Mike’s Mock Draft

2/2/10

The NFL Draft is one of the greatest, most unpredictable, speculative events in sports. Everybody and their grandma is putting out a mock these days, and the only thing we are finding out is that even the pros aren’t even close to right. Very few people knew that Cleveland would trade back to the Jet’s pick in the 2009 draft for a pile of Eric Mangini’s former Jets players. While it was easy to predict that Al Davis was going to draft the speedy wide receiver from Maryland, most people lived in doubt.

While I will be the first person to say my picks aren’t perfect, I will also be the first to say that nobody’s are. Over the course of the next few months, I will try to look back into the recent past of the draft to see if I can debunk some of the hidden trends in drafting.

1.) STL — Jimmy Clausen, QB, Notre Dame

The Rams would be insane to not take Clausen with this pick. Clausen has great touch, a strong arm, and has continued to improve drastically throughout his college career. In my mock on September 17th I was one of the (if not the) first people to denote Clausen as the top QB prospect, and he has since risen to the near consensus best. Clausen wasn’t able to take Notre Dame to that special BCS place, but he kept the Irish in every game this season. It seems like so many people hate Clausen and site his easy schedule as a reason to bust, but he faced eight bowl caliber teams this season and threw 20 TDs to just 2 picks against them. He cannot be blamed for problems on defense and the inability to run the ball, and he is capable of getting Drew Brees production.

Todd McShay can argue that DL is a bigger need, but unless that Rams want to set themselves back another year they had better take a QB. There is so much more upside in taking the top QB and a 2nd round DT like Jared Odrick than there is walking out of the draft with Ndamukong Suh and then having to reach later on a QB like Tony Pike if they want to be a contender any time soon. The QB spot has more positional value, and the QB class this year is very thin at non-project players.

2.) DET — Ndamukong Suh, DT, Nebraska

Update: For some reason a lot of Lions fans have chirped in about how the OL is not a big need and how Jeff Backus is underrated. But Jeff Backus is possibly the worst LT in the league and is the biggest need this year. Backus has averaged nearly 8 penalties and 11 sacks the last four seasons which is awful (and his 4 penalties and 8 sacks this season don’t help the argument). The team can draft all of the defense it wants but unless you want Dante Culpepper playing in half the games each year then you had better get a new OL. The OL allowed nearly 3 sacks per game and they had only one game with fewer than two sacks a game this season. I don’t care how sexy Suh is, the team won’t win games until they draft 2-5 replacements for the line.

So why won’t the Lions take a position of greater value here? I’ll let you in on a little bit of a secret about Jim Schwartz’s draft history when he was at the Titans. From 1999-2008, the Titans took ten defensive players out of the 17 picks they had in the first two rounds and only one OL (in the 2nd). It is no wonder why Detroit hired him, because he brought his zero OL philosophy to the team. I will be the first person to say that Detroit needs a LT, but they ignore the position on a yearly basis, and only draft a “top” tackle the year before they draft a QB early. Luckily for the Lions Suh is literally a house of spears that can destroy any OL.

3.) TB — Gerald McCoy, DT, Oklahoma

The Bucs have an interesting dilemma with the third pick and it seems fair to say that either Gerald McCoy, Eric Berry or Russell Okung will be the taken here. Okung is unlikely because even though Donald had 8 penalties and 8 sacks this last season, he still is an ok tackle. Berry is also possible here but safety holds little positional value with the third pick, and McCoy is just as a good of a prospect as Berry is. Most people also do not realize that the 2010 DT class is a lot thinner than the very deep safety and OT class, so with the opportunity to hit Gerald McCoy seems so much more valuable.

4.) WAS — Sam Bradford, QB, Oklahoma

Big name? Check.

Position of need? Check.

Positional value? Check.

New coach wanting “his guy” on the field? Check.

The Skins need to take a QB early in this draft and even though Bradford is a bigger question than he was a year ago he has too much potential to not go early. A lot of people still have Bradford at the top of the QB list but Bradford has two years of starting experience, comes from a semi-spread system, and has no experience on a team with mediocre talent (unless you count his game against BYU where he wasn’t blocked and had no passing options).

