Professor Mike’s Five Lessons, Key Stats, and the Heisman Barometer

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1. Iowa Hawkeyes: Filet or Bologna?

The short answer might be that the Hawks would be under the filet of fish department, or maybe under the 100-dollar hamburger department. The Hawks are 8-0 for the first time ever, and Kirk Ferentz got his first ever win at Michigan State this weekend in a last second TD score by QB Ricky Stanzi & Marvin McNutt. But the eight wins have not come at an pace and as you will see in the “Stats of the Week” section below, the Hawks have won at a margin of only 8.9 points, and the Hawks have only won two games by more than 10 points, while actually wining by 3 or less points four total times.

So the question of the week is whether the Hawks have barely escaped losses that they should have gotten, or have they gained that much more experience in every single game this season. The team has a great defense that is allowing only 15-points a game this season, and the Hawks have only allowed two 20+ point games this season! The team doesn’t get a whole lot of recognition for their defense because of the lack of stars, but all three sides of the defense are capable of stopping any team. The offense season to be hit or miss, and while QB Ricky Stanzi has shown flashes of brilliance, he has also shown us that he is not among the college elite for a reason.

But the kicker of the entire story is that the Hawkeyes might be the most feared team that could truly compete against one of the two (or three) SEC elite teams that could be in the championship game. The Hawks play a smash mouth SEC sort of defense and they can keep up with any offense. They have fared very well against SEC teams under coach Ferentz in bowl games, including wins over South Carolina (‘08), LSU (’04) , and Florida (‘03), as well as two straight close, controversial bowl losses against Florida (’05) and Texas (’06). The Hawks can compete against any offense, and they always find a way to stay in a game. The team is often being under looked and listed as an underdog against their opponents because they don’t have many pure stars, but that itself might be their greatest benefit. When game planning it is easy to have a plan to stop Colt McCoy, or expose the USC pass defense, etc. but the Hawks can and will get you from anywhere.

2. Next weekend will be the Pac-10 Championship

If you look at the Pac-10 standings right now you will see that the only undefeated conference record is Oregon. USC and Arizona have only one loss in conference this season, and Arizona’s odds are slim to pull off the glory. It is possible that Arizona can win the conference, but with games at Cal, USC and AZ State, plus a game at home at Oregon it is truly unlikely that the Wildcats will take the conference. But this next weekend, the Trojans will be traveling on Halloween night to the Autzen Zoo to play the likely Pac-10 conference championship game.

Oregon has been getting better and better as each week goes by, and the Trojans offense is clicking at an amazing rate right now. Both defenses are getting things done, and the Trojans are leading the country in sacks, while the Ducks are no pushover in their own right. This game looks to already be the game of the week, and there is no doubt that there will be more coverage later on in the “5 Games to Watch” segment.

3. The College Referees Need to go Back to School

This is a very sensitive and controversial subject in football right now, but there are certain referees that need to get disciplined, trained better, or plain out speared in the head by Taylor Mays for some of the dumb, inappropriate, poor timed, and team swayed calls that have gone on this season. I am usually the first person to defend the Zebras, as long as they keep the calling unbiased, but only so much can be had. One crew was suspended this week for a couple of dumb calls that would likely have changed the Arkansas v Florida game a few weeks ago. The Iowa, Oregon, Miami and South Carolina games all had random potentially game changing play calls that were either completely ridiculous, or that were thrown because the ref liked how pretty the yellow flag looked on the grass.

But the worst call of the week would go to the officials in the Oregon State v USC game. James Rodgers caught a ball in the end zone for the Beavers, and as he was taking a knee in the process was speared in the head by Taylor Mays, who committed a late hit, facemask, hands to the face, and above the head personal foul (that’s four different major flags) at the same time, and in the process took the Rodger’s helmet with him. The Zebra’s didn’t call a foul, and the list of penalties were so obvious in the close game that the T.V. announcers destroyed the call.

4. Why the BCS is BS

The BCS ranking system, just like pretty much any ranking system in college football needs to be figured out, and fast if we aren’t going to change the championship game until a playoff system. USC has lost a game this year, and I don’t care how sexy they looked against San Jose State, they DO NOT deserve to be ranked 4th in the BCS, let alone any number higher than an unbeaten team. Just because Florida and Alabama have had a few struggles does not even come close to validating Texas as a top-2 team. Texas has beaten only two teams that are worthy of a top-25 ranking, and maybe no other team worthy of a top-50 rank right now. The team struggled against Wyoming and Colorado in the first half, and a 3-loss Oklahoma team almost had them. They DO NOT deserve to be ranked inside of the top-2, and I don’t even think they are worthy of a top-3 (aka the money spot) at this point.

