Here we are again, Penn State. At least this time you don't have to hang out in the pink locker rooms at Kinnick. Weird.
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Week four is here and it is once again time to discuss which five games you should be watching this weekend. This week has more and more great matchups being played, and more great conference games are starting to show up this week! Like last week we will try to give you five good games that don’t conflict with each other, and that will keep you watching all weekend.
The key problem that happens this week is that most of the great games are starting at 3:30 EST. The Thursday game is not as good as the last few weeks, and unfortunately this might tarnish what could be the best game of the week in Miami v Georgia Tech. Even if it is the best game ever it runs the risk of overlapping both the Cal v Oregon and the TCU v Clemson game. Some people might not even see the Miami game because of their broadcast locations. And if you are wondering why the team rankings might be different to you it is because we are using the Draft Zoo Expert’s Pole.
5) No. 5 California at Oregon
Time: 3:30 PM (EST) Saturday 9/26
Spread: California by 3.5
The key to victory for the Ducks is to play like they did last week, and like Minnesota played last week. Last week the Oregon team finally clicked against Utah, and they need to realize and run with their strengths. The team has the ability to run the ball, and LaMichael James showed that last week, but everyone knew that. The team has a QB in Jeremiah Masoli that can run, but we all knew that. The team must take a few chances and throw the ball, because the 125 yards a game and 45% completion won’t work against Cal. The team must also look at what Minnesota did well, and they must realize that Cal is beatable. The must stop the inside rush well, but they have to watch out for the disgustingly good rush game (led by Jahvid Best) on the outside. If they stop any big plays like Minnesota did in most of the game, they will win.
The key to victory for the Bears is stop the Oregon rush and to play smart. In reality that is my way of saying hand the ball off to Jahvid Best on every play and let him do his thing. Jahvid had a bad day in yardage against Minnesota only rushing for a 5.7 average, but I’m pretty sure his 5 TDs will do. The problem is that Oregon knows about Jahvid Best, and they will have him covered pretty well. The team must realize that Chip Kelly is not a passing coach, and he will call rush plays all day long at the Zoo. They must use their Best (pun definitely intended) weapons to their advantage, and must play a much cleaner game than they did at Minnesota.
4) No. 16 Texas Christian at Clemson
Time: 3:30 PM (EST) Saturday 9/26
Spread: Clemson by 1.5
The key to victory for the Horned Frogs is to stop Spiller and the rest of Clemson’s offense, while creating some of their own. The Horned Frogs have allowed nearly 200 yards per game of total offense, and only 35 total points allowed. Clemson however will have a much better offense than Virginia and Texas State did, and they must stop C.J. Spiller and the rest of the Tigers offense. The defense is quietly one of the best in the nation, and 35 points allowed on defense is a small surprise. The offense has gelled well with Andy Dalton so far this season and he has thrown a 75% rate and almost 200 yards a game. The team also is able to pack the 15th best rush game so far, and they have used it as the backbone to which they have crushed their opponents so far.
The key to victory for the Tigers is to show the Horned Frogs that they are not Virginia. The Horned Frogs beat the Cavaliers in the first game by 16 points, and Clemson is at least 16 points better than Virginia who lost to FCS team William & Mary. Clemson has the best offense and the best defense that TCU will have faced this year, and there is no doubt that they must make TCU step up this week. Da’Quan Bowers must create a pass rush to create some pressure, and Spiller must step up on offense and show how good he can be.
3) No. 20 North Carolina at Georgia Tech
Time: 12:00 (EST) Thursday 9/26
Spread: Georgia Tech by 3.5
The key to victory for the Tar Heels is to protect T.J. Yates and to stop the GT rush. Last week GT had to throw the ball against a Miami squad that destroyed them, and there is a big reason that they lost. If the defense can stop Dwyer, Inc. and force the Yellow Jackets to throw the ball on offense, they could become huge victors. It should be remembered that UNC has one of the most experienced defenses in college, including a returning nine members on defense. The offense has looked good so far and T.J. Yates has looked awesome in throwing for nearly 200 yards per game at nearly an 80% completion rate. If the line can give Yates the time to make big plays, and if Yates is smart enough to watch out for the GT Morgan’s (Morgan Burnett and Derrick Morgan), then the Tar Heels could vault their way up to ACC glory.
