Professor Mike’s Five Lessons, Key Stats, and Heisman Barometer

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1. Unbeaten Teams Need to be Respected

It seems like every single week a team either wins a huge game, or they struggle to win and either way the media goes insane about it. Duck fans will think that they deserve to be ranked 3rd or 4th in the BCS after destroying USC’s defense, while at the same time people will downgrade the Iowa Hawkeyes because of their close games. That is ridiculous, and there is no reason that any 1-loss team has any reason to be ranked ahead of an unbeaten team at this point, or any other point in the rest of the season for the following reasons:

• Florida and Alabama have remarkable defenses, and solid offenses that have kept them unbeaten in the SEC.

• Texas is undefeated with two big wins, and they sit in a conference that has no 1-loss teams.

• Cincinnati is winning by a margin of 30 points per game, and they haven’t had a major drop-off in their play even with the loss of Tony Pike.

• Iowa has three solid road wins, they look amazing in the 4th quarter, and they had a 6-turnover game before having a disgusting 4th quarter. Oh, and they still covered the spread this week. You want to know the only team with nine wins this season? That’d be the Hawkeyes!

• TCU is playing like the 4th best team in the country right now, and they are the only team to beat Boise State in the last two years.

• Boise State BEAT Oregon, they don’t lose games and they have the best undergrad QB in the country.

2. And the 1-Loss Teams and the BCS Bowls:

• LSU might be the only 1-loss team that deserves the respect because their only loss was to the Gators by 10 points. If the Tigers beat Alabama and end up beating Florida in the SEC Championship then it might be hard to justify them as a normal 1-loss team, but time will tell.

• Oregon looks good, but they LOST to Boise State, but they should respect because they get to face USC, Cal, Oregon State, and Utah at home this season.

• Penn State has had one loss this year… to undefeated Iowa.

• Georgia Tech lost to a now 2-loss Miami team.

• Utah lost a close game against Oregon.

• Pittsburgh’s only loss: To a 3-win N.C. State team.

• Houston has one loss this year against a 3-win UTEP team.

So as you look at the seven teams above, only LSU, Oregon and Penn State have an argument that they are a legit team, but there truly should not be a 1-loss team jumping an unbeaten. Overall this week the BCS did a good job as all of the unbeaten teams are together, and with the exception of USC the 1-loss teams are grouped as well. With the rankings in place the BCS bowl games should look something like this:

Rose: Oregon v Iowa
Fiesta: TCU v Penn State
Sugar: Boise State v Bama/Florida
Orange: Georgia Tech v Cincinnati
Champ: Bama/Florida v Texas

Overall the BCS would be pretty good, and the only team that gets screwed is LSU. Obviously this next weekend will have Bama v LSU and Penn State v Ohio State, so there is no concrete answer yet!

3. The SEC has Two Games Left

Florida has already locked up their spot in the SEC title game after a big win this weekend, and this next weekend the West will likely find its top choice for the championship. If Alabama beats LSU they will lock themselves into the championship game, and if LSU pull the upset then they will be on the short train to a rematch against Florida. Auburn, Ole Miss and Mississippi State all have a chance to get into that game, but there is a better chance that Terrence Cody will block two kicks in a game… Oh wait.

4. The ACC has been Moved to the BCS Endangered Conference List

The ACC is the biggest hit-or-miss conference in football, and after a loss my Virginia Tech this weekend the conference has been moved onto the endangered conference list. Georgia Tech is the only 1-loss team in the conference, and the only two loss team is a Miami squad that is still a year away from being elite. There are five teams with three losses total, and overall the conference looks like it is going to have a ton of 7-5 records. This seems to be outrageous, but it’s nothing new at all as the average team on each side of the conference championship game is 9-3, and there has never been an undefeated or 1-loss team in the championship game’s young history. Over the last seven years the conference has had only two seasons with a winning bowl record, and over the last three seasons the ACC’s bowl record has been 10-16 (with a 6-12 record over the last two).

5. Even More Uncertainty in the Big-12

The Big-12 has been one of the craziest conferences this season in football. Oklahoma has lost three games, Oklahoma State and Texas Tech lost to Houston, and the newest revelation has been the crazy Big-12 North that still doesn’t have a bowl eligible team after nine weeks! Other than Colorado, every team in the North has five wins for the season thus far, and the conference championship game might have an odd matchup. Here are the five teams with a legit chance to take the North, and what their future holds:

• Kansas State (currently 3-2 in the conference with a 5-4 record). The team has looked pretty good this season despite few giving them a shot to even make a bowl, but tough matchups against Missouri, Kansas and Nebraska will make it hard to take the North.

• Nebraska (currently 2-2 in the conference with a 5-3 record). The Huskers will likely struggle to beat Oklahoma next weekend, but games against Kansas, Kansas State and Colorado will be potential wins.

• Iowa State (currently 2-3 in conference with a 5-4 record). The Cyclones will struggle to beat Oklahoma State next week at home, but could potentially become bowl eligible against Colorado or Missouri.

• Kansas (currently 1-3 in conference with a 5-3 record). The Jayhawks were 5-0, and ranked three weeks ago but have dropped three straight. Kansas State and Nebraska are potential wins, and they might be the hardest team left on Texas’s schedule before they end the regular season against Missouri.

• Missouri (currently 1-3 in conference with a 5-3 record). The Tigers might have the best shot at winning out as they have Baylor, Kansas State, Iowa State and Kansas left on their schedule.

Either way the North is having an interesting year, and the next two weeks will be crucial to see who will be facing Texas in the conference championship game.

