Trading up for Ingram was the right move.

With the draft schedule this year, I’m holding off on my longer, more detailed grades until the whole thing’s cooked.  But, that’s no reason to deprive you of a quick look at each NFL team’s first three rounds of picking.

I’ve separated the draft classes into five categories, and you can think of them as A, B, C, D and F if you wan’t to; just remember that they should all technically be ‘Incompletes’ at this point.  But, for the sake of these early grades, here’s a quick rundown of what each score means so you’ll understand why a C isn’t necessarily a bad thing…

A = Excellent pick.

B = Good pick.

C = Average pick.

D = Poor pick.

F = Failing pick.

So, here goes.  Obviously, we’ll be starting with the ‘A’ Grades.  Right now, our No. 1 ranked team, New Orleans, is in sole position of first place, though having four picks helped some.  The other three top hauls all tied mathematically, so I had to get subjective.

1.) New Orleans Saints – 3.75

1.24 = Cameron Jordan, DE, California

Excellent marriage of value and need here, and the Saints get a player who should never have lasted this long.  He was my top-rated defensive end.  GRADE: A

1.28 = Mark Ingram, RB, Alabama

The Saints traded back into the first round, and gave up a decent bit in the process, but it was well worth it.  As my No. 5 overall player, Ingram, in my opinion, represents excellent value and will finally steady Saints backfield. GRADE: A

3.72 = Martez Wilson, LB, Illinois

Once again, this is pretty damn solid value.  Wilson’s injury history (neck) scared quite a few teams off, but there’s no denying his athleticism and potential to get after the passer. OLB has been a Nola problem for years. GRADE: A

3.88 = Johnny Patrick, CB, Louisville

There was a point during the offseason when I would have given this pick an A.  However, even if the Saints were desperate for a corner, I’m not sure Patrick was the best option.  Still, he’s only recently begun to realize his potential.  GRADE: B

2.) Tennessee Titans – 3.67

1.8 = Jake Locker, QB, Washington

Some will hate this pick, and I can see where they’re coming from, but it’s one of my favorites. Locker’s 2010 film wasn’t nearly as bad as it was made out to be, but the athletic potential, attitude, need and work ethic all make him worth the eighth pick in my mind. GRADE: A

2.39 = Akeem Ayers, OLB, UCLA

Another player I was much higher on than some.  Ayers was a top-15 player who showed much better on the field than inside Lucas Oil Stadium. He’s clutch, and he fills a big need in Tennessee, where he’ll be a strong fit in the 4-3.  GRADE: A

3.77 = Jurrell Casey, DT, USC

I was much higher on Casey coming into the season than I was immediately after it ended, but going back you see a wide player who splits double teams and finds the football. Really didn’t think he’d last this long.  GRADE: B

3.) Detroit Lions – 3.67

1.13 = Nick Fairley, DT, Auburn

What’s not to like about this pick all the way down at No. 13? Pairing Fairley with Suh could pay off in a huge way, considering offensive lines won’t be able to focus entirely on either player. Will be tougher to keep Aaron Rodgers, Jay Cutler clean.  GRADE: A

2.44 = Titus Young, WR, Boise

I wasn’t as high on Young as some, but like Fairley, Young’s NFL situation is ideal.  He’ll be able to get acclimated as a return man early on with the goal of becoming a speedy deep threat with inside savvy. With Megatron on the field, he’ll be free to interlope. GRADE: B

2.57 = Mikel Leshoure, RB, Illinois

Leshoure bounced from 2-to-3 and back again on my RB board, but it was surprising to see him fall. He never, and I mean never fumbles, and his build and power make him a perfect complement to Jahvid Best. GRADE: A

4.) Cleveland Browns – 3.67

1.21 = Phil Taylor, DT, Baylor

Taylor is a much better fit in the 4-3 than anyone seems to realize. Watching him on tape or in person, it’s easy to see that despite his stocky measurements, he’s a penetrating, disruptive type who should be better in a 40-front. GRADE: B

2.37 = Jabaal Sheard, DE, Pitt

Sheard was one of my favorite players in the draft, and I love his technique, intensity and motor. He can be the pass rusher Cleveland sorely lacks earlier than a lot of DEs.  Shouldn’t have fallen this far. GRADE: A

2.59 = Greg Little, WR, UNC

I know people will balk at this grade, and I’ll explain it in more detail in my final grades, but the Browns had to get someone for Colt McCoy to work with. Despite missing a season, Little has an excellent shot to make an early impact. GRADE: A

And now we get into the ‘B’s.  There are twice as many of them, and although these are good classes, each reached in a significant way at least once.  Nothing wrong with a grabbing this grade, but it’ll take a strong finish to earn an ‘A.’

So, we’ve looked at the top four classes, and now it’s time to focus on the teams that have a long road ahead if they want to cap a successful draft.  A couple of these squads were hurt by owning fewer picks, and others just got a late start, but all are quickly securing a high selection next season.  Anyway, here are teams 32-29.

29.) San Francisco 49ers – 1.67

1.7 = Aldon Smith, OLB, Missouri

I personally thought this was way too high for Smith.  I had him in the 30-40 range overall, and I still think he would have been better with his hand in the dirt in a 4-3. I see some Aaron Maybin here, but at least the Niners got a pass rusher.  GRADE: D

2.36 = Colin Kaepernick, QB, Nevada

I gave it a ‘C’ initially, but I’ve bumped it back up. Harbaugh couldn’t go into this season with no alternative to Alex Smith. Kaepernick’s a project, but his upside is immense, and he looks a lot like a rich man’s Josh Johnson.  GRADE: B

3.80 = Chris Culliver, DB, South Carolina

Again, right position of need, wrong player.  There were many better options on the board, in my opinion, whether San Fran wanted to go corner or not. This seemed forced, and I don’t see Culliver becoming much more than a special teams ace.  GRADE: D

