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The FBS Independents are definitely a diverse group of military power, former powerhouses, and old school jerseys. Last year Western Kentucky sat in the Independents while transitioning to the FBS, but they will be competing in the Sun Belt from now on. The only three teams left just happen to be the three that have come to call Independence home. Army and Navy are both teams with top-10 rushing attacks, and the Navy team has become fairly successful at getting to bowl games lately.
If finishing first meant anything in the independent conference, then Notre Dame would be ecstatic to hear that they will finish first. In fact, Draft Zoo was one of the first websites out there that was high on the Irish to have a big year, and in the potential of Jimmy Clausen to become a great QB prospect in the NFL. There is no doubt that Notre Dame is the best team in the FBS Independents, but the question will be whether or not they play like one of the best teams in the country.
3) Army Black Knights
The Army team will need a lot of help if it wants to turn around from yet another awful season last year. In fact the team hasn’t had a winning record since 1996 when it went 10-2, and haven’t won a bowl in almost 25 years! The Knights (or Cadets to a lot of people) do however have a new coach that fits the program like lamb and tuna fish. Coach Rich Ellerson just got done having a great year in FCS with Cal Poly, and will be bringing his skills to the team. Ellerson has good family ties to West Point, and understands the option attack well.
On Offense:
You would think that a team that has the worst passing game in college would get the rush defended completely during the first two plays. Still however the team was able to average 242 rushing yards per game, good for 9th in the country. The offense will take a much different turn this year however since the team has lost a ton of the triple threat rushing attack, look for the Cadets to pass more. Ellerson is able to return his starting QB to the team and has given him an intriguing new weapon. Returning left tackle Ali “too talli” Villanueva who is 6’10 and 285 pounds will be lining up at wide out in 2009. Just think of the problems that Villanueva can cause in the red zone against smaller players. The overall hope for the season should be to regain and establish the run game while creating a threat threw the air, especially more than the 46 yards a game the team averaged in 2008.
On Defense:
The defense wasn’t awful in 2008, but will have to become a lot more aggressive if they want to make it to the big stage again. The defensive scheming that Ellerson is known for is a very aggressive and high tempo attack against the offense. Ellerson will expect his defense to constantly move and swarm (named after a scheme at Arizona he was part of called “Desert Swarm”) all over the field to confuse and violently attack the offense. Army returns seven on defense including rushing end Josh McNary who might be able to get a few draft looks if the U.S. Military wasn’t STUPID about their athletic player’s services. Overall however, the Army Alumni should expect ok things for the time being, and it will take definite time to get the team going.
2) Navy Midshipmen
The Army squad had the 9th best rush attack in the country in 2008, but the Navy squad had the best. Oh, and the Navy team had about 20 more yards per game throwing, good for second to last. But it’s the +29 differential in turnovers between the two schools that gives the Midshipmen the nod.
On Offense:
The team returns backup QB Ricky Dobbs to the team for his first bit of starting QB work for the team. Dobbs is also the best statistical returner at rushing too as he returns 500 yards and 8 TD’s to the team. Dobbs is a smart QB that will lead the triple option to more good success this year. He will be given the task to transform Mario Washington into a catching star, but the main strength of the team will be in the continued trio of backs on the team. If the team can gain the rushing title in college yet again then look for the offense to look damn good once again.
On Defense:
The defense took major steps in 2008 towards becoming a good college defense. In fact the team’s scoring defense went from 36.4 in 2007 to 22.0 in 2008. That was an improvement of almost 70/119 rankings. The rushing defense was solid last year as it was able to keep the team in the top 50 in rushing yards. The passing defense wasn’t far behind at 64th. Overall the team returns seven on defense, including the entire line and majority of the LB’s. Stud LB (another player that would be a good pro prospect) Ross Pospisil returns a ton to the defense including 106 tackles, two picks, and three forced fumbles. Pospisil is an amazing LB who is the obvious captain of the defense, and rover Wyatt Middleton is good in the backfield.
1. Notre Dame Fighting Irish
No surprises here. A few months ago I took the Irish in my early predictions to go to a BCS bowl this year for three big reasons. The Irish have one of the easiest schedules out there, especially since they don’t have a conference schedule. They face three (should be) easy games against Big 10 teams, and face possibly the three worst teams in the Pac 10. Other than USC, the rest of the games should be winnable for the team. The second reason they might get into a BCS bowl is their popularity and money. Ohio State jumped Boise State for this very reason last year and will have the potential to get into a BCS game with 2-3 losses. And finally is QB Jimmy Clausen who I expect will become the frontrunner 1st QB taken in the 2011 draft should he stay.
On Offense:
As noted above, this will be a huge year for Notre Dame, but Jimmy Clausen must step up. Clausen is still hated by most people because of his true freshman season where the Irish line gave up 58 sacks. Clausen had a much better season in 2008 and is looking primed for a pro-caliber year in 2009. It also helps the offense and Clausen when the team returns all but one starter to the team. If the line can gel like the talent says it can, look for a huge year in South Bend. The line is just the first step of the process however as the Irish have had the worst two rushing years ever… in a row! If a RB can step up and if Clausen can do the things with the talent around him (especially in RT Sam Young, TE Kyle Rudolph and WR Golden Tate), then look for a huge year.
On Defense:
The defense which ranked around 45th in every statistical category last year returns only 5 starters to the team; however most of the pieces they have will be ready to improve and strike. Former LB Harrison Smith will fall back to the FS that was formally held by Bruton Smith. The team will have a ton of young and experienced talent in the rest of the backfield, while the LB positions will be stacked. Fleming and Smith look primed to take over at Sam and Will while a battle between senior Toryan Smith and freshman Manti Te’o at the Mike spot. If the defense has a weakness, it is that it must replace half of the line, and to gain stability at the position.
Either way look for the Irish to surprise a lot of people in 2009. In recent times they have seemed to underachieve when they are ranked high by the media. This year the media seems to think that Clausen is going to lose his job, and that the team is still in shambles. So look for a huge year in South Bend, and potentially a BCS bid in their sights. I myself have predicted that they will face Ohio State in the Rose Bowl after USC beats them both and doesn’t have to face either team again at home. It’s a bold prediction, and I see it coming true in my own little sick world.
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