5.) KC — Terrence Cody, NT, Alabama

Update: To no surprise, I got a lot of hate and confusion for taking Cody here, but for now I have to stick with it. The Chiefs passed on the “best player in the draft” last year to reach for a huge need, and there are only two 3-4 nose tackles worth taking in the first three rounds this year compared to the 5+ tackles or safeties that can be found in the 2nd round alone. Cody is overweight for any position, but he is a monster of a player, and has a huge wingspan and huge hands that plugs up the OL.

The Chiefs have theoretically drafted well with their positional need in the 1st round the last few years, but unfortunately they still need help on both lines. The OL is a mess right now, but the Chiefs were 30th against the rush, and 31st in creating sacks. While I am worried about Terrence Cody for the same exact reasons that I didn’t like Andre Smith from Alabama, nose tackles might be the hardest position to find right now, and the Chiefs will love his potential. Andre Smith was an overweight slob that no-showed to the combine or the senior bowl and he was still drafted high. We will see how this pick develops, but with two picks in the second round there will be plenty of great offensive tackles left. If he shows up a 20-pounds less and determined to go be drafted then don’t be surprised to see him explode up in the draft.

6.) SEA — Eric Berry, S, Tennessee

If a top QB hits this spot then you can pretty much guarantee that the Hawks will pick him up. But because Bradford and Clausen are gone the Seahawks grab up Berry faster than they did Aaron Curry last year, and he would be a great pick if they didn’t have so many other needs with a higher positional value. The Hawks must look for a future QB, help on the DL and a rejuvenated OL early in this draft but Berry gets the nod for now.

7.) CLE — Joe Haden, CB, Florida

This pick was Dez Bryant but a receiver with the 7th pick is a slight reach, even with the glaring need. Eric Mangini draft history would tell us that he will likely trade around with this pick, but it would also tell us that he could be looking to take the best CB in the draft. If I were Mike Holmgren in this place I would take an impact player like Rolando McClain to rejuvenate the defense from the heart, but there is no major problem in taking a great player like Haden.

8.) OAK — Bruce Campbell, OT, Maryland

Remember last year when Evil Al took speed over common knowledge early? Well he does it again by taking Bruce Campbell as the first OT taken. In reality Bruce Campbell has some injury concerns that should take him out of the top-10 of the draft, but luckily for Campbell (if you want to call it lucky) Al Davis has a soft spot in his heart for injuries. Davis also loves athletic players and the 6’7, 310 pound workout warrior is no exception.

9.) BUF — Russell Okung, OT, Oklahoma State

The Bills likely won’t be chipping in to buy a billboard for Okung, but if he actually falls this far they should be beyond excited at their steal. A new coach will likely want “his guy” under center, and I wouldn’t be shocked to see a ticket seller like Tebow go here, but the Bills can only consider a QB here if one of the two top guys fall. I actually could see a free agent coming in (Chad Pennington seems like a viable idea) to play while a fresh face sits and learns for a season or two.

10.) DEN (from CHI) — Dez Bryant, WR, Oklahoma State

One of the big rumors swirling around Denver is that Brandon Marshall will be traded this offseason and if he is the Broncos must find a weapon to play with. For some reason the team had a problem utilizing Eddie Royal and Tony Scheffler, so they must find a speedy homerun threat. Just like the Browns I would take a huge defensive threat like Rolando McClain, but if Marshall leaves then it would be hard to not replace him early.

11.) JAX — Jason Pierre-Paul, DE, South Florida

Everyone has been mocking Tebow to the Jags, and if they want to scrap a good QB in David Garrard to sell tickets then they might doom themselves for another season. But the Jags had only 14 sacks this season (11 less than any other team) and they need a ton of help on defense. Quentin Groves had zero sacks for the season and hasn’t looked like the player that they drafted a few years ago. Don’t be surprised to see any defensive player (especially from the state of Florida or the SEC) taken here, but Morgan gets the nod for now. Morgan looked a little bit weak against Bryan Bulaga in the Orange Bowl, but he had a good enough game to be a legit top-16 pick.

12.) MIA — Damian Williams, WR, USC

The Dolphins need a NT and could get some youth at rush linebacker (although Jason Taylor and Joey Porter were awesome this year), but the clear need for the team early is receiver. It is hard to mock another early receiver to the Dolphins, but they really need to address the position in the draft if they want to get to the next level. I wouldn’t be shocked to see anything taken here from Tebow, to Spiller to Dan Williams, but Damian gets the nod for now.