30.) Oakland Raiders – 1.67

2.48 = Stefen Wisniewski, C, Penn State

Nothing wrong with this pick at all.  Wisniewski’s not flashy, but he gets the job done, plays with a lot of grit and has the bloodlines to make this one a no-brainer. The Raiders needed a center, and Wisniewski was the best pure option in the draft. GRADE: B

3.81 = DeMarcus Van Dyke, CB, Miami

Nothing I really like about this one. Van Dyke is rail thin, didn’t make that many plays in college and seems to get lost at times. He ran a great time, and Oakland can’t breathe without reaching, but that doesn’t excuse the pick. GRADE: D

3.92 = Joe Barksdale, OT, LSU

Barksdale should slide inside to guard, but there’s a need for a right tackle in Oakland, and he’ll likely end up playing out of position. That’s not great for a guy who never put his athleticism to use and lacks a mean streak. GRADE: D

31.) New York Jets – 1.5

1.30 = Muhammad Wilkerson, DE, Temple

Wilkerson fills a big need for a pass rusher up front, but he wasn’t the right guy to grab. He ran hot and cold in college, looked lost and disinterested if his initial jump wasn’t perfect and didn’t dominate the MAC as consistently as I would have liked. GRADE: D

3.94 = Kenrick Ellis, DT, Hampton

This is a little better. At least Ellis is coming 64 picks later. He’s an athletic freak at almost 6-05, 350, but he’s not polished at all. I think he’s put his character issues behind him, but he still plays high and looks lost too often. GRADE: C

32.) Miami Dolphins – 1.0

1.15 = Mike Pouncey, OG, Florida

Sadly, it’s not surprising that Pouncey was over-drafted.  I know how good his brother was, but Mike isn’t a center yet, and grabbing a guard doesn’t do much to shore up Chad Henne’s accuracy issues. GRADE: D

2.62 = Daniel Thomas, RB, Kansas State

I understand the want for a WildCat-friendly RB, but Thomas wasn’t worth this pick. I get that he was higher on a lot of team boards than he was on mine, but I would have waited and taken a chance on losing a high-cut, leggy guy.  GRADE: D

Round 2

and

Round 3

Round 1 finished 10th in HuddleReport contest. 2011 NFL Draft Grades coming tonight.

FINAL MOCK (4/28/11)

Follow me on Twitter @DraftZoo

Top 5 Reaches based on value board: Aldon Smith, James Carpenter, Jon Baldwin, Mo Wilkerson, Mike Pouncey.
Top 5 Steals based on value board: Mark Ingram, Cameron Jordan, Derek Sherrod, Cam Heyward, Prince Amukamara.

