Professor Mike’s Five Lessons, Key Stats, and Heisman Barometer

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1. I Believe in TCU

A week ago I did something that I thought I would regret and that is move TCU above Texas in the rankings. I did so because after a too close for comfort 20-17 victory over Air Force TCU had turned it up and scored 178 points in their last four games while only allowing 25 (average game score of 45-6). The defense has been the same top-10 essence it has been, but the offense exploded and has played as well as any other team out there. That all of course was until the Horned Frogs were settled into to face their last true task of the season against Utah this last weekend, and the Frogs didn’t disappoint. The defense got pressure on the Utes, they stopped any major chance of a huge Ute game, and they made huge plays that included a pick-6 and a blocked punt. But even more impressive in the game was the offense that 549 yards and six touchdowns on the Ute defense. The Frogs had rushing touchdowns from four different people, and a total of 58 more yards rushing than the entire Utah offense.

TCU has quality wins at Virginia, Clemson, BYU, and Air Force (who’s worst loss is against Minnesota), and a huge home win against Utah. Texas has just as many wins against ranked opponents, and will end the regular season with only one more quality win. But TCU has been the only truly elite team that has come out at any point this season, and the fact of the matter is that right now the Horned Frogs are the 2nd best team. They have a top-5 defense that no offense wants to face, and an offense that is simply amazing right now. In their five quality wins the Horned Frogs have allowed only 15 points a game while scoring 31 and they are the team with the easiest path to an undefeated season.

2. Three Huge Turnaround Seasons

Last year Iowa State and Idaho won two games, and SMU won just one. Each team had their own problems and their own different adversities but this year they share the same common achievement: Bowl eligibility. SMU won just one game in June Jone’s first season last year, and the program certainly has risen this season. The Mustangs are 6-4, bowl eligible, and actually are still in it to go 8-4, and go to the Conference USA championship game. Idaho won just two games last season but the Vandals are currently on pace to win eight games and get to a bowl game this season. Iowa State also won just two games in 2008 before having their coach leave for Auburn. But the Cyclones have rallied this season under the amazing new coach Paul Rhodes and they won their 6th game against Colorado this last weekend.

3. The BCS is Starting to Take Shape

For the first time this season it has settled in that the BCS bowl games are starting to take shape, and while there is still some uncertainty there is still a lot being figured out. Ohio State has rallied the last two weeks to win yet another trip to a BCS bowl game that packs a little controversy. Ohio State will go to the Rose Bowl and will face one of four teams that are still battling it out for the glory. Oregon has the best advantage right now with only one conference loss, but with a game at Arizona and against Oregon State at home the conference is still completely open. If both Oregon and Oregon State win this weekend the Civil War rivalry will take a Rosy twist.

Florida and Alabama will face off for a BCS Championship game ticket while the loser of that game will hit the Sugar Bowl. Assuming Texas doesn’t slip up they will be heading to the Championship game, and the winner of the Cincinnati v Pittsburgh game gets a ticket to the Orange Bowl. Clemson will likely get into the ACC Championship game and will face Georgia Tech. The winner of that game gets the other Orange Bowl ticket. I truly believe that both undefeated TCU and Boise State teams will get their BCS goals matched with the lack of 1-loss teams in football, and with that only one BCS spot is open.

If Oklahoma State can win out they will likely hold a large enough advantage to take the last BCS opening, but should they fall (like most predict they will against Oklahoma) the BCS spot will likely fall to Iowa, Penn State or a Stanford team should they win out against California and Notre Dame. This all might sound a little confusing and the simple answer for the confusion is that while some of the answers have been told, very little is truly known at this point.

4. The NCAA needs to do something for the Small Schools.

It has come out publicly over the last couple of weeks that one of the reasons that Boise State’s schedule has been weak as of late is the fact that nobody wants to face them in the regular season. Teams like Texas, Oklahoma, and Michigan that don’t have a full schedule in 2011 won’t take on a team like Boise State at home. Boise isn’t asking for a return game at the blue turf, and they still can’t get a legit road game for 2011. But that wasn’t all as it was announced that Texas Tech has dropped out of their game for 2010 with TCU. The Red Raiders were only able to put three points against the Horned Frogs when they met in 2006, and Texas Tech now has backed out of their game next year. The Red Raiders have said that they are backing out to fix their schedule for television reasons, but the Weber State home game they schedule says nothing good about their character. The fact of the matter is that the NCAA needs to step in and force teams to face the non-BCS schools instead of scheduling multiple games against D-II FCS teams.

5. More Teams in College Need to Run a 3-4

This a random point, but I am currently updating my 2010 NFL mock right now and there are very few nose tackles out there to give to the 14 or 15 teams in the NFL that run the 3-4. While it is easy to mock a player like Terrence Cody as a nose tackle, it isn’t as easy to mock a potential NT that runs in a 4-3.