13.) SF — Rolando McClain, ILB, Alabama

If the 49ers are lucky enough to have Rolando McClain fall to them, then I don’t see any other possible pick here. McClain is a top notch linebacker with a few fixable problems, and I think he would become a pro-bowler with Mike Singletary as the coach. McClain will be the 2010 DROY, and if the 49ers have a good draft after him I don’t see any way that they team doesn’t contend for the division.

14.) SEA (from DEN) — Everson Griffen, DE, USC

The team gobbled up Eric Berry with the 6th pick and they must come out of the 2011 with one or even two solid RBs. Spiller has the potential to break for huge yards at any time, and he looks like the next Reggie Bush, but there is a good chance that a similar player like Jahvid Best will be available in the early 2nd round. Everson Griffen is a reach here especially with Morgan still on the board, but I would be shocked to see Carroll go against his guy.

15.) NYG — Brian Price, DT, UCLA

The Giants defense really struggled this season and they finished 30th in the league in scoring defense. Nobody would be shocked if any position on defense is taken, but the Giants typically draft well enough to know that they can take a great DT here and a solid safety like Morgan Burnett in the 2nd.

16.) SF (from CAR) — Bryan Bulaga, OT, Iowa

Barry Sims is actually coming off the best year of his career but he will turn 36 this season and the 49ers could use a major upgrade at RT. Bulaga is a great run-blocking OT who should be able to switch over to LT with ease when needed to. Bulaga is coming off a huge game against Derrick Morgan and there is no doubt that he is worthy of being one of the top-3 tackles taken.

17.) TEN — Derrick Morgan, DE, Georgia Tech

The Titans need to get a lot of youth and talent on defense out of this draft, and it will likely start with the DL or the DB. I think that a corner like Donovan Warren might get the nod with the pick but 17th might be a slight reach for their upside and talent. Morgan got absolutely destroyed by the Iowa offense (and even outrun by Ricky Stanzi), and he might fall once people watch more tape on him and realize that he often disappears during games.

18.) PIT — Earl Thomas, S, Texas

The Steelers must come out of this draft with a ton of depth on their OL, and they must find a backup for Troy Polamlu. The Steelers haven’t taken an offensive tackle in the first two rounds since the year 2000, but they must find a way to help Big Ben before he becomes a Broken Ben. If I were drafting here I would instantly draft Charles Brown, but a ball hawking safety like Earl Thomas gets the nod here.

19.) HOU — Taylor Mays, S, USC

The Texans started the season with a lot of problems on the DL, but they really did start to come through at the end. If Carlos Dunlap is at this pick I wouldn’t be shocked to see him get taken, but for the 2010 draft they must get a solid safety. Taylor Mays is an impact player that will add aggression and fear into the defense. He also has the potential to be one of the best safeties in the league if he can get a better nose for the ball.

20.) ATL — Brandon Graham, DE, Michigan

I am not a huge fan of trades in mock drafts, but there is a good chance that I could see the Falcons trade back about 5-10 picks to get better value on a OLB like Sean Weatherspoon. Since it can’t go as easily as that in mocks though, Brandon Graham gets the nod here. The team might need CB or OLB more, but Brandon Graham had such an impressive Senior Bowl and some teams will be dying to grab him.

21.) CIN — Jermaine Gresham, TE, Oklahoma

J.P. Foschi isn’t quite lighting the world on fire for the Bengals, and the receiving core was spotty this season. Gresham instantly adds a dimension that a growing team like the Bengals needs and Carson Palmer get’s a hopefully reliable receiver to the squad. The Bengals must find a bunch of reliable weapons to take some the pressure off of Ocho.

22.) NE — Carlos Dunlap, DE, Florida

If for some reason Carlos Dunlap falls this then it might be hard to not have the Patriots take him. Dunlap is a prototypical 4-3 end but he is a big enough specimen to play a 3-4 end or even possibly a 3-4 rush linebacker. Dunlap might be a little bit more Super Luigi than he is Super Mario, but he will have a huge combine and somebody will be leaping to grab him early.

23.) GB — Anthony Davis, OT, Rutgers

I have no idea how Aaron Rodgers is still standing after the regular season and there is no doubt that the Green Bay Packers must take a chance on a tackle here. When I see the very athletic Anthony Davis play I just don’t think he will be much more than a serviceable LT at the next level, but a lot of scouts see him as the second best OT in the draft.

