Mike’s 2010 NFL Mock Draft (1/12/10)

1/12/10

Editor’s Note: Now that all of the underclassmen are starting to declare, and a few big names are headed back to school, Mike has updated his mock to include all of the latest pre-millionaires.

The NFL Draft is one of the greatest, most unpredictable, speculative events in sports. Everybody and their grandma is putting out a mock these days, and the only thing we are finding out is that even the pros aren’t even close to right. Very few people knew that Cleveland would trade back to the Jet’s pick in the 2009 draft for a pile of Eric Mangini’s former Jets players. While it was easy to predict that Al Davis was going to draft the speedy wide receiver from Maryland, most people lived in doubt.

While I will be the first person to say my picks aren’t perfect, I will also be the first to say that nobodies are. Over the course of the next few months, I will try to look back into the recent past of the draft to see if I can debunk some of the hidden trends in drafting.

1.) STL — Jimmy Clausen, QB, Notre Dame

The Rams would be insane to not take Clausen with this pick. Clausen has great touch, a strong arm, and has continued to improve drastically throughout his college career. In my mock on September 17th I was one of the (if not the) first people to denote Clausen as the top QB prospect, and he has since then risen to the near consensus best. Clausen wasn’t able to take Notre Dame to that special BCS place, but he kept the Irish in every game this season. It seems like so many people hate Clausen and site his easy schedule as a reason to bust, but he faced eight bowl caliber teams this season and threw 20 TDs to just 2 picks against them. He cannot be blamed for his team’s defense and inability to run the ball. Clausen is capable of getting Drew Brees production, but he also has the things that we love about Aaron Rodgers.

Some will argue that the Rams must take the “more elite” prospects like Ndamukong Suh or Eric Berry, but the Rams must take a QB like Clausen to lead the way. There is so much more upside in taking the top QB and a 2nd round DT like Brian Price than there is walking out of the draft with Ndamukong Suh and Tony Pike if they want to be a contender any time soon

2.) DET — Ndamukong Suh, DT, Nebraska

I’ll let you in on a little bit of a secret about Jim Schwartz’s draft history when he was at Tennessee. From 1999-2008, the Titans picked ten defensive players out of the 17 they had in the first two rounds and only one OL (in the 2nd). It is no wonder why Detroit hired him, because he brought his zero OL philosophy to the team. I will be the first person to say that Detroit needs a LT, but they ignore the position on a yearly basis, and only draft a “top” tackle the year before they draft a QB early. Luckily for the Lions Suh is literally a house of spears that can destroy any OL.

3.) TB — Gerald McCoy, DT, Oklahoma

The Bucs realistically could go for a LT here because Donald Penn is the most overrated LT in football and had 8 penalties and 8 sacks this last season. The Bucs however have a huge need at DT and Gerald McCoy might be the most complete one to come out of the draft in a while. McCoy doesn’t have the sex appeal that Ndamukong Suh has but he might be considered a more prototypical DT to some. Eric Berry could go here but the Bucs need a help on both lines before they take a player with less positional value.

4.) WAS — Sam Bradford, QB, Oklahoma

The Redskins looked for a way to get Mark Sanchez a year ago and there is a good chance that they would have been ecstatic with Sam Bradford in last year’s draft. Bradford might have some injury concerns, but he is going to a team that can transition him to the pros well with Jason Campbell on the roster. Bradford is also a huge name of a player so he will be welcomed into the Redskins pack with the rest of them.

5.) KC — Terrence Cody, NT, Alabama

The Chiefs have theoretically drafted well with their positional need in the 1st round the last few years, but unfortunately they still need help on both lines. The OL is a mess right now, but the Chiefs are 30th against the rush, and second worst in sacks. While I don’t like Terrence Cody for the same exact reasons that I didn’t like Andre Smith from Alabama, nose tackles might be the hardest position to find right now, and the Chiefs will love his potential. We will see how this pick will develop, but with two picks in the second round there will be plenty of great LT’s and safeties to grab.