STATS OF THE WEEK

1. Donald Buckram, RB, UTEP

This weekend was not a great one for the UTEP miners as they lost their seventh game of the season and can’t become bowl eligible. But one bright and shiny note for the Miners is that Donald Buckram is setting himself up for a huge season next year. Over the last two weeks Buckram has run for a total of 475 yards and 4 touchdowns while also catching 8 balls for 175 yards and two more scores. That’s a grand total of 650 yards of offense and six total touchdowns over the course of two games. Buckram is only a junior this season and is setting himself up for a lot more carries next year.

2. Tim Tebow, QB, Florida

No stat book went unturned this weekend as Tim Tebow led his Gators to a perfect SEC record for the first time in the East since 1996. While Florida’s schedule has been nothing close to as difficult as the SEC could have been, it must be noted that he had done one more thing that few QBs have dreamed about. But that wasn’t even Tebow’s biggest stat of the week as he tied the record for most career rushing touchdowns in the SEC. Tebow has now entered a special place in college rushing as he is on pace to score a few more and only needs three to enter the top-10 of the rushing record books.

3. Colt McCoy

Tim Tebow can have that record because Colt McCoy set himself up to break and even more impressive record. McCoy tied the record for career football wins in college, and has at least four more tries to break that record. To put it into retrospect, if McCoy wins a very moderate 2 more of his next four games he will have averaged 11 wins per season for his career. It is hard to believe that if McCoy wins the next three games on his way to the BCS Championship, that anyone will break his record any time soon.

Heisman Barometer

by Hunter Ansley

1.  Toby Gerhart, RB, Stanford

Once again, a guy who might not have a real shot at winning the award.  Mark Ingram looks poised to become Alabama’s first Heisman recipient ever, and I’m not trying to take anything away from him, but I don’t think the Tide would struggle without him.  Stanford, on the other hand, doesn’t beat USC without their junior tailback.  He’s a deceptively quick bulldozer who has the Cardinal on the right track to getting back to the Rose Bowl.  One loss from Oregon, and a Pac 10 title could be just enough help to give Gerhart the hardware.  At the very least, he’s my number one.

Last Week’s Stats:  178 Rushing Yards, 3 TDs

2.  Mark Ingram, RB, Alabama

He’s probably the realistic frontrunner right now, and it’s not like he doesn’t deserve it.  1297 rushing yards, 13 total TDs, and a 6.7 ypc average.  Not bad at all, especially through only 10 games.  But the biggest reason that Ingram’s looking like a lock to become the second sophomore to win the Heisman is the fact that his team is undefeated.  One big test left against Florida in the SEC championship.  Win that one and head to Pasadena for the big game and Mark can vote for himself next year.

Last Week’s Stats:  149 Rushing Yards, 2 TDs

3.  Tim Tebow, QB, Florida

No, it hasn’t been the dream season everyone expected from the Gators, unless you ask Tim.  All he wants to do is win, and no one’s doing it better than Florida right now.  A few are doing it just as well, but undefeated is undefeated.  And when you’re the unquestioned leader of one of those squads, and a past winner, the Heisman is always in reach.  His stats aren’t going to wow anyone, and it will probably take some gaudy numbers and blowout wins in the last two regular season games plus a win over Bama, but does anyone really think Florida is perfect right now with John Brantley at the helm?

Last Week’s Stats:  199 Passing Yards, 1 TD, 26 Rushing Yards, 1 TD

4.  Colt McCoy, QB, Texas

I’m not anti-McCoy, but I just haven’t been that impressed.  Yeah, his numbers are near Tebow’s, but they’re not quite as good.  I’ll take Tebow’s 3:1 TD:INT ration over McCoy’s 2:1.  And I’ll also take Tebow’s 10 rushing touchdowns (McCoy has 1).  Here’s the deal, Colt hasn’t had to do all that much this season to guide the Longhorns to victory.  The biggest thing he can do now is keep his jaw-dropping completion percentage going, continue to win games, and hope that voters take notice of the amazing record he’s about to break — career wins.  That’s almost enough to garner the trophy right there.

Last Week’s Stats:  181 Passing Yards, 2 TDs, 13 Rushing Yards

5.  CJ Spiller, RB, Clemson

If only Clemson had backed Spiller up with some big victories in the early goings, then he’d be a lock for at least an invite.  Of course, the Tigers’ early losses reflect poorly on Spiller, but they’re starting to win convincingly, and while voters will wonder whether or not Spiller could have done more in September, there’s no question that he’s the driving force behind the recent winning streak.  He’s the most versatile player in the nation right now, as evidenced by his unprecedented performance last week (1 Rushing TD, 1 Receiving TD, and 1 Passing TD).  He keeps finding new ways to score.  Just check out his numbers.

Last Week’s Stats:  17 Passing Yards, 1 TD, 97 Rushing Yards, 1 TD, 48 Receiving Yards, 1 TD