And finally, there is no reason that if there are 6 undefeated teams (either Florida or Bama have to lose one because they have the non-benefit of a conference championship game) in college at the end of the regular season that only two teams will fight for a championship. It is also not fair that we all know that either TCU or Boise State could be scummed out of the BCS because of a sexier team. And if a team like TCU finishes undefeated with wins against Virginia, Clemson, BYU (beat Oklahoma), and Utah, the Horned Frogs (also the last team to beat Boise State) deserve to be in the championship conversation.

5. Boise State’s Path is Not Already Paved

Ever since the first week of college when Boise State destroyed Oregon more than the score says, T.V. analysts have gone out to say that Boise State’s season was over because they will go 12-0 on their way to a BCS bid. But Boise State’s road is nowhere close to paved, because while the team has beaten Fresno State and Tulsa, they still have three tough games left, including a game against Nevada that could decide their fate. L.A. Tech is no pushover team, and they will match up pretty well against the Broncos, and there is something going on with the Idaho Vandals that the interstate rivals should fear. But the biggest game of the season continues to be the game at home on November 27th against Nevada. Nevada is finally starting to ignite under their talent led by one of the best dual threat QBs in the country in Colin Kaepernick. Kaepernick’s first career game was against Boise State three years ago when the Wolf pack lost in the 4th OT on a failed 2-point conversion in one of college’s highest scoring games ever. Last year Nevada lost by only a TD in yet another high scoring team and in about a month there is no doubt that Nevada will have a very legitimate shot to ruin Boise State’s chances of a perfect season.

STATS OF THE WEEK

1. MiQuale Lewis & Cory Sykes, RB’s, Ball State

The Ball State Cardinals went 12-0 in the regular season last season before losing in the MAC championship, and then also in the GMAC Bowl. Those two losses hurt Ball State’s perfect regular season last year, but nobody thought that they would start the 2009 season by losing another 7 straight. Until Saturday when the Cardinals finally got their first win of the season against Eastern Michigan. But why do the two running backs for the Cardinals get one of the “Stat of the Week” nominations? It’s because in the win against Eastern Michigan Lewis had a gigantic 301 yards and a score while Sykes had 203 yards for three scores. That is a combined 504 yards and four touchdowns for those two players in a game where the rest of the team combined for negative 40 yards! The Cardinals had one yard passing, and the two leading rushers had 503 yards. Going into the game Lewis had 378 yards for the season, while Sykes had 104.

2. Iowa State

If you didn’t hear about Iowa State this weekend, you likely didn’t know that they got Nebraska to give up eight turnovers at home. The Cyclones won in a sloppy game by a score of 9-7, and they needed every one of those eight turnovers to pull off the win. The last time the Cornhuskers turned it over so much was when they faced the Cyclones in 1972, and the last time that they lost to ISU at home was 32 years ago!

The Cyclones had a ton of high achievers, and a ton of players that created a lot of stats, but LB Jesse Smith, CB David Sims, James Smith combined for 30 tackles, 2 forced fumbles, three recovered fumbles, two interceptions and two deflected passes.

3. Freddie Barnes Watch

Two weeks ago Bowling Green WR Freddie Barnes caught 22 passes in a game, and became a legit contender for the most receptions in a season record that has stood for 20-years. To get such a record a player would have to average about 12 passes per game for the entire regular season to break the old record of 142. Barnes has averaged 12 receptions over the last two games, and he has 99 for the season already with 4 games left, which means he only needs an exact average of 11 receptions per game (44 total) from here on out to break the record, and Barnes has been able to get over 11 receptions in half of his games this year. The Falcons need to win three of their next four games to become bowl eligible, and if they lose this week against Buffalo it is safe to assume that they will be looking to break the record to have at least one bright note in a bad season.

Mike Harman, Crow Eating Session 1.0

Every few weeks from here on out, I am going to do one thing that just about no other writer does, and that is to find one thing that I have predicted in the past, and to eat some crow. I could go into some predictions that I have done well and before everyone else, like Jimmy Clausen becoming a stud QB and prospect, but it’s much more fun to have a writer attack themselves.