6.) SEA — Eric Berry, S, Tennessee

If a top QB hits this spot then you can pretty much guarantee that the Hawks will pick him up. But because Bradford and Clausen are gone the Seahawks grab up Berry faster than they did Aaron Curry last year, and he would be a great pick if they didn’t have so many other needs with a higher positional value. The Hawks must look for a future QB, help on the DL and a rejuvenated OL early in this draft but Berry gets the nod for now.

7.) CLE — Dez Bryant, WR, Oklahoma State

The Browns won four straight games to close the season but it really screwed them out of a good draft spot. If either QB, Suh or Berry fall here they should be instantly gone, but unfortunately they have to keep searching for players. Rolando McClain or Joe Haden could go here but the team is going to have the worst receiver core in football if Josh Cribbs leaves. Bryant is a sleeper top-8 pick because he actually has the potential to gain stock from his suspension if he focused on route running and tweaking his 40-time. We all already know what he can do, and if he goes into the combine in better shape than he was in college then teams will drool over him.

8.) OAK — Bruce Campbell, OT, Maryland

Remember last year when Evil Al took speed over common knowledge early? Well he does it again by taking Bruce Campbell as the first OT taken. In reality Bruce Campbell has some injury concerns that should take him out of the top-10 of the draft, but luckily for Campbell (if you want to call it lucky) Al Davis has a soft spot in his heart for injuries. Davis also loves athletic players and the 6’7, 310 pound workout warrior is no exception.

9.) BUF — Russell Okung, OT, Oklahoma State

The Bills likely won’t be chipping in to buy a billboard for Okung, but if he actually falls this far they should be beyond excited at their steal. A new coach will likely want “his guy” under center, and I wouldn’t be shocked to see a ticket seller like Tebow go here, but the Bills can only consider a QB here if one of the two top guys fall. I actually could see a free agent coming in (Chad Pennington seems like a viable idea) to play while a fresh face sits and learns for a season or two.

10.) DEN (from CHI) — Rolando McClain, ILB, Alabama

The Broncos are at an interesting place here because this is the extra pick for trading Cutler a year ago. Kyle Orton has fallen apart just a little bit lately, but he is still the best QB the Broncos have had for awhile (plus who doesn’t love a neck beard?). The only feasible position the Broncos would take here would be to reach on a rush linebacker, an inside linebacker or a DE. Unfortunately there isn’t a 3-4 DE worthy of the 10th pick here, and the team took Robert Ayers last year, so a slight reach on Rolando McClain is taken here.

11.) JAX — Derrick Morgan, DE, Georgia Tech

Everyone has been mocking Tebow to the Jags, and if they want to scrap a good QB in David Garrard to sell tickets then they might doom themselves for another season. But the Jags had only 14 sacks this season (11 less than any other team) and they need a ton of help on defense. Quentin Groves had zero sacks for the season and hasn’t looked like the player that they drafted a few years ago. Don’t be surprised to see any defensive player (especially from the state of Florida or the SEC) taken here, but Morgan gets the nod for now. Morgan looked a little bit weak against Bryan Bulaga in the Orange Bowl, but he had a good enough game to be a legit top-16 pick.

12.) MIA — Damian Williams, WR, USC

Damian Williams doesn’t impress me as much as he does for most people but there is no doubting his potential at receiver, especially with his elite route running skills. The Dolphins need a NT and should get some youth at rush linebacker (although Jason Taylor and Joey Porter were awesome this year), but the clear need for the team early is receiver.

13.) SF — Joe Haden, CB, Florida

The 49ers are a team on the rise and they will benefit by taking the best CB in the draft. CB might not be the biggest need but he is an upgrade over Shawntae Spencer, and he will be a great pickup at 13th. The team may look for a LE, a 3-4 MLB, a QB or youth on the OL, but the 49ers have another pick at 17th.

14.) SEA (from DEN) — C.J. Spiller, RB, Clemson

The team gobbled up Eric Berry with the 6th pick and they must come out of the 2011 with one or even two solid RBs. Spiller has the potential to break for huge yards at any time, and he is the change of pace back that might be able to spark an offense that struggles with consistency. Pete Carroll unfortunately won’t likely be able to get a QB this late in the 1st round without taking a “risk” on a player like Tim Tebow or Colt McCoy, but I would put OT Charles Brown on the short list of picks here.

