Stafford could hold great fantasy value if he spends less time on his back. On the field.
John Young, Special to DraftZoo
Fantasy football is all about value. Teams that win find the gems in the middle and late rounds that most people overlook, while bad teams are usually comprised of reaches and zero upside picks. No one can predict the future, but I can certainly try. Keep these guys in mind as you have your fantasy draft this year, and you will reap the rewards.
Great Value:
QB: Matt Ryan (94.8 ADP)
It seems that fantasy players are forgetting about how good a quarterback Ryan is. Despite missing time last year, he approached 3000 yards with 22 touchdowns – pretty solid numbers. With Michael Turner expected to return to full effectiveness, defenses will have to respect the run, and Ryan should benefit from this, and he should be good for 3500 yards and 25-28 touchdowns. I’ll take that from a quarterback going around the 8th round any day.
QB: Matt Stafford (132.4 ADP)
Instead of taking an overrated bum like Carson Palmer as your QB 2, take a look at Stafford. Detroit’s offense should be vastly improved with the additions of Nate Burleson, Tony Scheffler, and Jahvid Best, and Stafford has a year of experience under his belt. Factor in Detroit’s still iffy defense and I expect Stafford to reach 3700 yards and 22 touchdowns.
RB: Michael Bush (102.4 ADP)
Mark my words: if you’re going to draft any of my sleepers, take Bush. Common knowledge is that Bush is going to be the 2nd RB behind Darren McFadden. Don’t buy into that. Bush is infinitly more talented than Darren McFadden, and I think he’ll begin the year as the starter. Bush had almost 700 total yards and 3 touchdowns last year despite sharing carries with D-Mac and Justin Fargas, and I expect those numbers to drastically increase. If he begins the year as the starter, expect 1200 yards and 10 touchdowns – a complete steal for a guy who’s being drafted around the 9th round.
RB: Larry Johnson (170 ADP)
Clinton Portis and Willie Parker are both done. Larry Johnson, however, has looked very impressive so far in training camp, and he should end up being the starter. Factor in Mike Shanahan’s RB friendly system, and LJ could be good for 800-1000 yards and 5-7 touchdowns, great value for a guy who isn’t being drafted in most leagues.
RB: Jonathan Stewart (36.1 ADP)
DeAngello Williams is still there, but that’s no excuse for why Jonathan Stewart is being drafted so low (late 3rd round on average). Stewart is younger, a better goal line back, and actually finished with more carries than Williams last year. Sure, Williams will still command a lot of carries, but I would be shocked if Stewart didn’t finish the year with more points than Williams. Look for 1200-1300 yards and 15 touchdowns from the Oregon product this year.
WR: Malcom Floyd (129.8 ADP)
I guess people haven’t got the memo that Vincent Jackson is suspended for 3 games yet. There’s also a good chance that he’ll continue to hold out and/or be dealt this year. This makes Floyd the Chargers #1 wide receiver, and he should capitalize on the opporitunity in San Diego’s high octane offense. If Jackson doesn’t play this year or misses a good bit of time (and he probably will), expect Floyd to have around 850 yards and 7-8 touchdowns.
WR: Hakeem Nicks (75.5 ADP)
Not much to say about Nicks, who will begin the year as a starter, and should improve on a great rookie campaign. Anyone who saw him last year knows how talented he is, and with a year of experience under his belt, he should only improve. I think Nicks is good for 1100 yards and 8 touchdowns. He’s an absolute bargain in the 5th or 6th round.
WR: Brandon Tate (170 ADP)
Tate, not old bum Torry Holt, could start across from Randy Moss. Tate has great talent, and should benefit if Welker’s injury flares up and from Moss’s constant double teams. And if Moss gets injured or starts to decline (which isn’t unreasonable, as he is 33)? Tate is going undrafted in almost every league right now, but his upside is incredible. I expect 700 yards and 4 to 5 touchdowns from Tate, a number that could increase if Moss becomes injured.
TE: Jermichael Finley (67.1 ADP)
Everyone’s favorite sleeper for TE, though he’s still the 8th tight end coming off the board in most leagues. Finley finished last year on an absolute tear, and he should be in for a big year in Green Bay’s insane offense. I see Finley finishing the year with 1200 yards and 7 touchdowns. Get him while you can.