WEEK 1: http://draftzoo.com/2009/07/2009-college-football-preview-pac-10/

The Pac-10 predictions look pretty accurate at the top, but as you can see from the preview, the bottom of the list just isn’t done well. While I’m not a huge fan of Jake Locker going pro yet, I definitely doubted his skills a few months ago, because I had Washington State finishing above the Huskies this year! The Cougars have won one game this year, while the Huskies are currently 8th in the Pac-10. Arizona (who I had finishing eighth) is currently sitting second in the Pac-10, but the Wildcats have games against the top half of the conference left. Either way it should be noted that one of the worst predictions of my career has been taking the Washington State Cougars to finish 9th in the conference ahead of the much improved Huskies.

Heisman Barometer

by Hunter Ansley

1.)  Mark Ingram, RB, Alabama

He’s the big wooden spoon that’s churning the Alabama butter, at least on offense.  With QB Greg McElroy struggling to reach midseason form, Ingram has stepped up and become the Crimson Tide offense.  In the win over South Carolina, he posted 246 yards and a score.  For the year, he’s over 1000 yards (one of only three backs in the country to get there this early), and it never hurts to be the offensive star for the nation’s top team.

Week 8 Stats:  18 carries, 99 yards

2.)  Colt McCoy, QB, Texas

He’s back, in a way.  That was an impressive win over Missouri as the Longhorns took their turn as the week’s most impressive top three team.  McCoy finally looked like the guy we’ve all been waiting to see.  His 84% completion rate was astounding, and Texas rolled over Missouri.  Even with OU in the rearview, Colt still has a big opportunity this weekend in primetime at Oklahoma State.  If the SEC defenses continue to step up and limit Tebow and Ingram, McCoy can best his runner-up status from a year ago.

Week 8 Stats:  26/31, 269 yards, 3 TD 1 INT, 11 carries, 13 yards

3.)  Tim Tebow, QB, Florida

Ouch.  It’s been a rough go of it for Superman over the last two weeks.  The Arkansas game was too close, despite a decent day from Tebow, and his shoddy play in Starkville nearly cost the Gators a chance at the title (that’s strangely difficult to type).  Twice Tim was picked by Johnthan Banks, and twice Banks took it to the house.  Still, Florida is undefeated, and we’ve all seen what the Gators and their QB can do once they get on a roll.  If the Georgia game is a stat-heavy blowout, Tebow can get back into the thick of the stiff-arm talk.  At least he’s still putting up solid rushing numbers.

Week 8 Stats:  12/22, 127 yards, 0 TD 2 INT, 22 carries, 88 yards, 1 TD

4.)  Jimmy Clausen, QB, Notre Dame

If Notre Dame had beaten USC, this would be your Heisman frontrunner.  It’s hard to find a quarterback with a better statline.  For the season Clausen has thrown for 2050 yards, 16 TDs, and only two INTs.  He’s got Notre Dame flirting with a consistent top 25 ranking (a bigger feat than it used to be), and he’s garnering some serious consideration as the top pick in next April’s draft.  It’ll take some losses from a few other teams, but if Clausen can somehow play the Irish back to the BCS, he could become the Golden Domers first Heisman winner since Tim Brown in 1987.  It’s never a bad thing when a 250+ yard 2 TD day is considered “average” for your season.

Week 8 Stats:  26/39, 246 yards, 2 TD 0 INT, 6 carries, 1 yard

5.)  Kellen Moore, QB, Boise State

And the guy that probably doesn’t stand a chance.  Kellen Moore can thank Oregon for keeping the Broncos first win from falling to the scrapheap.  With the way the Ducks are playing, Boise is using their victory over Chip Kelly’s squad as a springboard into the top seven.  Boise may not accomplish enough as a team to push voters in Moore’s direction, but you can’t argue with what he’s accomplished thus far.  He’s got the top passer rating in the country, and undefeated team, the 10th best completion percentage, and the most TD passes.  Not bad for a guy who went overlooked on the national recruiting scene two years ago.  He’s the best non-BCS QB in America… maybe more.

Week 8 Stats:  18/30, 223 yards, 5 TD 0 INT, 2 carries, -6 yards