ROUND 1|ROUND 2|ROUND 3|ROUND 4|ROUND 5|ROUND 6|ROUND 7

	1|Cam Newton|QB
I'm not buying any of the talk about Newton slipping past No. 1. We hear the same things every year, and with Jimmy Clausen clearly not the answer in Carolina, the Panthers will happily gamble on Newton's upside.
	2|Von Miller|OLB
I like Marcell Dareus, but John Fox had a lot of success the last time he drafted an ace pass rusher. I'm thinking he'll follow suit here and ease the load on Denver's secondary with the best player in the draft.
	3|Marcell Dareus|DT
Buffalo doesn't have to worry about making a decision on Newton. They'll finally add a stalwart piece on the D-line who can play next to and spell Kyle Williams. Dareus is a heck of a consolation prize.
	4|AJ Green|WR
Cincinnati and Ochocinco aren't friends anymore, and Green's a better player anyway... right now. No matter who plays QB, he'll have an incredible talent out wide who plays at full speed 100% of the time.
	5|Patrick Peterson|CB
Ken Whisenhunt needs to win now, and although it'd be tempting to grab Gabbert here, I think the Cards will opt to add one of the most pro-ready corners in NFL Draft history. It's not like they don't need one.
	6|Julio Jones|WR
Tough call for Cleveland, and although the Browns have virtually nothing in their front seven, I think Jones is too talented to overlook. Forget his receiving, his physicality and blocking will fit perfectly in the AFC North.
	7|Robert Quinn|OLB
The Niners have plenty of needs, and with Gabbert on the board, he could be the pick. However, I don't see Harbaugh giving up on Alex Smith already, and they could certainly use a freak pass rusher like Quinn.
	8|Nick Fairley|DT
It almost seems too perfect to actually happen, but I can't get past Fairley here. He'll bring a nasty attitude back to the middle of Tennessee's defense, and he can pressure Manning and Schaub consistently.
	9|Tyron Smith|OT
Again, this pick has been mocked so often that it seems unlikely, especially considering Jerry Jones' history of passing on O-linemen in Round 1. However, Smith has enough flash to catch his eye.
	10|Blaine Gabbert|QB
Maybe they trade up to get him, maybe he actually falls this far. Either way, I don't see how Mike Shanahan passes up the opportunity to add Gabbert to his offense. He's very similar to Jay Cutler.
	11|P. Amukamara|CB
As hard as it is to spend consecutive first-round picks on the same position, the Texans can't afford to pass on a talent like Amukamara. Their secondary is in shambles, and that's no way to beat Peyton.
	12|Jake Locker|QB
Once again, this could be Minnesota's pick even if they aren't selecting 12th. Of course, if they stay put, Locker still makes too much sense for a franchise that's closer to starting over than some think.
	13|A. Castonzo|OT
It'd be awfully hard for Detroit to pass on Da'Quan Bowers here, but they have to finally address the offensive line. Castonzo is a smart player who can start out on the right side if needed and seems like a Schwartz pick.
	14|Cameron Jordan|DE
Lots of love for Corey Liuget at this pick, but I know the Rams are looking for a defensive end somewhat early. Jordan can slide inside when needed, too, making him a perfect fit for St. Louis' defense.
	15|Ryan Mallett|QB
Mallett could end up here in a different slot. I don't see 15th overall as a huge reach, however, and I'm willing to bet Miami agrees if it means moving on from Chad Henne and regaining a passing attack.
	16|Da'Quan Bowers|DE
The Jags won't reach for the fifth QB here, and I don't see any DBs that fit their mold. That leaves defensive end, and getting a guy who was once thought of as the top pick makes a lot of sense.
	17|Nate Solder|OT
I know the Pats cancelled their visit with Solder, but they're crazy anyway and could still go in this direction. Solder is too athletic to fall much further, and New England has major questions up front.
	18|JJ Watt|DE
Watt could slip much further than this, as crazy as that sounds. He's a 5-tech, and that's not nearly as important as a 4-3 DE. Still, the Chargers are desperate for help up front, and he's athletic enough to entice them.
	19|Corey Liuget|DT
No one else seems to think Liuget will fall this far, but this class is stacked with wide-ranging stocks, and a recent-rising DT could slip through the cracks. The Giants won't let him get by at 19 if he does.
	20|Aldon Smith|DE
Smith is another prospect who many have coming off the board much earlier, but he's a young player with some injury questions and projects as a much better 4-3 DE than 3-4 OLB in my mind.
	21|Mike Pouncey|OL
I know the Chiefs are high on Jon Asamoah, but the interior of this offensive line is aging and Pouncey is a great fit with the ability to slide to center later in his career. Scott Pioli needs his Logan Mankins.
	22|James Carpenter|OT
The Colts are going to take an offensive lineman. There's just no way they can let Peyton take another beating. Carpenter looks a lot more like Roger Saffold than the other first-round OTs still on the board.
	23|Jimmy Smith|CB
Another standard mock pick here. The Eagles need some help at corner, and getting a talent like Smith all the way down at 23 is really a no-brainer. He'll push for a starting job from Day 1, and he'll likely earn it.
	24|Akeem Ayers|OLB
The Saints need better pass rushers, but I don't think Ryan Kerrigan fits their mold there. Ayers is getting overlooked because of his times, but he's an elite football player who fills a long-standing need at OLB.
	25|C. Kaepernick|QB
I went back and forth here, and although I wouldn't do it, I think Kaepernick gets the nod. Pete Carroll wants to build for the future, and he needs a passer in place. The upside is there, but it might take a few years.
	26|Derek Sherrod|OT
Baltimore could really use a cornerback, but with Michael Oher possibly sliding to the right side, they'll need an answer on the left. I'm higher on Sherrod than some, and I think he can be a Day 1 blindside protector.
	27|Ryan Kerrigan|OLB
A dream scenario for Atlanta. Kerrigan is slated to go much higher, but just because his combine was surprisingly swift doesn't mean he's a lock for the top 15. He could slide, and the Falcons would pounce.
	28|Cam Heyward|DE
Another defensive end who could come off the board a good bit earlier, Heyward fits the mold of long, strong New England 5-techs. It's been too long since the Pats used a first-rounder to bolster their D-line.
	29|Gabe Carimi|OT
Mike Tice apparently loves Carimi, and for good reason. I still think he's the tackle most likely to slide on Thursday, but Chicago can't be picky. They have to do a better job of protecting Jay Cutler.
	30|Adrian Clayborn|DE
The Jets had to blitz entirely too much in 2010, so I think they'll be looking to amp up the pass rush from the D-line. Clayborn has the anchor to play the run, and he can get after the QB better than most 5-techs.
	31|Aaron Williams|S
I've had Williams in the first round for a long time, and he finds a final home near the end of it. He can certainly help out at corner early, but he also carries the added bonus of replacing Ryan Clark down the line.
	32|Mark Ingram|RB
Maybe Green Bay doesn't take him, and maybe he never falls this far (he shouldn't), but Mark Ingram will go in the first round. If he slips to 32, he could add yet another dimension to the Packers offense.

ROUND 1|ROUND 2|ROUND 3|ROUND 4|ROUND 5|ROUND 6|ROUND 7

4/28/11

Surprise

The first big mock of the year is up, and it only took a good 200 man hours and endless screenings of Billy Madison to finish. So, since it’s impossible to predict five rounds of the NFL Draft, I’ll go ahead and clarify a few things that might seem confusing… 1) I know that the first tight end will probably come off the board much earlier than this mocks shows. 2) It’s also hard to imagine as many QBs going as early as I’m predicting here. And 3) Follow me on Twitter at @DraftZoo (although that has nothing to do with the mock). Hope you enjoy the new format.