15.) NYG — Earl Thomas, S, Texas

The Giants defense really struggled this season and they finished 30th in the league in scoring defense. Any side of the defense might get an upgrade, but the safety position has been lacking for a while. Taylor Mays has gotten a lot of slack this season but he will regain that draft stock when he easily runs the fastest 40-time for his size. So why is Thomas going before Mays? It is because the Giants need a ball hawk and a game changer and Mays just isn’t that player.

16.) SF (from CAR) — Bryan Bulaga, OT, Iowa

Barry Sims is actually coming off the best year of his career but he will turn 36 this season and the 49ers could use a major upgrade at RT. Bulaga is a great run-blocking OT who should be able to switch over to LT with ease when needed to. Bulaga is coming off a huge game against Derrick Morgan and there is no doubt that he is worthy of being one of the top-3 tackles taken.

17.) TEN — Carlos Dunlap, DE, Florida

The Titans need to get a lot of youth and talent on defense out of this draft, and it will likely start with the DL or the DB. I think that a corner like Ras-I Dowling or Donovan Warren might get the nod with the pick but 17th might be a slight reach for their upside and talent. Carlos Dunlap might be a little bit more Super Luigi than he is Super Mario, and he might be a risk at 17th, but he will have a huge combine and somebody will be leaping to grab him early.

18.) PIT — Charles Brown, OT, USC

The Steelers must come out of this draft with a ton of depth on their OL, and they must find a backup for Troy Polamlu. This is a huge “hope” of a pick here because the Steelers haven’t taken an offensive tackle in the first two rounds since the year 2000, but they must find a way to help Big Ben before he becomes a Broken Ben. Charles Brown is my second favorite OT in this draft, but he must properly gain about 15-pounds of good muscle if he wants to come close to being a top-50 pick.

19.) HOU — Taylor Mays, S, USC

The Texans started the season with a lot of problems on the DL, but they really did start to come through at the end. If Carlos Dunlap is at this pick I wouldn’t be shocked to see him get taken, but for the 2010 draft they must get a solid safety. Taylor Mays is an impact player that will add aggression and fear into the defense. He also has the potential to be one of the best safeties in the league if he can get a better nose for the ball.

20.) ATL — Greg Hardy, DE, Ole Miss

I am not a huge fan of trades in mock drafts, but there is a good chance that if Bruce Carter or Travis Lewis don’t declare I could see the Falcons trade back about 5-10 picks to get better value on a OLB like Sean Weatherspoon. Since it can’t go as easily as that in mocks though, I see the Falcons focusing on a left end somewhere in the draft. Jamaal Anderson hasn’t come close to what he should have been, and they must find someone who can get more than 3 sacks and 30 tackles a year as a starter.

21.) CIN — Jermaine Gresham, TE, Oklahoma

J.P. Foschi isn’t quite lighting the world on fire for the Bengals, and the receiving core was spotty this season. Gresham instantly adds a dimension that a growing team like the Bengals needs and Carson Palmer get’s a hopefully reliable receiver to the squad. The Bengals must find a bunch of reliable weapons to take some the pressure off of Ocho.

22.) NE — Jerry Hughes, DE/LB, TCU

If Arthur Jones hadn’t gotten hurt this season and was still available here then I would have easily have put him here, but even with his injury the Patriots must get a young rush linebacker like Jerry Hughes to play with.

23.) GB — Anthony Davis, OT, Rutgers

I have no idea how Aaron Rodgers is still standing after the regular season and there is no doubt that the Green Bay Packers must take a chance on a tackle here. When I see the very athletic Anthony Davis play I just don’t think he will be much more than a serviceable LT at the next level, but he is the best LT available at 22.

24.) PHI — Brian Price, DT, UCLA

I have seen a lot of people mock a DE to the Eagles this year and I just don’t know that it is a huge need. Juqua Parker had 8 sacks in the regular season while Trent Cole had 12, but the DT core just couldn’t produce as much as their DE counterparts. Brian Price had a great season for UCLA and will add a ton of power and depth for the Eagles core.