24.) PHI — Sean Weatherspoon, OLB, Missouri

For the record this might be the hardest pick to mock this year because all of the positions of need for the Eagles have huge contracts tied. I have seen a lot of people mock a DE to the Eagles this year and I just don’t know that it is a huge need. Juqua Parker had 8 sacks in the regular season while Trent Cole had 12. Sean Weatherspoon might be a reach at 24th but with a glaring need at OLB, and a great Senior Bowl week it seems very possible that the vocal leader of the Missouri defense gets taken here.

25.) BAL — Brandon LaFell, WR, LSU

The Ravens need to get a ton of help in their receiving corps if they want to walk out of the draft winners. The team needs to get a speedy player like LaFell or Golden Tate to give Joe Flacco the deep target that he deserves. LaFell does get the nod here because of his size, possession skills, and his ability to produce in an offense like LSU’s.

26.) ARI — Kyle Wilson, CB, Boise State

Kurt Warner has retired and QB position easily has become the biggest need on the team. Matt “Beer Pong” Leinart is not going to be a starting QB and the Cards must act to get a QB early. I think a player like Tim Tebow could get gobbled up here but the team likely will give Beer Pong a chance and will look elsewhere. Kyle Wilson is a great corner who told Hunter in an interview that he could be running at least a 4.3 forty time at the combine, and if he does he won’t likely fall this far.

27.) DAL — Mike Iupati, OG, Idaho

If there is one thing that I know it is that Jerry Jones loves his men big, fast, and southern. The second thing I know is that he loves for his OL to be filled with strong giants that are Heavier than Rock. Iupati is getting Steve Hutchinson hype and while I don’t believe it he could easily be grabbed up in the bottom third of the first. Iupati could be potentially moved anywhere on the Dallas line and he could end up the steal of the draft.

28.) SD — Dan Williams, NT, Tennessee

The Chargers are a unique team in that they could use a ton of upgrades throughout the team and yet they are able to beat anyone. The Chargers could use a solid OT, an extra young RB, and pieces all over defense, including a major upgrade at nose tackle. Dan Williams is moving up draft boards because most draftniks wouldn’t want to touch Terrence Cody, but when it is all said and done I think Cody will go much sooner than Williams. A few people have brought up the potential to have Jared Odrick taken here, and it is very possible with the team’s struggles against the pass rush, but it will be much harder to find a bit of youth to eventually replace Jamaal Williams later in the draft than it would be to find a 3-4 end later.

29.) NYJ — Jerry Hughes, OLB, TCU

This pick could really go anywhere on the field and I wouldn’t even be shocked if it were traded for a player like Anquan Boldin. But the team needs to find DL and LB depth from this draft and Jerry Hughes might be the most pro-ready rush linebacker in the draft. There is also a good chance that in an uncapped year we will see Vernon Golston erased from the team. The rush linebacker position is a unique one this year because a player like Hughes, Sergio Kindle or Ricky Sapp could go as early as the top-20, or fall into the third round.

30.) MIN — CJ Spiller, RB, Clemson

Vikings fans will likely hate this pick, but I just don’t think a DB or a DT is a major need. And whether Minnesota wants to believe it or not they do have a problem with the run game. Adrian Peterson is at times the best in the game but he needs a changeup player, and maybe a player like Spiller can teach A.P how to hold on to a ball. I am not a huge fan of Spiller, but if he falls to the Vikings then he could become a huge steal of a player.

31.) IND — Donovan Warren, CB, Michigan

Players on the DL that don’t go to bowl games rarely get drafted in the first round, and last year the first DE taken who wasn’t in a bowl game was Lawrence Sidbury who went in the late 4th. Sidbury was from Richmond who won the FCS championship and the first real person from a bad team that was a DE taken was in the 6th. I just think history might hold Graham down, but the Colts have the luxury of “reaching” on one of the best players in this draft.

32.) NO — Navarro Bowman, OLB, Penn State

The Saints have a luxury pick this late in the 1st round and luckily for them they are able to use it on a player of need. Navarro Bowman is a player that could be taken 20th overall or 55th depending on a team’s needs, and he has got nothing but praise from the talking heads at ESPN. Bowman has had a few problems in the past so there is a good chance that he doesn’t get past the Bengals, but he could add a ton of depth to an already solid Saint defense.