ROUND 1|ROUND 2|ROUND 3|ROUND 4|ROUND 5|ROUND 6|ROUND 7

	1|Cam Newton|QB
Some Lions fans wanted Aaron Curry. Some Rams fans wanted Ndamukong Suh. They got Matt Stafford and Sam Bradford. Carolina needs a QB, and hate him or love him, Newton is the best option under center.
	2|Marcell Dareus|DT
Robert Quinn wouldn't surprise me here, but I'm sticking with Dareus for now. Denver's defense is extremely weak through the middle, and Dareus would give them the anchor they've been missing up front.
	3|Patrick Peterson|CB
I don't see Gabbert as a legitimate option for the Bills, and although they could have their pick of pass rushers, it's hard to see Peterson slipping past them. It all depends on whether they want to cover WR or beat up QB.
	4|AJ Green|WR
It's hard to mock this spot without knowing Carson Palmer's future in Cincy, but there's no doubt Green is a better player than any QB on the board. Palmer may be back; Ochocinco and/or TO won't.
	5|Tyron Smith|OT
Ken Whisenhunt wants needs to win now, making a project at QB an unlikely target. Smith is overrated, but he's too full of potential at a position too valuable to fall much further. Someone will reach for him.
	6|Julio Jones|WR
All the talk about Cleveland's lack of faith in Colt McCoy seems premature at best (and idiotic at worst), and I think he's got at least one year left. Jones' presence would really open things up for this offense.
	7|Von Miller|OLB
Miller's fall just makes things easier on the Niners. I don't see Harbaugh going after Gabbert, and I think he can work with Alex Smith for at least a year. A serious pass-rusher would ease the load on the secondary.
	8|Nick Fairley|DT
Albert Haynesworth left a predictably massive hole in the middle of Tennessee's front. Fairley plays with the same demeanor, and he'd give the Titans a nasty difference maker on the line once again.
	9|Robert Quinn|OLB
Talk about a no-brainer scenario for Dallas. There's no OT left worth the ninth pick, and since Jerry Jones hates blockers anyway, Quinn is a cinch selection. Good luck stopping him with DeMarcus Ware on the other side.
	10|Mark Ingram|RB
There's talk that Ingram could fall out of Round 1 entirely, but if Ryan Mathews can go 12th, then I have to believe Ingram can go top 10. Shanahan usually waits on RBs, and they could move back for Locker, but Ingram is a perfect fit.
	11|P. Amukamara|CB
I don't like the idea of going right back and grabbing another young corner, but it's clear Houston won't spend big bucks on a free agent option. You can't beat Peyton Manning without better DBs.
	12|Blaine Gabbert|QB
Anyone ever seen a Viking run? The sprint to the podium should be fun to watch if Gabbert slips all the way to 12. Maybe it's a stretch, but the talent at other positions makes a QB tumble entirely possible.
	13|Da'Quan Bowers|DE
Detroit needs to protect Matt Stafford. And they need to get stronger in the secondary. So what do they do? They take the best available player, like they do every year. This could be an insane D-line.
	14|Corey Liuget|DT
I like Liuget, but I'm not sure he's the penetrating force some think. Of course, even if he's just a solid plug up front, he'd help shore up a defensive line in need of some new blood in the middle. Spags likes D-linemen.
	15|Ryan Mallett|QB
The biggest smear campaign in the draft doesn't concern Cam Newton (sorry, Nolan), it's being waged against Mallett. His teammates love him, and he's the best passer in the class. Chad Henne is not the answer.
	16|Aaron Williams|S
I've been on the "Aaron Williams will be the third DB off the board" train for a while. Jacksonville needs help in the secondary, and if Williams doesn't work out at corner, he could develop into a Malcolm Jenkins style safety.
	17|Cameron Jordan|DE
It'll either be Jordan or JJ Watt here if New England stays put, and while I think very highly of Watt, Jordan is my top-rated DE. His experience in the 3-4 and added ability to consistently rush the passer should give him the edge.
	18|Ryan Kerrigan|OLB
San Diego is always tough to mock, and although their need for D-line help is well documented, I find it hard to believe they'll value a 5-tech (JJ Watt) over a pass-rusher like Kerrigan. Either way, they need front seven help.
	19|A. Castonzo|RB
The Giants aren't ready to give up on William Beatty, who's still young and developing, but they do need more answers in front of Eli Manning. Castonzo is a good value pick at 19, and he's polished enough to start early.
	20|Jabaal Sheard|DE
Aldon Smith, Justin Houston and even Watt (again) make sense here, but Sheard is a guy I think will surprise on draft day. He's technically sound, relentless and should give this team an edge presence on defense.
	21|Gabe Carimi|OT
Ryan O'Callaghan is a free agent, and Kansas City has to give Matt Cassel time to find Dwayne Bowe, Tony Moeaki and no one else. Carimi could start out at RT and possibly challenge Branden Albert at LT in the future.
	22|Nate Solder|OT
Solder fits what Indy wants to do up front better than the remaining first-round tackles, and although he's not a finished product, the Colts can't afford to be picky when drafting protection for Peyton.
	23|Mike Pouncey|OL
The Eagles have had a thing for big, beastly blockers in the past, but that could change now that Howard Mudd is running the O-line. Either way, Philly needs help up front, and Pouncey is the best available.
	24|Derek Sherrod|OT
Jermon Bushrod and Jon Stinchcomb underperformed last season, and Bushrod is looking at free agency. I'm not sold on Charles Brown, and protecting Drew Brees has to be Priority 1 for this franchise.
	25|Jake Locker|QB
Sure, his senior season played out like a scene from Unnecessary Roughness, but he's been predictably strong this offseason, and the potential is there. With Hass in the fold, Seattle won't have to rush Locker into action.
	26|M. Wilkerson|DE
Wilkerson is a guy I'm really coming around on, and while Baltimore may have more pressing needs, DE Cory Redding is only one year from free agency. Haloti Ngata is poised for a big deal, but you can never have too many DL.
	27|L. Hankerson|WR
Same ole, same ole here. The Falcons will look for a four-year player who was a recognized leader with good production. They need a legitimate option opposite Roddy White, and Hankerson fits their criteria.
	28|Danny Watkins|OL
Even though they already took a 5-tech in this mock, I'm tempted to give NE another one in JJ Watt. However, Watkins fits their mold and fills a huge need. His age isn't a problem, either, because the Pats are built to win now.
	29|Marcus Cannon|OT
Nearly every year, one less-heralded OT sneaks into the first round. Cannon's versatility and rare athleticism for a prospect his size should make him that guy, and Chicago pretty much has to address their issues up front.
	30|Jon Baldwin|WR
The needs on defense are no secret, but the most important aspect of building a Super Bowl winner for Rex Ryan is continuing the development of Mark Sanchez. At least one of their current WR will be gone.
	31|Jimmy Smith|CB
Believe it or not, CB has been the most drafted position in the past 10 first rounds. That means Smith could go much earlier, but after the secondary collapsed in the Super Bowl, Pittsburgh won't hesitate if he falls.
	32|JJ Watt|DE
Some have Watt in the top 10, and pretty much everyone has him in the top 25, but I think he could fall. He's a 5-tech, pure and simple, and although he's a great one, someone will unexpectedly drop in this draft.