The key to victory for the Yellow Jackets is to disrupt T.J. Yates and to re-establish the run game. Georgia Tech played so bad last week against Miami that they actually got more passing yards than rushing yards. If you can name all of the receivers that caught a ball for GT last week, then you might be a genius. OR you might know that only one receiver (Demaryius Thomas) caught all six of the GT balls for 133 yards. The Jackets can’t pass consistently, and they must re-establish the run game against UNC. They must also realize that their two best defensive talents on the field have the name Morgan, and they must realize that they are the keys to defensive victory. If Derrick Morgan can pressure and attack Yates, and if Morgan Burnett can disrupt the UNC pass, then this game should be a cake walk.
2) No. 9 Miami at No. 13 Virginia Tech
Time: 3:30 (EST) Saturday 9/26
Spread: Pick
The key to victory for the Hokies is to eliminate Jacory Harris. Harris is the offense, and he has thrown for 328 yards per game at 70% against two good teams thus far in the season. Harris must get pressured, and he must make mistakes. The Hokies pack one of the best DL units in football, and they also pack one of the best secondaries. They must pressure Harris and they must make some big plays if they don’t want to see the fate that GT and FSU have already endured. If they can slow or stop the progress that Harris is making on the field, then the run game will be forced to do the work. Their stats would say that it wouldn’t be a problem, but it’s hard to stop their rush game when the pass game has been so good.
The key to victory for the Hurricanes is to not play cocky, and to also blast the Hokies in the face. Jacory Harris, the pass game, the run game and the entire defense have evolved into something great down in Miami, but they should not be listening to the media hyping them up as a top-5 team. The team and the coaching staff had better not overlook this game for Oklahoma, and they had better realize that they are going against a team that almost beat Alabama, and that just beat Nebraska. FSU has struggled in all but one game this season, and GT almost gave up a game to Clemson, but Virginia Tech has played much better than both of those squads. They can’t go into the game feeling like they are favored, and they had better go into that game knowing that they will come out with a win. They need to attack violently and with great balance against the team, and they had better not let Tyrod Taylor throw the ball like Nebraska did.
1. Iowa at No. 4 Penn State
Time: 8:00 (EST) Saturday 9/26
Spread: Penn State by 10
This might not actually be the best game of the week, and Iowa might absolutely get destroyed by the Penn State talent, but history would like to say otherwise. Iowa has absolutely owned Penn State in the Ferentz era, and other than a 27-7 win two years ago they team hasn’t won in nearly 10 years. The game also gets the benefit of being the only great night game of the week, and Iowa comes into the game underrated.
The key to victory for the Hawkeyes is to keep it close and to watch their backs. Iowa has definitely kept it close in recent years, including a 24-23 last second win last season over the top ranked N-Lions. 2004’s game had Iowa score every single point (two purpose safeties) in the game with a 6-4 victory at Penn State. Talent wise Iowa’s offense is no match for PSU’s defense, and Iowa’s defense should be able to hold up but not destroy PSU’s offense, but that doesn’t matter. Iowa has a chip on their shoulders, and no matter how good Penn State is, they always have a chance in this rivalry. They had better watch out though because Penn State will be seeking revenge for last season’s win.
The key to victory for the Nittany Lions is to revenge last year and to break the Hawkeye soul. The team must remember that last year they went into Iowa City as the best team in the country and lost by a FG in the last second. The must then take this anger, and revenge it fully. Iowa has a ton of talent back from that 2008 team, but they don’t have their two best RBs, their top TE, their top WR, or their top OT in Bryan Bulaga (how nobody knows that he has been missing games lately for an ailment that the Hawks won’t disclose baffles me). The team has also lost the pass rushing capabilities from last year, however they have looked ok. It’s as simple as that for the Joe Pa-men, as they must not let Iowa escape the Valley Happy at all, and they must take their greater group of talent and not get out coached or out matched again this year.
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