25.) BAL — Brandon LaFell, WR, LSU

The Ravens need to get a ton of tools in their receiver core if they want to walk out of the draft winners. The team needs to get a speedy player like LaFell or Golden Tate to give Joe Flacco the deep target that he deserves. LaFell does get the nod here because of his size, possession skills, and his ability to produce in an offense like LSU’s.

26.) ARI — Tim Tebow, QB, Florida

Rumors just came out that Kurt Warner will retire when the season is over, and if this is true the QB position easily become the biggest need on the team. Matt “Beer Pong” Leinart is not going to be a start QB and the Cards must act to get a QB early. Tim Tebow might be a project but there aren’t many good QBs in this draft since Ryan Mallett and Jake Locker chose to go to school for another year.

27.) NYJ — Donovan Warren, CB, Michigan

Remember back in the day (2006) when Lito Sheppard was a relevant and elite corner in the league? Well those days are over because he has struggled the last two seasons and isn’t even a good CB2 at this point. Warren is a phenomenal talent that hopefully will solidify the CB position on the team. If a great 3-4 end or rush linebacker pops up here then they must hop on him, but I doubt they reach that high at 21.

28.) DAL — Morgan Burnett, S, Georgia Tech

Jerry Jones is essentially a less insane version of Al Davis with a cowboy hat and spurred boots. Jones loves his men big, tall, fast and southern, and a perfect fit is Morgan Burnett who also benefits by filling a need. Burnett is a pure ballhawking safety that is comparable some ways to Eric Berry.

29.) SD — Dan Williams, NT, Tennessee

The Chargers are a unique team in that they could use a ton of upgrades throughout the team and yet they are able to beat anyone. The Chargers could use a solid OT, an extra young RB, and pieces all over defense, including a major upgrade at nose tackle. Dan Williams is moving up draft boards because most draftniks wouldn’t want to touch Terrence Cody, but when it is all said and done I think Cody will go much sooner than Williams.

30.) MIN — Jared Odrick, DT, Penn State

A lot of people have mocked a QB to the Vikings as of late, and it isn’t out of the question but not likely in my opinion. The team could use some major youth at DT and Jared Odrick is a serious talent, but he has some character issues on his résumé. The Vikings took a chance on Percy Harvin and they take a chance on Odrick here.

31.) IND — Jason Pierre-Paul, DE, South Florida

If the one of the top four safeties had fallen this far than I would hope that the Colts would have snatched him up, because the team clearly falls off when Bob Sanders gets hurt for half of every season. The Colts however are able to take a huge risk on some DL depth, and if JPP delivers anything close to his hype the Colts will get another steal.

32.) NO — Sean Weatherspoon, OLB, Missouri

The Saints have a luxury pick this late in the 1st round and luckily for them they are able to use it on a player of need. Sean Weatherspoon is a player that could be taken 10th overall or 40th depending on a team’s needs. He will really benefit if Travis Lewis and Bruce Carter go back to school.

ROUND 2

33.) STL — Golden Tate, WR, Notre Dame

The Rams have a ton of needs and one of them is to get a great downfield receiver that can play well with Clausen.

34.) DET — Demaryius Thomas, WR, Georgia Tech

The Lions need a LT but ignore it again to take a home run swing on a wide receiver opposite of Megatron. Thomas isn’t a 2nd round prospect but was the entire GT passing game and the Lions have loved their success on GT receivers lately.

35.) TB — Greg Romeus, DE, Pittsburgh

The Bucs must look at an OT early in the draft but they must also replace the loss of Gaines Adams

36.) KC — Jason Fox, OT, Miami

Jason Fox played a huge part of the success for Miami this season, and he hopefully does the same for the Chiefs.

37.) WAS — Jahvid Best, RB, Cal

The Skins now have their QB of the future and they must find as many tools for the offense that they can.

38.) CLE — Brandon Spikes, MLB, Florida

The Browns must find a game changing linebacker to create more production, and Brandon Spikes is capable of that.

39.) OAK — Everson Griffen, DE, USC

I wouldn’t be shocked to see Griffen go to the Raiders in the 1st so in the 2nd is an Al Davis steal.

40.) SEA — Tony Pike, QB, Cincinnati

There isn’t really a great tackle here and the team is going to have enough to administration to warrant a QB of the future.