ROUND 1|ROUND 2|ROUND 3|ROUND 4|ROUND 5|ROUND 6|ROUND 7

3/20/11

1|CAR|Cam Newton|QB|Auburn

It’s not about his less-than-stellar combine throwing session, which wasn’t that important anyway.  The top QB usually floats to the top when the first team has any need for a passer, and there’s no reason not to take a risk on a 6-05 250 passer with 4.58 speed. Especially since he could be cheaper.

2|DEN|Marcell Dareus|DL|Alabama

Da’Quan Bowers still has a shot, but after releasing the two guys most likely to start at DT, Denver may be thinking inside.  Dareus had a great combine, and he’s supremely athletic at 320 pounds.  The Broncos need a difference-maker up front, and it wouldn’t hurt to stop the run this year.

3|BUF|Patrick Peterson|CB|LSU

Buffalo didn’t really hide the fact that last year’s CJ Spiller pick had a lot to do with bringing excitement to the franchise.  So while Patrick Peterson and Marcel Dareus would both fill needs, Peterson gets the flash nod.  There’s room for improvement in the secondary, and PP7′s a rare talent.

4|CIN|Von Miller|OLB|Texas A&M

Linebackers tend to fall a little further than some, but Miller might be locked in to the top-five.  He was excellent in Mobile and Indy, and although Cinci runs a 4-3, he can still be a terror rushing the passer, a decent need in a division with Ben Roethlisberger and Joe Flacco.

5|ARI|Julio Jones|WR|Alabama

I think AJ Green is still the better option, but Jones was powerful at the combine, and his numbers could push him to the top of the WR class.  Arizona has other needs, but Julio is pretty pro-ready, and covering both Jones and Larry Fitzgerald might reopen this offense.  A stretch, but not impossible.

6|CLE|AJ Green|WR|Georgia

A dream scenario for Cleveland.  Marcell Dareus is already off the board, so the decision becomes that much easier.  Bowers would be considered, but Green is simply too great a value and a fit to pass up here.  He’s a cursive player who moves fluidly and accelerates out of his breaks.  Not a bad high-pointer, either.

7|SF|Da’Quan Bowers|DE|Clemson

This is more about the fact that I can’t see Bowers falling out of the top-seven, but it’s not impossible.  Some still think Bowers can stand up in a 3-4, and he could pack on a few pounds at 280 and play down, too.  Either way, he’s an elite prospect, and a team in need of a pass rush might not have a choice.

8|TEN|Nick Fairley|DT|Auburn

Fairley was very athletic and fast at the combine, but that’s not really surprising.  Neither is the fact that he’s not 6-05 (he came in at 6037).  Still, he’s a forceful player who excels at disrupting opponents’ backfields.  The Titans could use a true stud up front, and Fairley’s another guy who won’t fall too far.

9|DAL|Robert Quinn|OLB|UNC

If Jerry Jones is serious about letting Jason Garrett handle more personnel decisions, then this could be an OT.  However, that’s never been the case in Dallas, and Robert Quinn’s elite athleticism and flash should be attractive.  Dallas’s defense has other needs, but it’s time to find a legitimate option across from DeMarcus Ware.

10|WAS|Blaine Gabbert|QB|Missouri

If Gabbert falls this far, Mike Shanahan might cry.  He’s an athletic quarterback with a big arm, and that’s the kind of guy Shanahan covets.  He’s not a finished product, but neither was Jay Cutler, and that offense certainly opened up.  Plus, if Shanny can get that out of Rex Grossman, imagine what he can do with Gabbert.

11|HOU|Prince Amukamara|CB|Nebraska

I’m not too keen on Houston going corner here, and they may still add a veteran, but there aren’t any 3-4 pass-rushers really worth the pick, and Amukamara can’t fall too far after laying a 4.37 on the Indy table.  Even if the position is addressed via free agency, you can never have too many cover guys when you currently have none.

12|MIN|Tyron Smith|OT|USC

I wanted to bump Smith up to the Cardinals, but I’d still like to see him workout with his added weight.  Either way, an offensive tackle will be taken in the first 12 picks, and Smith seems the likely candidate to go first.  He’s a supremely athletic player with great strength and length, but he’s young, and still a work-in-progress.

13|DET|Nate Solder|OT|Colorado

A run on OTs is coming somewhere.  This could still be Cameron Jordan, but I don’t think Jimmy Smith is an option, which leaves Solder or one of his blocking counterparts.  Someone has to protect Matt Stafford, and although this might go against BPA Detroit, the Lions strayed from that path to take Stafford in the first place.

14|STL|Cameron Jordan|DE|Cal

Jordan is another guy who could go higher after his unblockable week in Mobile and a strong combine.  He played some 5-tech in college, but I think his pass-rushing abilities might be better suited for the 4-3.  The Rams are looking for impact players on the D-line, and Jordan’s the best possible option.

15|MIA|Mike Pouncey|OL|Florida

Part of this is just wanting someone other than a running back here, and it’s admittedly a little high for Pouncey.  However, Miami needs more help at center and guard, and Pouncey offers a decent option at one and an excellent option at the other.  Certainly a pick that could change, but it’s possible.

16|JAX|Mark Ingram|RB|Alabama

I have a hard time seeing Ingram falling out of the top-16, even if it means he’s taken by a surprise team.  MJD is owed some dough, but he might be on his last legs, and Rashad Jennings did a lot of his damage against sub-par rushing defenses.  Maybe someone trades into the spot, but Jacksonville likes accomplished college prospects.

17|NE(OAK)|JJ Watt|DE|Wisconsin

A possibly perfect scenario for the Patriots, who need good fortune like Charlie Sheen needs publicity.  Watt is one of the best 5-techs in the class, and he has the length New England wants to fill the Seymour hole.  He’s a relentless, heady player who fits the Pats mold and helps them restock their D-line.