STATS OF THE WEEK

1. Adam Weber, QB, Minnesota

This week I heard the news that Eric Decker would be out for the remainder of the regular season, and I instantly thought that their season was going to be pretty much over. That was of course until QB Adam Weber destroyed the Michigan State defense this weekend by throwing for 416 yards and five touchdowns (including one of the best TD’s you will ever see).

2. Ndamukong Suh Jr?

Ok, so maybe Jared Crick is no Suh, but the sophomore tackle that plays next to Suh had a school record five sacks against Baylor. To put this into retrospect, Ndamukong Suh got an outrageous seven sacks last year, and Crick now has eight for the season! Maybe this is a product of the system, and it never hurts to have Suh playing next to you, but Crick might be developing into one of the better DT prospects of the future.

3. Bernard Pierce, RB, Temple

Bernard Pierce is just another one of the unbelievable freshman running backs that have taken the college reigns this year. Pierce wasn’t a highly recruited player from high school, but the true freshman has a 1,000 yard season already, and is averaging 6.3 YPC after a huge 267-yard game against Navy last week. The Owls have won every game that Pierce has gotten 10+ carries in this season, and he has five 100-yard games out of the last six games. He is also averaging two scores per game since taking over as the main rusher for the Owls. It should also be known that Pierce is just one of the many reasons that I eat crow below…

Mike Harman, Crow Eating Session 2.0

Every few weeks from here on out, I am going to do one thing that just about no other writer does, and that is to find one thing that I have predicted in the past, and to eat some crow. I could go into some predictions that I have done well and before everyone else, like Jimmy Clausen becoming a stud QB and prospect, but it’s much more fun to have a writer attack themselves.

WEEK 2: http://draftzoo.com/2009/07/2009-college-football-preview-mac/

When I made the MAC preview, I got quite a bit of hate mail from readers that I picked Temple to finish last in the East. One reader pointed me to a different preview that predicted them to have a good season primarily because the coaching staff has a lot of ties to Penn State, and while I still don’t think that justifies anything, it is hard to not like Temple’s 6-2 record. I can’t eat too much crow because I said in the original article that Al Golden had never beaten a team with a winning record, and Golden finally got that big win two weeks ago against Toledo. That was all nice too until this last weekend when they beat a 2-loss Navy team that would likely have gotten a top-25 ranking with a win.

Temple is 1st in the conference and not last at this point, Kent State is currently 2nd (although they only have 1 big win over 3rd place Ohio). Buffalo is sitting 3rd to last with a 3-5 record, and Akron (who I picked to finish second) is sitting with a 1-7 record. Overall the MAC is truly looking like the Mildly Amazing Club that was predicted, and only three teams (Central Michigan, Ohio, and Temple).

Heisman Barometer

1.  Tim Tebow, QB, Florida

There it was, that’s what he needed.  A vintage Tebow game from the Gators’ QB.  Two touchdowns through the air, two touchdowns on the ground.  All against a rival team.  Tebow has the most impressive stats of any of the preseason “big three,” and his play finally has Florida looking like the number one team in the nation.  If he can go on another run and continue to drive the UF offense to the SEC title, he’ll have the inside track to winning his second trophy. This award has become more about being the face of the best team than being the best player in the nation.

2.  Jimmy Clausen, QB, Notre Dame

If only, if only.  If only Clausen had beaten USC then he’d be atop the list.  Still, like always, he’s got the best stat line of any BCS quarterback and the voters have been dreaming of giving this award to a Notre Dame player since Tim Brown won it back in ‘87.  Clausen may lose out to a player on a better team, but right now he’s a lock for an invite.  If he can somehow get the Irish to the BCS, he’ll have a puncher’s chance of winning the award.  More than likely, he’ll have to settle for being the top pick in next April’s draft.

3.  Colt McCoy, QB, Texas

The biggest thing McCoy has going for him is his team’s success.  Outside of Oregon’s win over USC, his Longhorns’ beatdown of Oklahoma State was the most impressive win of the weekend.  His stats weren’t anything special against the Cowboys, but they didn’t have to be.  He’s still the leader of the offense, and with Texas looking more and more like a lock to play for the BCS title, he’s sitting in a good spot in the all-important “face of the franchise” category.

4.  Jeremiah Masoli, QB, Oregon

Okay, so he really has no shot, but he should.  No team in the nation is hotter than the Ducks right now, and their offense is flowing through Masoli.  He doesn’t have the passing numbers to realistically take the stiff-arm home, but his ability to run Chip Kelly’s system just sunk the USS Pete Carroll like no team ever has.  He’s scored eight times on the ground and hasn’t thrown an interception in five weeks.  His schedule sets up nicely over the next four weeks with games against teams with enough clout to be impressive wins but enough problems to run up the score.  If a few top teams stumble and Masoli plays like he did against USC, then he could garner a few outside looks.

5.  CJ Spiller, RB, Clemson

My apologies to Mark Ingram.  The bye week shouldn’t have allowed Texas to jump your Tide in the rankings, and it probably doesn’t warrant Spiller and Masoli jumping you in the Heisman standings, but when else am I going to get a chance to stump for the Clemson star?  On the season, he’s only rushed for four TDs, and he’s only managed to find the endzone through the air twice.  But he’s got four scores in the kicking game, and he’s as electric as they come.  He’s got no chance, and I don’t mind admitting that, but this has come down to a four man race (Tebow, Clausen, McCoy, and Ingram), and Spiller deserves a mention while it’s still early enough to sneak it in.