
Offense — For the first time in four years, the Rebels broke the two win barrier and finished 5-7. That doesn’t sound great, but when you’ve only won six games since 2005, it’s reason to celebrate. Now, it’s time to take the next step. And with QB Omar Clayton healthy and returning to the lineup after a knee injury that cut his 2008 season short, they Rebels might have to rent a bigger party bus in 2009.
Before missing the final three and a half games of the season, Clayton was a deadly offensive weapon, throwing 18 TDs to only four INTs and and adding 163 yards on the ground. He should be even better as a junior with all-conference WR Ryan Wolfe back for another go at 100 receptions. He came close last season with 88, including three games with 10+ grabs. Phillip Payne and Rodelin Anthony round out one of the better WR corps in the league. The biggest loss is do-it-all running back Frank Summers. Summers was an absolute beast on the field (check this out), but his leadership and team first attitude might be missed even more than his on-the-field feats.
Defense — There’s not much to say here. Last season the Rebels were 60th nationally against the pass, but lost a lot in their secondary. They were 110th against the run, but return quite a few pieces up front. Those pieces, LBs Jason Beauchamp and Starr Fuimaono and DL Malo Taumua and Martin Tevaseu, have the potential to be better at stopping running backs, but they certainly haven’t shown it so far. Fuimaono did have an impressive 207 campaign, and hopefully he can return to form after missing all but two game last season with a knee injury.
7.) New Mexico Lobos
Offense — There’s a new daddy in town, a discipline daddy. Kudos if you caught that reference. Mike Locksley comes over from playing OC at Illinois to hopefully lead New Mexico out of mediocrity. He’ll be bringing an up-tempo scheme looking to open the offense up. He’ll have to do that with a QB who tossed only three TDs (Brad Gunner), a running back who managed only 348 yards (James Wright), and a receiver corps whose top three options combined to catch 93 balls. Still the WRs have experience and should get more involved in the new system.
The offensive line might be the “strength” of the offense. Strength might be a bad word considering the Lobos finished 81st in the country in total O last season, but they will have experience. Center Erick Cook, guard Joshua Taufalele, and tackle Byron Bell all started last season.
Defense — The defense is changing too. No longer will the Lobos play anything other than a 4-3 scheme. The good (and bad maybe) news is that only three starters are back for this unit, so the timing is right to make a philosophical change. Like most new coaches, Locksley wants his defense to become more active. He has some decent athleticism at his disposal in LB Clint McPeek and SS Ian Clark, so there’s hope to finish better than last year’s group. Locksley will be blitzing more often in 2009 as well, which could mean a big season for McPeek.
8.) Wyoming Cowboys
Offense — Remember what Missouri’s offense did over the last two seasons? Well, imagine a Pinto with a fiberglass Ferrari shell — Wyoming’s offense will resemble the Tiger’s in form, but it’s missing a lot under the hood. But new head coach and former Missouri offensive coordinator Dave Christensen will at least run an exciting scheme. First, however, he has to find a quarterback. Karsten Sween and Dax Crum have experience, but it’s experience playing badly. And JUCO transfer Robert Benjamin and true freshman Austyn Carta-Samuels are both full of upside. One of the four will be throwing to an experienced, albeit unproductive, receiving corps.
The biggest loss, however, is the graduation of RB Devin Moore. Moore was one of the more underrated runners in the country last season, and replacing him won’t be easy. Hell, I’ll just say it; it’ll be impossible. There aren’t any backs on the roster who can eclipse Moore’s 1300 rushing yards, and this is moving to a pass-heavy scheme regardless. There won’t be much reason to celebrate after this season, but good things are coming to Wyoming. Christensen was the right hire.
Defense — Since the offense will be adjusting to such a vastly different scheme, the defense will have to pick up all of the slack. And with eight starters back, they might just be up to the task. Two of their defensive linemen, DT John Fletcher and DE Mitch Unrein, were second and honorable mention all-MWC players last season, respectively. They’ll be pushing hard up front to free up returning linebackers Weston Johnson and Gabe Knapton who combined for 170 tackles in 2008.
The secondary has a strong core returning as well. Safety Chris Prosinski picked off three passes last season, and the Gipson brothers have the corner spots nailed down. Tashaun is a bit taller, but Marcell is quicker. Both are better than advertised and could have decent seasons.
9.) San Diego State Aztecs
Offense — Another new head coach. Another team that is still a few year away at least from playing in the postseason. New head man Brady Hoke comes over from leading Ball State to a nearly undefeated season, and he can’t really do much worse than the Aztecs 2008 record of 2-10.
The good news is that this team showed some signs of life late in the season by playing spoiler and ending UNLV’s postseason hopes with a 42-21 upset of the Rebels. Hoke decided to deviate from the recent trend of bringing JUCO players to San Diego, and that means a longer period of losing seasons, but a bigger payoff in the end.
The Aztecs will have to run the ball more effectively in 2009 if they want to keep QB Ryan Lindley from being sacked 21 times again. Lindley has some potential as he threw for 2653 yards and 16 TDs last season, and Hoke worked wonders with Nate Davis back in Muncie. That means RBs Atiyyah Henderson and Brandon Sullivan will have to improve upon their combined 67.6 rushing yards per game from a year ago.
Defense — The stop unit was absolutely awful last season, so to save some embarassment, I won’t list any players’ names here. But they were outscored 146-43 in the fourth quarter in 2008, and the other quarters weren’t much better. They allowed 35 or more points in eight games and gave up 70 to New Mexico, not exactly an offensive powerhouse.
Overall, the D ranked 113th in points per game allowed and total defense. That has to change, but with no linemen in Hoke’s first recruiting class, and with the emphasis he’ll put on bettering the offense, I don’t see it happening anytime soon.