18|SD|Martez Wilson|OLB|Illinois

Wilson had a stellar combine, which wasn’t surprising, and it should have some scouts going back to look at his film.  I still think his best fit is as a 3-4 rush ‘backer, and while that’s the spot the Chargers would draft him to play, he also has experience on the inside, another San Diego need.

19|NYG|Anthony Castonzo|OT|BC

The Giants have taken Castonzo in most of my mock drafts this season, and I’m not changing it now.  For a Rhodes Scholarship nominee, he sure found a way to surprise people with his intelligence in Indy.  New York needs a final answer on the front line, and Castonzo is their type of guy.

20|TB|Justin Houston|DE|Georgia

There are a lot of split views on Houston after the combine.  Some say he proved he could stand up in the NFL while others say he cemented his status as a 4-3 DE.  I think he ends up as the latter, which is great news for Tampa.  They have talent inside; now it’s time to find an elite edge-rusher.

21|KC|Ryan Kerrigan|OLB|Purdue

Kerrigan’s played his own polarizing game this offseason, and though the general consensus seems to be shifting toward 4-3 DE, I think he fits KC’s version of the 30-front.  He can set the edge and anchor against the run better than some think, but he’s also an unyielding pass-rusher.

22|IND|Derek Sherrod|OT|Miss State

Sherrod is the guy the Colts might want anyway (aside from Tyron Smith, who they know they won’t get), so it’s not a big deal that Castonzo and Solder are off the board.  He’s not making as big an offseason splash as his competition, but his tape is some of the best, and he’s the solid, workman prospect the Colts usually target.

23|PHI|Gabe Carimi|OT|Wisconsin

Philadelphia just needs to solidify the situation in front of Mike Vick.  Carimi has the size that Andy Reid likes in his offensive linemen, and he’s been somewhat unfairly pegged as a run-blocking right tackle only.  That may be where he ends up, though the Eagles plan on starting a left-handed QB anyway.

24|NO|Adrian Clayborn|DE|Iowa

I had the Saints taking Mikel Leshoure until Pierre Thomas inked a four-year deal, and although they signed Shaun Rogers, I don’t think they’re done bolstering the D-line.  With no OLBs worth the pick, Clayborn makes a ton of sense.  He’s exactly the type of high-motor, stout DE New Orleans likes.

25|SEA|Aldon Smith|DE|Missouri

If Jason Pierre-Paul can go 15th, then maybe Aldon Smith is long gone by this spot.  Still, his injury history combined with a less than stellar showing in Indy could push him down.  I still like him with his hand in the dirt in a 4-3, and since Seattle’s version needs a star up front, the pick makes sense.

26|BAL|Jimmy Smith|CB|Colorado

And Ryan Mallett thought he had it bad…  Jimmy Smith’s character has been dragged through the mud since Indy, though most of his problems are years in the past.  Baltimore has taken a few chances in this department before, and considering Smith’s immense talent and the Ravens’ immense needs at CB, it’s hard to see them passing on him this late.

27|ATL|Leonard Hankerson|WR|Miami

I know.  But hear me out.  In the first round, Atlanta takes four-year players who were team captains with no off-field issues at all. Hankerson’s one of the last few guys who fits that mold and also fills a need.  Michael Jenkins and Harry Douglas are not proper complements for Roddy White, and Hankerson could be reached for.

28|NE|Brooks Reed|OLB|Arizona

Brooks Reed has really helped himself since the season ended, and that’s sometimes a red flag of it’s own, but he has some decent tape, and he can do what the Patriots ask their OLBs to do.  He’ll get physical with the tight ends he faces, and he can hold his ground when run at.  Maybe he’s not the guy here, but the Pats could use another pass rusher.

29|CHI|Phil Taylor|DT|Baylor

After debuting in the first round at 11, Taylor takes a big fall here, but I still like him.  Chicago may want to go with the local product and seemingly better fit, Corey Liuget, but Taylor’s blend of power, size and speed is rare, and guys like him always have a shot at the first round.  It’s not like the Bears are above an upgrade inside.

30|NYJ|Jon Baldwin|WR|Pitt

I thought Baldwin looked more like a 4.5 guy on the field, and that’s the range he hit in Indy despite predictions that he’d run a sub-4.4.  Still, his time is pretty damn fast, and he brings just a little size to the table, as well, at 6043 228.  The Jets can’t afford to strip Mark Sanchez of weapons while he’s still developing.

31|PIT|Danny Watkins|OL|Baylor

I thought Watkins was one of the best offensive linemen in Mobile, regardless of specific position.  He breaks down well in space when getting to the second level, and he has better length than his height would suggest.  A future at OT isn’t out of the question, but for now, he’d fill a hole inside.  His age isn’t that big a deal.

32|GB|Ben Ijalana|OL|Villanova

The Packers will probably just trade out of this pick if the first 31 go this way, but protecting Aaron Rodgers has to be a top priority for a team looking to snag a few more rings.  Ijalana is an underrated guy who just needs a little prime-time coaching to reach his full potential.  He has the versatility Green Bay admires in their linemen.

Maybe it's a stretch, but big Phil Taylor has plenty to celebrate in the latest mock.

ROUND 1|ROUND 2|ROUND 3|ROUND 4|ROUND 5|ROUND 6|ROUND 7

1|CAR|Cameron Newton|QB|Auburn

It’s not impossible.  The top QB usually floats to the top if there’s even a hint of a need, and we all know Newton will continue to rise during the offseason.  Some have completely written off the chance that Carolina goes for a passer, but Jimmy Clausen was uninspiring and a new regime could want their guy. Not everyone had Sam Bradford here this time last year.

2|DEN|Da’Quan Bowers|DE|Clemson

Cecil Lammey of FootballGuys.com and 87.7 FM The Ticket in Denver told us on DraftCast that the Broncos have zeroed in on Bowers at the two spot.  It makes a lot of sense.  Denver’s going to need an impact defensive lineman since they’ve ignored the area for so long, and new head man John Fox had a lot of success with his last freakish defensive end from the ACC.