41.) BUF — Colt McCoy, QB, Texas

I’m not a fan of McCoy but he is a big name player and somebody will take a chance on him early. This pick will likely change as time goes by but the Bills need a QB in this draft.

42.) TB (from CHI) — Arrelious Benn, WR, Illinois

Benn had a bad year on a bad team but has too much potential to not be taken early.

43.) MIA — Von Miller, DE/LB, Texas A&M

This is a depth and luxury pick. Rush Linebackers have been iffy takes over the last few years so the Dolphins must look to find a developmental one.

44.) NE (from JAX) — Aaron Hernandez, TE, Florida

The Patriots will likely trade this pick but in this mock they take a very good Hernandez at TE.

45.) DEN — Arthur Jones, DE/DT, Syracuse

Arthur Jones is a disruptive force who will hopefully help the Broncos stop some the run better.

46.) NYG — Trevard Lindley, CB, Kentucky

Lindley is a smart player who had an off season. A decent combine though could vault him back into the first though.

47.) CAR — Eric Decker, WR, Minnesota

Whoever starts at QB next year is going to need some legit talent to throw to, and Decker is a very underrated player.

48.) NE (from TEN) — Javier Arenas, CB, Alabama

The Patriots need to get some good young talent in the backfield and Arenas is a good candidate for that position.

49.) SF — Nate Allen, S, USF

The 49ers are a few tools away from truly competing again and a safety like Nate Allen will help them get to the next level.

50.) HOU — Jeremy Beal, DE, Oklahoma

The Texans could use another name on their young DL and Jeremy Beal had a big enough season to get a 2nd round nod here.

51.) KC (from ATL) — Sergio Kindle, DE/LB, Texas

Kansas City must gain a pass rushing unit from this draft, and Sergio Kindle might just be the guy to set them over the top.

52.) PIT — Mike Iupati, OG, Idaho

I already took a major reach against history in giving the Steelers a 1st round OT, so I might as well go with another O-Linemen in Mike Iupati.

53.) CIN — Marshawn Gilyard, WR/KR, Cincinnati

The Bengals could use another solid receiver, and Gilyard helps them in the return game as well.

54.) NE — Corey Wootton, DE/DT, Northwestern

The Patriots need a DE in this draft to replace Richard Seymour and Corey WooWoo could end up being the best 3-4 end out there.

55.) GB — Kyle Calloway, OT, Iowa

Aaron Rodgers gets a second OT to save him in my mock. Kyle Calloway has done a good job of playing either side of the tackle position at Iowa, and might turn out to be better than Bryan Bulaga.

56.) PHI — Daryl Washington, LB, TCU

The Eagles could use some good depth at the LB position and Washington is one of the better ones in the draft.

57.) BAL — Brandon Ghee, CB, Wake Forest

The Ravens have a decent amount of talent at the position, but an insurance plan is a huge need for them. Kyle Wilson also is able to double as an awesome returner.

58.) ARI — Kris O’Dowd, OC, USC

More Medicare for Kurt Warner here with a position that they have needed to upgrade for awhile. If Warner really does retire this might have to be a reach for a QB or traded for a QB.

59.) NYJ — Tyson Alualu, DE/DT, Cal

The Jets have a solid defense but they have a ton of glaring holes including a need at DE.

60.) DAL — Kyle Wilson, CB, Boise State

The Cowboys could use some more depth in the backfield and Kyle Wilson is a huge playmaker who doubles as an amazing return specialist.

61.) SD — Trent Williams, OT, Oklahoma

The Chargers could use a few tools in the RB/WR core but they must also focus on the OT position in the draft. Williams is a great RT and I think his stock will fall because he doesn’t have much LT potential at the next level.

62.) MIN — Brandon Graham, DE, Michigan

This pick is a little bit of an insurance policy pick for Ray Edwards who has been able to produce above average numbers for the last few years on a defensive line that has the Williams Wall and Jared Allen on it.

63.) IND — Dominique Franks, CB, Oklahoma

The Colts use this pick as a luxury to add an extra jersey to help in their backfield.

64.) NO — Perrish Cox, CB, Oklahoma State

The Saints could use some extra depth at CB and Perrish Cox could pan out to be a huge steal.