3|BUF |Robert Quinn|DE|UNC

Here’s another guy that some don’t have as high, but Quinn could rocket soon.  He’s going to need to bring a shovel and some lime to the combine because he’s going to kill it, and I think he’ll check out medically.  The year-long suspension hurts, but he’s simply too talented to last long if he works out as well as anticipated.  Buffalo could take a Gabbert gamble or add Nick Fairley, but they really need a pass-rusher.

4|CIN|AJ Green|WR|Georgia

A calmer pick.  Carson Palmer may not be around, but it won’t matter who the QB is with the receiving corps taking a huge hit.  Green has the potential to be one of the best receivers to come out since Calvin Johnson, and he’s a hard-working athlete who won’t cause a lot of drama. Plus, he can get downfield in hurry and high points the ball exceptionally well.  This offense needs to open up.

5|ARI|Patrick Peterson|CB|LSU

There’s a lot of talk about Peterson making the move to safety, but just because he can play over the top doesn’t mean he should.  He’s a big corner who can run like the wind and has the strength to get physical at the line.  He’s not as polished as his hype would suggest, but there’s no doubt he has the potential be an elite lockdown CB at the next level. He’d look good across from DRC.

6|CLE|Marcel Dareus|DL|Alabama

There are definitely more exciting options on the table, but although Dareus hasn’t earned as much hype this offseason, there’s a better-than-advertised chance he could come off the board before Nick Fairley.  One reason is his schematic versatility.  I think he’s a much better 5-tech than his Auburn counterpart, and he can definitely play inside in a 40 front.

7|SF|Von Miller|OLB|Texas A&M

Miller churned out a ton of print at the Senior Bowl.  He was on everyone’s most impressive list, and in person, he really does look like an animal.  He’s stronger than you’d expect at 237 pounds, and he has the frame to add bulk.  His first step is insane, and he’s solid in coverage.  San Fran just needs to take the most impactful guy they can get.

8|TEN|Nick Fairley|DT|Auburn

Yeah, I know this seems low.  And it’s got nothing to do with character concerns.  I like a little viciousness in my defensive linemen.  It’s just that Fairley is still somewhat raw, and I don’t see him as a successful 5-tech.  He needs to be penetrating, not anchoring.  Anyway, Tennessee needs a QB, but they also need a violent playmaker at defensive tackle.

9|DAL|Nate Solder|OT|Colorado

This week’s hot offensive lineman is Tyron Smith, but I still think Solder is the first OT off the board.  He’s an incredibly athletic former TE, which worked well for Jason Smith in a class that was unsettled at the top.  He sits into his stance better than most 6-08 guys, and although he’s still a work in progress, his upside as a protector for Tony Romo is sky-high.

10|WAS|Jake Locker|QB|Washington

This shouldn’t be that surprising.  QB and OT are the two positions that see the highest volume of reaches, though Locker’s not as severe a stretch here as some think.  He has the intangibles and physical tools necessary to be a first-rounder at the position, and he should bounce back at the combine and his pro day.  Mike Shanahan wants his guy, and Locker fits that mold perfectly.

11|HOU|Phil Taylor|DL|Baylor

It happens every year in the draft, so why not 2011.  Someone starts climbing after a strong Senior Bowl and then parlays an impressive workout season into a lofty pick.  Taylor is much more athletic than some are saying, and he fits Wade Phillips’ one-gap 3-4 like a glove.  He’s a quicker guy than most his size and can actually play some 5-tech, as well.  Maybe Houston is set up front with Shaun Cody or Earl Mitchell, but come on…

12|MIN|Blaine Gabbert|QB|Missouri

First no one though Gabbert would come out.  Then everyone pegged him as a third-rounder  Then he was the best QB in the class.  And now he’s falling back to earth a bit and straight into the hands of the Vikings.  Minnesota may say they want to wait until the second round to grab a passer, but that tune should change if Gabbert falls to them.

13|DET|Cameron Jordan|DE|California

Detroit’s going to take the best player available who even slightly addresses a need.  I don’t know why they’d suddenly reach for an OT after not doing so the past two years, which leaves Jordan and Mark Ingram.  With a new CBA in place, they’d be able to afford another first-rounder after taking Jahvid Best, but Jordan would provide excellent KVB insurance at a position of greater value.

14|STL|Julio Jones|WR|Alabama

Here’s another consensus pick, and since it’s all the way down at 14, it probably won’t happen.  Still, if Jones somehow tumbles this far and avoids all the teams that will trade up, he’d make a lot of sense.  The Rams’ receiving corps is underrated when healthy, but they still lack a true dominant No. 1 option.  Jones is an athletic freak and a beast after the catch.  Josh McDaniels would love him.

15|MIA|Mikel Leshoure|RB|Illinois

I think Mark Ingram is the best back in this class, but Leshoure should test well enough to challenge him for the top spot.  Plus, he doesn’t have the same injury history.  Miami may ignore RB, but that’ll be hard to do if both Ricky Williams and Ronnie Brown end up elsewhere.  Leshoure’s a big, powerful back that fits the system, and he’s a highly underrated receiver out of the backfield.

16|JAX|Prince Amukamara|CB|Nebraska

Amukamara’s another guy that I think might drop further than a lot of projections show.  He’s great in press, but he doesn’t have excellent speed or off-man skills.  Still, he possesses enough raw ability to develop into a solid corner in Jacksonville’s scheme, and his overall value would be too much to pass up for a team in a division with Peyton Manning and Matt Schaub.

17|NE(OAK)|Ryan Kerrigan|OLB|Purdue

I still think Kerrigan can stand up at the next level.  Maybe not for teams that require crazy athleticism from their OLB, but for a team like New England, Kerrigan makes sense.  The Pats want an OLB who is big, strong, plays the run well and can beat up the tight end.  Kerrigan’s no slouch as a pass rusher, either.  He just seems like too strong a fit.

18|SD|Aldon Smith|OLB|Missouri

Aldon Smith is too athletic, too fast, too dangerously full of upside to fall much farther in April.  Unless he bombs at the combine, he looks like a top 20 pick as a pass-rusher.  The Chargers could use another edge guy after Larry English’s disappointing start, and Smith would be just curveball enough for San Diego.  An offensive tackle or defensive end would work, too.

19|NYG|Anthony Costanzo|OT|BC

Anthony Costanzo just seems like a future Giants lineman.  They need a solid answer at the left tackle spot, and Costanzo can definitely play on the right side if needed.  He’s a heady player who has excellent experience at a school known for producing quality players at his position.  Gabe Carimi has a shot if Costanzo is off the board.

20|TB|Adrian Clayborn|DE|Iowa

Adrian Clayborn’s hustle has been off the charts this season… When he’s headed to the sideline to catch his breath. Still, he’s a great base end in the 4-3 who can anchor against the run and provide a solid pass rush at his worst.  At his best, he might be the missing piece on a Tampa front that couldn’t find a QB with 12 Garmins and Magellan.  Boom, roasted.

21|KC|Martez Wilson|OLB|Illinois

Martez Wilson is going to amaze at the combine.  He’s a freak who should rank near the top of his position group in nearly every test.  There are some concerns about his ability to play in coverage and work in space, but there’s no denying his talent as a pass-rusher.  He has the length to move outside in a 3-4, but the fact that he also fits inside makes him a solid bet for the first round.

22|IND|Tyron Smith|OT|USC

Everybody loves this guy right now.  He’s extremely athletic, and he showed pretty well against Pac 10 competition last season, so it makes some sense.  But he’s also rawer than a lot of people think, and I don’t know how well he’ll perform when forced to add weight.  I see some William Beatty/Charles Brown, but Indy has to protect Peyt0n.  And it’s not like Smith is some slouch.

23|PHI|Derek Sherrod|OT|Mississippi State

Again, it’s all about protecting the quarterback.  Mike Vick wore down toward the end of last season, and part of his falter can be blamed on a carousel of offensive linemen.  Sherrod should be big enough to satisfy Andy Reid’s size requirements, and I think he’d be a Michael Oher-esque steal this late.

24|NO|Mark Ingram|RB|Alabama

Look, there’s no doubt Ingram is the best back in this class.  But there’s also a sizable chance that he doesn’t run well this offseason, and running backs are losing some value in the NFL.  Of course, if he’s staring the Saints in the face at 24, he could find a home in a hurry.  Reggie Bush won’t be around much longer, Pierre Thomas is always hurt and Chris Ivory isn’t the answer, which should make Ingram, an underrated pass-catcher, a tempting option here.

25|SEA|Mike Pouncey|OG|Florida

Seattle might have something with the Marshawn Lynch/Justin Forsett Cal connection, but they won’t maximize the situation without better blockers.  Pouncey struggled some as a senior center, but he’s an excellent guard who should be helped by the Steelers success of his twin brother, Maurkice.  Not a flashy pick, but probably a smart one.

26|BAL|Jimmy Smith|CB|Colorado

Baltimore could look at JJ Watt here, and they’d hypothetically have their choice of the top safety options.  And even a speedy receiver would make sense.  Hopefully, however, they’ll finally hit the CB problem head on.  Smith is an aggressive player in run support, and he has the size to hang in a physical division.  Gotta go corner after completely ignoring the position last year.

27|ATL|JJ Watt|DE|Wisconsin

This would actually surprise me a little bit since Atlanta hasn’t taken an underclassman in Round 1 since Thomas Dimitroff took over, but Watt falls in line with a lot of the other traits he seems to covet in draftees.  He’s a high-motor, intelligent player, and although he might be a better fit in a 3-4, he’d still be an excellent value/need option this late in the first.

28|NE|Gabe Carimi|OT|Wisconsin

Whenever I have two guys from the same team going back-t0-back, it always bothers me.  Like in high school when you’re taking a test and four answers in a row are “A.”  Matt Light may or may not be back, but even if he returns, it might make sense to find a right-side (or possibly a left-side) starter for when Light eventually retires.  Someone’s going to have to start opposite Sebastian Vollmer.

29|CHI|Jon Baldwin|WR|Pitt

I wouldn’t take Jon Baldwin in the first round.  He certainly has the potential to develop into a dominant player, but he’s not there yet, and I don’t think he’ll run anywhere near the 4.3 everyone seems to think he has in the bag.  Either way, Chicago needs a big body to go over the middle and make tough catches.  They need some size and strength at the position.

30|NYJ|Akeem Ayers|OLB|UCLA

Ayers may not fall this far, but with Von Miller’s recent surge and Aldon Smith’s hype, he could become the odd man out in a sense.  Not that playing for the Jets would be a bad thing.  New York can afford to develop Ayers as a pass-rusher instead of hustling him into full-time duty right away, and he’s as athletic as they come with an almost uncanny knack for making clutch plays.

31|PIT|Danny Watkins|OG|Baylor

He’s getting some good press for it, but I still don’t know if Watkins has received enough praise for his Senior Bowl week.  He looked dominant inside at guard, and he was one of the best offensive linemen overall when it came to breaking down and making a block at the second level.  Pitt needs some help up front, and Watkins and center Maurkice Pouncey could form an impenetrable interior wall.

32|GB|Justin Houston|OLB|Georgia

At least three running backs have gone in the first round of each of the past three drafts, making Ryan Williams a sneaky sleeper option, but that move feels more forced than taking Houston.  Of course, if Clay Matthews continues to improve, Green Bay may not need anyone other than Frank Zombo across from him.  At this point, Houston seems to be the best option, but like I said, I could see Williams or Miami CB Brandon Harris.

ROUND 1|ROUND 2|ROUND 3|ROUND 4|ROUND 5|ROUND 6|ROUND 7